The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner, and as always, the MVP race will be one of the most interesting parts of the season. The league is loaded with talented players that could win the title, but these 10 players have the best odds of winning the NFL’s most coveted individual award.
Before we begin, here are a few disclaimers. The “V” in MVP stands for “Valuable”, and NFL voters take that into consideration. The quarterback position is considerably more important than any other position, so every player on this list will be a passer. After all, there is a reason that we haven’t had a non-quarterback win the award since Adrian Peterson all the way back in 2012. Additionally, this list is not based on any posted odds, these are my personal rankings entering the season.
The 10 NFL MVP Frontrunners Entering the Season
10. Justin Fields
Justin Fields is an explosive athlete with a rocket arm that, up until this point in time, has shown flashes of potential but lacks the down-to-down consistency of a true franchise quarterback. If this description sounds familiar to you, it’s because it also describes Josh Allen entering his third season. The Chicago Bears clearly believe that Fields has what it takes to be a true franchise quarterback, and there is a chance that he puts it all together and makes a run at the NFL MVP award now that he has a decent supporting cast.
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) January 18, 2023
9. Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott only played 12 games last year but still led the league with 15 interceptions. That’s not good, but a deeper dive into the film shows that most of those turnovers were not his fault. At the end of the day, Prescott is still one of the better quarterbacks in the league, and he has a phenomenal supporting cast. CeeDee Lamb is an undisputed star, Brandin Cooks is a major upgrade at WR2, and Michael Gallup should improve now that he’s a year removed from his ACL injury.
8. Trevor Lawrence
If Trevor Lawrence from the second half of 2022 shows up, then he should be a serious contender for NFL MVP honors. While that small sample was probably indicative of who Lawrence will be in 2023, it’s not a guarantee. That uncertainty is holding Lawrence down in these rankings, but even if he’s not playing like the best quarterback in the world, he should be able to guide the Jacksonville Jaguars to a division title.
7. Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is coming off something of a down season, but sometimes a change of scenery is exactly what an aging quarterback needs. Tom Brady looked like he was at the end of the road in 2019 before leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl in 2020 and putting up an even better season in 2021. If Rodgers can do something similar, then he should be in the thick of the NFL MVP race all year long.
6. Lamar Jackson
The 2019 NFL MVP has a decent shot of winning the award for a second time. Jackson enters the 2023 season with the best supporting cast of his career and an offensive coordinator in Todd Monken that actually believes in throwing the ball downfield. The biggest question with Jackson is injuries – he needs to prove that he can actually stay healthy and effective for an entire 17-game season.
5. Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts was the runner-up for NFL MVP honors in 2022, so it feels a little weird to put all the way down at five. However, the Philadelphia Eagles have a much harder schedule in 2023, and there is a chance that Hurts regresses a bit. Last year was easily the best of Hurts’ career, and while he probably won’t go back to being a fringe starter, there is a chance that he struggles to play like a top-five quarterback again.
4. Joe Burrow
The next three players could be listed in just about any order, but we’re going to kick this tier off with Joe Burrow. Burrow has somehow found a way to outplay his first-overall selection, establishing himself as one of the NFL’s best passers while turning the Cincinnati Bengals into a perennial contender. This is splitting hairs, but the fact that he already suffered a serious injury and might not be himself for the start of the season could hurt his NFL MVP chances. A bad start will hurt his overall numbers, and you need a full 17 games of greatness if you want to be the best in the league.
3. Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert is finally healthy, has three good wide receivers, and finally has an offensive coordinator that actually deserves a job. Herbert throws arguably the best deep ball in the league, yet former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi tried to turn him into a checkdown machine. That’s not going to happen with Kellen Moore calling the shots, and an effective Herbert can singlehandedly win any matchup in the league. If he can usurp the Kansas City Chiefs and lead the Chargers to an AFC West crown, then the NFL MVP award is basically his.
2. Josh Allen
Prior to his elbow injury, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the NFL MVP frontrunner in 2022. While said ailment turned him from unbelievably amazing to just great, the fact remains that Allen is as good as anyone in the league when he’s at his best. If he can stay healthy and play at that ridiculous level, then he’ll have a great shot at the award.
1. Patrick Mahomes
Who else? Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, and it’s not particularly close. So what if he has no proven weapons in the passing game outside of Travis Kelce. Until proven otherwise, Patrick Mahomes is the best bet to win the NFL MVP award.
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