Justin Herbert is one of the more talented quarterbacks in the NFL. But he had an odd and slightly surprising year in 2022, his third season. He set career highs in attempts and completions but had career lows in passing touchdowns and rushing production. It was a very odd year for Herbert, filled with injuries and many instances of bad coaching. The 2023 season will be a big year for the fourth-year star who is known to be a dual-threat leader. Herbert took the Chargers to the playoffs last year but the team couldn’t stop the surging Jaguars. With the Chargers looking to make big strides and a big push in the AFC playoffs, Herbert will have to be at his best in 2023.
Justin Herbert 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
A Recap of Herbert’s Disappointing 2022 Season
2022 saw the Chargers best year since 2018 and the best finish by a Herbert-led squad. Unfortunately, in the year that LA finally made it back to the playoffs, their franchise quarterback had a bit of a drop-off compared to recent years. Herbert finished with 4,739 yards (second in NFL) and 25 touchdowns (ninth in NFL). His passing yard mark was a career-high for him, but that 25-touchdown mark was the lowest of his career. He started all 17 games and did struggle with injuries in-game, but the team still struggled to score through the air compared to past years. In his first two years, Herbert threw for 31 and 38 touchdowns, respectively, and those numbers are quite higher than his lowly 2022 mark.
Prediction: Herbert Has A Big Year In 2023
I think Herbert is due for a big year in 2023, and with Austin Ekeler and a good receiving core, he has all the resources needed to do that. Herbert should finish around the same yardage tally (between about 4400-4800 yards) but the biggest thing is his touchdown tally. Expect him to once again reach 30 and finish in the 32-42 total touchdown range. One thing that will certainly help his overall fantasy production is if he runs the ball more. He only ran for 147 yards in 2022 and didn’t score at all on the ground; in seasons one and two, he ran for over 500 yards and eight touchdowns. If he grows back into his healthy, dual-threat self, Herbert is due for a big year.
Fantasy Information (Rankings, ADP, etc…) For Herbert
He set career highs in attempts and completions last year but that doesn’t help fantasy owners at all. Expected to finish in the top-five fantasy quarterbacks in 2022, Herbert finished as #11, with a lack of passing touchdowns and rushing production being the biggest hit to him. He finished with a 17-point-per-game average which was well below some of the game’s other great quarterbacks. Based on the prediction, Herbert could very well finish in the 22-25 fantasy point-per-game range and be among the top scorers in some weeks.
As of now, he looks to be the seventh-best quarterback in most fantasy rankings and is suited to go anywhere from about 40 to 60th overall. Depending on how quarterbacks are drafted in your fantasy league, things could change. Regardless, he should be a middle-of-the-round draft pick in whatever round that quarterbacks start flying off the draft board.
