Joe Burrow is an elite quarterback. Let’s get that out of the way. He is a consensus top-two quarterback in the league but why has he never received a single first-place MVP vote? The simple answer as to why the Joe Burrow MVP timeline is not ours (yet) is because Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers are freaks of nature and two of the greatest to play the game. And, admittedly, that’s fair. However, there’s more to it.
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Statistically, he has been in the conversation in both of his full seasons. He finished with the sixth-most yards in 2021 and fifth in 2022. When it comes to touchdowns, he was eighth and second. Burrow led his team to back-to-back AFC North titles and even beat Mahomes head-to-head in both regular-season meetings.
If you ask him if MVP is his goal, he will just say that the Super Bowl is the goal. However, if Burrow can play at an MVP level, the Super Bowl is bound to follow.
What a Joe Burrow MVP Season Will Have to Take
Not All Sacks Are Created Equal
The number one issue Burrow has had to face in his 2.5 seasons at the helm is atrocious offensive line play. This isn’t a new thing and it’s even bordering on beating a dead horse into the ground. However, for as bad as his offensive line has been — and, let’s be real, it was pathetic — not every one of the 142 sacks he’s taken in 42 career games was on the line.
Burrow’s playstyle is one that features off-script plays and holding onto the ball to make a play. The Bengals have done phenomenally when it comes to getting open after the initial read isn’t there or the play itself breaks down.
The craziest thing is that this is all just splitting hairs.
Last year, Burrow got off to a God-awful start. In Weeks 1-8, he was sacked on 30.5% of his pressures. 29 of his 41 sacks were in those eight games and 13 (yes, 13!) were in the first two weeks of the year. After that? 17.2% over the next 10 games through the dismantling of Buffalo in the AFC Divisional Round. That includes the run of games where three starters were injured and they had Walmart greeters and tax accountants lining up on the line.
Burrow infamously did not play in the preseason due to having to heal from a ruptured appendix, so there was rust. He likely won’t play in this year’s preseason along with the other big-name stars. However, not having to heal from a major surgery will do wonders. He was not 100% at the start of the season and when you face the likes of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cam Heyward, and Micah Parsons, they’ll make you pay.
Cincinnati made improvements to the offensive line this offseason but the key will be to get off on a better foot. Primacy bias is just as powerful as recency bias.
Punish Jumpers
The other hindrance to a Joe Burrow MVP season is also centered around the offensive line play in front of him. And, realistically, it’s because of his ability to get the ball out quickly. Unfortunately, NFL defenders tend to be smart and they’ve keyed in on it.
Of Burrow’s 14 interceptions thrown in 2022 (including playoffs), five were directly due to the defensive line either batting the ball. Or, in Watt’s case, he just straight-up jumped up and made an unreal play himself. In total, Burrow had 25 passes batted at the line, leading the NFL.
There are a couple of ways to combat this, which the Bengals have been trying to do. First off, the offensive line needs to punish jumpers. What does that even mean? Well, defenders jumping up to break up the pass results in that defender leaving themselves wide-open to brutal finishes. Popular offensive line guru Brandon Thorn preaches this because it makes defenders think twice about leaving their feet.
#PunishJumpers (Taylor Moton) pic.twitter.com/T6JF4NkYl5
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) October 18, 2022
Secondly, and this could be a Burrow thing, the Bengals should incorporate more play action from under center. For a while there, the Bengals offense had a tell. If Burrow was under center, it was a run. If Joe Mixon was in the backfield and standing straight up, it’s a pass.
Obviously, tendencies always exist and can be massaged out of the offense. However, the point remains that Burrow and the Bengals offense do not like running play action out of under center. James Rapien of Locked on Bengals posits that it is very possible that Burrow does not like turning his back on the defense. Given how quickly the defense has been able to beat his offensive line, it makes sense. However, when it came down to it, the Bengals, when under center, only ran the ball.
Now, that’s not to say that they need to completely change their offense. The Bengals do incredibly well in shotgun, including running the ball. Last offseason, it was noted how many play-action reps Burrow was taking under center. This Training Camp, Burrow likely will be doing more of the same.
Burrow loves getting the ball out quickly because he can diagnose what defenses are doing pre-snap. It also helps when you have a home-run threat in Ja’Marr Chase, of course. But defenses key in on it and a play that could go the distance gets shot down at the line.
It’s well-established that you don’t need an effective run game to run play action. To say the Bengals run game is less-than-stellar would be an understatement. They will have a great game or two, but the running backs are not the focal point. Even then, just giving a fake to Mixon or whoever could slow the defensive line. If there is anything that could give Watt or Myles Garrett a slight pause and not have them tee off on Burrow, it should be utilized.
Year Four Burrow
It’s no secret that a Joe Burrow MVP season could be in our future. He’s established as one of the top players in the NFL and even has a winning record against the other two top AFC quarterbacks.
To date, only Ken Anderson and Boomer Esiason have won MVPs while playing for the Bengals. Burrow has already elevated the franchise to a level not attained before. He’s on pace to shatter records and already has quarterbacked the Bengals to as many playoff wins in two years as the franchise had in the 53 seasons before.
Unseating Mahomes as MVP is a Herculean task. Burrow can do it in 2023.
Main Image: Cara Owsley/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
