The fantasy football season is right around the corner, and selecting the correct early round running backs can make or break your season. Running backs are generally a high-risk, high-reward investment, and these four players are too much of a gamble to justify their current average draft position.
Note: In order to qualify for this list, the running back had to have a top-12 positional ADP per FantasyPros Average Draft Position.
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Early Round Running Backs to Avoid in Fantasy Football
1. Josh Jacobs (RB10)
Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs had a season to remember last year, finishing as the RB3 behind a league-leading 1,653 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on a staggering 340 carries. However, he carries a lot of risk heading into 2023 – and it’s not because of his contract woes.
Jacobs finished as one of the top running backs in fantasy football because he had an absurd workload. Overall, the running back touched the ball 393 times last season, and that’s not a good thing. The human body is not designed to handle that type of workload and, historically speaking, running backs that record more than 350 touches in a season tend to fall off in a big way in the following year. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule, but betting on outliers is a great way to go broke.
Even if Jacobs gets his new contract and stays productive in 2023, it’s highly unlikely he matches his 2022 output. The Las Vegas Raiders offense is an absolute nightmare, and their issues begin at the quarterback position. Jimmy Garoppolo is a significant downgrade from Derek Carr, and he might not even be healthy. With Josh McDaniels also on the hot seat, there is a very real chance that this offense finished among the worst in football, and that means Jacobs won’t have too many scoring opportunities. He’s a great player, but the odds are stacked against him in 2023.
Best @NFLFantasy performance of the season?
303 yards from scrimmage and an 86-yard walk-off TD in OT for @iAM_JoshJacobs 😱 pic.twitter.com/wyT1QhX7yB
— NFL (@NFL) June 24, 2023
2. Breece Hall (RB11)
Breece Hall set the world on fire last year prior to his season-ending ACL injury. If he received a full workload in 2023, he’d easily justify his current ADP. However, there is a very real reason to believe that the New York Jets don’t believe Breece Hall can be a high-volume player.
Throughout the offseason, New York has been linked to several big-name running backs. The team is currently one of two favorites to sign running back Dalvin Cook, and they were reportedly going to select Jahmyr Gibbs if he had fallen to them in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
It’s easy to see why the Jets would want to add another running back, as the current stable lacks experience. However, Cook and Gibbs aren’t the type of players you add if you’re looking for a more reliable backup to a three-down workhorse. These are starting-caliber backs that demand a high number of touches. So, if the Jets are looking for a player like that, then it tells us that they don’t believe Hall will be a three-down workhorse, at least not in 2023.
3. Derrick Henry (RB8)
Throughout the course of his career, Derrick Henry has been the definition of an outlier. However, despite what his highlight reels might suggest, he is just a human being, and he has just about everything working against him in 2023.
For one, he’s entering his age-29 season and led the league in carries in three of the past four seasons. These hits will eventually start adding up and, for what it’s worth, the advanced metrics did not make Henry look special last year.
Of course, age isn’t the only obstacle standing in Henry’s way. The Titans offense looks dreadful, as Ryan Tannehill is nothing special, and Tennessee might just have the worst wide receivers and offensive line in the game. Derrick Henry will have no support in 2023, and this makes him one of the top fantasy football running backs to avoid.
4. Austin Ekeler (RB2)
Austin Ekeler is going to have a good year and finish as one of the top running backs in football. However, should he really be the second running back off the board?
Ekeler is a three-down player, but most of his fantasy football value comes from his work in the passing game. While he is one of the better receiving backs in football, Joe Lombardi’s frustratingly conservative scheme played a huge role in Ekeler receiving 127 targets last year. Current offensive coordinator Kellen Moore actually believes in the downfield pass, and the receiving trio of Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston provides a lot of upside.
Chances are, Ekeler is going to finish with around 70 receptions, which will likely put him in the RB5-6 range. He’ll still have plenty of fantasy football value, but you’d be better off selecting rookie running back Bijan Robinson with the early first-round pick.
Main Photo: Gary A. Vasquez – USA Today Sports
