Following a breakout campaign during his final year with the Philadelphia Eagles, running back Miles Sanders landed with a team that has historically been fantasy football gold. Sanders is obviously not going to replicate Christian McCaffrey’s numbers, but can the former second-round pick maintain a three-down workload and outplay his average draft position?
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2023 Fantasy Football Outlook: Miles Sanders
2022 Recap
After spending the first three seasons of his career in a committee role, Miles Sanders finally became a workhorse back in 2022. Playing in a contract year, the running back set career highs in carries (259), rushing yards (1,269), and rushing touchdowns (11) while adding another 20 receptions for 78 yards. This performance made him the RB15 in PPR leagues, sandwiched between Najee Harris and Alvin Kamara.
After rushing for a career-high 1,269 yards in 2022, Miles Sanders is heading to Carolina! ⚫️🔵@BoobieMilesXXIV | @Panthers pic.twitter.com/tvzILEmorG
— NFL (@NFL) March 15, 2023
Miles Sanders had a solid season for fantasy football, but his lack of work in the receiving game limited his ceiling. While Jalen Hurts generally doesn’t like checking the ball down to the running back, it’s worth noting that Sanders was atrocious on the few occasions the quarterback looked his way in the passing game. The 3.0 yards per target speaks for itself, and Sanders’ 35.4 PFF receiving grade was the worst among all qualified running backs.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t seem to be an outlier. Sanders recorded 50 yards for 509 receptions and three touchdowns as a rookie, but since then, his receptions and receiving yards have dropped in every single year, and he has yet to record a receiving touchdown since 2019.
2023 Projection
By and large, this offseason has been a rough one for running backs, but Miles Sanders was the exception to the rule. The running back signed a four-year, $25.4 million contract with the Carolina Panthers and is set to star as their early-down workhorse. The only running backs of note on the roster are Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear, and neither guy is particularly gifted as a runner.
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Sanders should be the lead back, but you shouldn’t expect the same insane efficiency he produced in Philadelphia. The running back averaged 5.1 yards per carry over the past two seasons, but that was largely due to the Eagles elite offensive line and a dual-threat quarterback in Jalen Hurts that opened running lanes. Carolina’s offensive line is fine and Bryce Young has some mobility, but this is clearly a worse situation than Philadelphia.
Once again, however, Sanders’ ceiling will be determined by his work in the passing game. Even though there is no proven receiving threat on this team, it’s hard to imagine someone like Sanders suddenly turning into a target machine. There is no way around it – he is not a good receiver, and targets are earned. There is a very real chance Raheem Blackshear is a hidden gem that ends up stealing most of the third-down work.
Miles Sanders Fantasy Football ADP
As of this posting, FantasyPros ADP has Sanders going off the board with the 53rd overall pick in PPR drafts. This makes him the RB21 overall, putting him in the same neighborhood as guys like J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, and D’Andre Swift.
If you HAVE to draft a running back at this ADP, then Sanders is a fine choice. Sanders is the RB17 in my fantasy football running back rankings, so while Dobbins would be a better pick, you’d still be getting a value. However, you shouldn’t be in a position where you need to take a running back here.
Sanders is going off the board in the dead zone which, for the uninitiated, is basically an area on the board where all the good running backs are already gone, but you can still find good players at other positions. By and large, drafting a running back here is incredibly suboptimal, and you’d get a much better return on investment by drafting any other position.
Guys like Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, George Kittle, and Trevor Lawrence are all going off the board at this point in the fantasy football draft, and they’re all better than Miles Sanders. If you feel like you need a running back, just wait a bit and grab one of these running back sleepers in the final rounds.
Main Photo: Jim Dedmon – USA Today Sports
