With free agency and the NFL Draft over and done with, it’s time to start taking a close look at who has the best odds of winning the AFC West. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have dominated the division over the past half-decade, but is there anyone that could challenge for the crown in 2023?
AFC West Betting Odds – Who Will Win the Division?
Kansas City Chiefs (-160)
As long as the Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, they deserve to have the best odds to win the AFC West. However, should it really be this much better than the rest of the competition? Yes, they are the reigning Super Bowl champions, but they didn’t win a single one of their postseason matches by more than one score. The defense still isn’t anything to write home about, and the offense lacks a proven receiving option beyond Travis Kelce.
Quarterback and head coach are the two most important parts of any team, and the Chiefs have the best in the league at their respective positions. However, this isn’t a perfect roster and the right team might be able to make a push for the AFC West crown.
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Las Vegas Raiders (+1500)
That team will not be the Las Vegas Raiders. Normally, I’d talk about how the Raiders lost an absurd amount of close games in 2022, their record wasn’t reflective of their talent, and that positive regression was coming their way. However, the Raiders spent the entirety of the offseason getting considerably worse at the game’s most important position.
Jimmy Garoppolo is a sizable downgrade from Derek Carr, and the former San Francisco 49er might not even be healthy enough to play for the team. Tom Brady is not coming to the rescue, and there isn’t exactly an abundance of quarterback options for the Raiders. Combine all this with an unfixed defense and an unstable offensive line and you’ve got a recipe for yet another top-10 pick. In this case, their odds perfectly reflect their likelihood of winning the AFC West.
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Denver Broncos (+550)
Based on these AFC West betting odds, Vegas seems to believe that Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos could bounce back in 2023. Personally speaking, it’s hard to see how that happens. Wilson lacked his usual athleticism last year, and physical traits don’t tend to get better for players in their 30’s. Additionally, Sean Payton’s quick passing scheme and Wilson’s desire to pass up the easy throws and go for the home run are a match made in hell. In case you think Payton might adjust his scheme for his quarterback, remember that Joe Lombardi is the offensive coordinator. This man turned rocket-armed Justin Herbert into a checkdown machine, and he’ll try to do the same for Wilson.
The Denver Broncos defense should still be good, but it’s highly unlikely the unit plays at that high of a level in two consecutive years. This probability is increased by the fact that standout defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is now with the Carolina Panthers. Denver will have a good defense, but probably not the all-time unit that will be required to make up for this offense. Vegas never loses in the long run, but it’s hard to justify this portion of the AFC West betting odds.
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Los Angeles Chargers (+340)
If anyone is going to take down the Kansas City Chiefs in 2023, it’s going to be the Los Angeles Chargers. On paper, this team has everything you need to win a division: an elite quarterback, a strong supporting cast, and a solid enough defense. Last year, this team won 10 games despite serious injuries on offense and arguably the worst offensive coordinator in football. Kellen Moore is a significant upgrade and should bring out the best in Herbert and the offense.
While Brandon Staley might be on the hot seat, this team has what it takes to challenge the Chiefs for the division. While they shouldn’t be the favorites, their odds of winning the AFC West should be much higher than this. If you’re going to place a bet, this is the team to bet on.
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Main Photo: Jay Biggerstaff – USA Today Sports
