Pro Football Focus (PFF) just started beta testing their new game simulator, and early results indicate that the Kansas City Chiefs are going to have a tough time defending their Super Bowl title. According to the machine, Kansas City will have their worst season in the Patrick Mahomes Era, finishing with a (relatively) rough 10-7 record that probably won’t be good enough to win the division.
Obviously, it’s important to note that this tool is still in beta testing for a reason: the machine is still learning how to accurately process data, so some of the results are going to be a little strange. On top of that, even when beta testing is done, there is no machine that can predict the future with 100% accuracy. That being said, it’s still fun to take a look at what the PFF Game Simulator believes the future might hold for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs Go 10-7 In PFF Game Simulator
Biggest Takeaways and Surprises
The PFF Game Simulator believes that the Chiefs will lose seven games, but for what it’s worth, the machine believes that most of those losses could go either way. Six of Kansas City’s seven defeats are by seven or fewer points, with the lone two-score loss coming at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 7.
The Chiefs have one of the hardest schedules in the league, but it’s still surprising to see this many losses. What’s particularly surprising is that some of the projected losses aren’t to the teams you’d expect. The PFF Game Simulator believes that the Chargers will sweep the Chiefs, but it also has Kansas City falling 37-36 to Jordan Love’s Packers and 10-7 to the New England Patriots.
Maybe Jordan Love turns out to be a worthy heir to Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, but it seems a little premature to project him to take down Mahomes and company in a shootout, especially since Green Bay’s wide receivers are all inexperienced. Bill Belichick, meanwhile, is better than most at slowing down the Chiefs offense, but there is no way anybody holds Kansas City to just seven points.
What’s even more surprising is that the PFF Game Simulator doesn’t believe that the Chiefs will have any trouble taking out some of the better teams in the league. Per the machine, Kansas City will beat Miami 32-0, Philadelphia 39-21, New York 39-20, and Detroit 33-7.
Chiefs Stats From the PFF Game Simulator
The silver lining to the Chiefs record projection is that the game simulator still believes in Patrick Mahomes. Despite the relatively unimpressive record, the machine believes the two-time MVP will have a career year in 2023. Per the projections, Mahomes will complete 68.8% of his passes for 5,627 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The yardage would be an NFL record, breaking Peyton Manning’s mark from all the way back in the 2013 season.
Of course, somebody is going to have to catch all of these passes, and that person could be Kadarius Toney. The PFF Game Simulator has Toney leading the Chiefs with 75 receptions for 982 yards and 11 touchdowns. These numbers might seem like a lot for a player that has less than 600 career receiving yards to his name, but it’s definitely possible if he can stay healthy.
Watch Kadarius Toney readjust his gloves before high-pointing this catch. 👀
(h/t @ClayWendler) pic.twitter.com/mb4CPlYqHE
— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2022
Travis Kelce, meanwhile, might finally start losing that battle with age. According to the game simulator, the Hall of Fame tight end will finish the year with “only” 74 receptions for 951 yards and seven touchdowns. While these numbers would still make him one of the best tight ends in the league, it would also be his worst statistical output since 2015.
Main Photo: Danny Medley – USA Today Sports
