The 2023 NFL Draft is less than a month away. As dynasty managers and fantasy football fanatics start to look for rookies to make an impact, what is the impact provided by dynasty draft capital?
Why Dynasty Draft Capital Matters
The Method
In this study, the last six draft classes were analyzed. As a player selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, they have played six seasons in the NFL, so each season was either top 12, top 24, or not a championship piece in dynasty. This cut-off of top 24 was used because those are the true blue chip pieces in dynasty. If the cutoff was moved to top 36, the hit rate is slightly higher but the correlation by round is still consistent.
For example, running back Christian McCaffrey was selected in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. He posted four top 12 seasons, which also qualify as top 24 out of six seasons. So, he contributes a 66 percent hit rate. I examined this for every running back, quarterback, and wide receiver by round, and the results provide actionable draft insight for rookie drafts this year. Tight ends were excluded because unless it is Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, they are all over the place.
Quarterbacks
Why does everyone care so much about first-round quarterbacks? Well, first-round quarterbacks have a 50 percent hit rate to be top 24 fantasy pieces. In a Superflex league, a coin flip for a starter is definitely a gamble managers should take. First-round quarterbacks have a 31 percent hit rate for top-12 seasons in the last six drafts. When looking at the second round, that percentage goes to 13 percent for top 12, and 20 percent for top 24. What this means is that first-round quarterbacks are twice as likely to hit as second-rounders. Especially for quarterbacks, in dynasty draft capital matters.
When looking further down the draft, let’s just say it gets ugly. Zero third-round or later quarterbacks posted a top-12 season from the last six drafts. Only one posted a single top 24 season (shout out to Gardner Minshew) and that was a fun story at best. The actionable intel from this? Take a swing on first-round quarterbacks, maybe second rounders if the situation is good, but don’t expect Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder to explode in 2023.
Running Backs
The NFL has started to undervalue running backs, and it is showing in the NFL Draft. No running backs were taken in the first round in 2022. Only one was taken in 2020 and he has not worked out (sorry Kansas City Chiefs fans). The highest hit rate for top-12 seasons from any of the three positions analyzed? First-round running backs. As the draft pushes running backs down the board, only elite prospects (and Clyde Edwards-Helaire) are selected in the first round. 39 percent of round one running back seasons finished top 12, and 50 percent top 24. The misses were normally due to injury (Rashaad Penny or Travis Etienne’s first season) or a strange reach by an organization (looking at Kansas City).
Second-round running backs actually have a similar hit rate: 45 percent of seasons in the top 24, and 22 percent in the top 12. Going further down the rounds is where it gets interesting. Third-round running backs hit top 24 in 25 percent of their seasons, and top 12 in 11 percent. Even in the fourth round and later there is still a chance. For top 24, the fourth round has a seven percent chance. In the fifth round, 13 percent. The sixth round is a weird dead zone with only two percent, then the seventh is a seven percent chance. The actionable intel? In later round rookie picks, take a swing on running backs over quarterbacks or wide receivers. Also actionable but no one needs to hear it, take Bijan Robinson.
Wide Receivers
Likely due to the sheer volume of wide receivers selected every year, they had the lowest hit rate of any position. In the last six drafts, only 43 percent of the wide receiver seasons by first-rounders were top 24 in fantasy. Only 14 percent were top 12. Moving to the second round, the number plummets to 17 percent for top 24 and 6 percent for top 12. There’s a nice little bump in the third round of 24 percent and eight percent. After the top three rounds? A barren wasteland. Fourth-round receivers played a total of 98 seasons since 2017 and only Amon-Ra St. Brown performed well. In the fifth round, there was the mailman Hunter Renfrow’s fun season, Darnell Mooney blipped on the radar and… no one else. Actionable intel: fade wide receivers after the top three rounds.
Bottom Line on Dynasty Draft Capital
In dynasty draft capital matters. In rookie drafts this year, managers can establish cutoffs for positions to see who has a better chance of producing. For quarterbacks that cut off is the second round, but the first round for a higher chance. For wide receivers, the third round is the last bastion of hope. Finally, for running backs, they are the only position with a shot in the later rounds.
Dynasty Draft Capital Data
| QB | TOP 12 | TOP 24 | RB | TOP 12 | TOP 24 | WR | TOP 12 | TOP 24 |
| rd 1 | 0.31 | 0.50 | rd 1 | 0.39 | 0.50 | rd 1 | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| rd 2 | 0.13 | 0.20 | rd 2 | 0.22 | 0.45 | rd 2 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| rd 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | rd 3 | 0.11 | 0.25 | rd 3 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| rd 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | rd 4 | 0.02 | 0.07 | rd 4 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| rd 5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | rd 5 | 0.09 | 0.13 | rd 5 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| rd 6 | 0.00 | 0.06 | rd 6 | 0.00 | 0.02 | rd 6 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rd 7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | rd 7 | 0.01 | 0.07 | rd 7 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
