Vegas recently released their projected win totals for all 32 teams, including the four that comprise the AFC West. This division has the potential to be the best in football, and that high level of talent is reflected in the win totals. However, will the teams live up to that potential?
Projected Conference Standings per DraftKings Over/Under Win Totals
AFC
1. Chiefs 11.5
2. Bengals 11.5
3. Bills 10.5
4. Jaguars 10.5
5. Jets 9.5
6. Chargers 9.5
7. Dolphins 9.5
8. Browns 9.5
9. Ravens 8.5
10. Broncos 8.5
10. Steelers 8.5
12. Patriots 7.5
13. Titans 7.5
14.…— NFL Nerd (@NerdingonNFL) March 26, 2023
Predicting Over/Under Bets on AFC West Projected Win Totals
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins
It is insane to bet the over on an 11.5 line, yet that’s exactly what we’re going to do here. The Chiefs have won at least 12 games every single year since Patrick Mahomes took over, and there is no reason to expect that to change any time soon. He’s the best quarterback in football, and he’s playing for the best head coach in the league. Last year was a rebuilding year and they won the Super Bowl, there truly is no limit to how good this duo can be.
Bet: Over
Denver Broncos: 8.5 Wins
On the one hand, the Denver Broncos were a lot better than their record implied last year, as their 4-9 record in one-score games was insanely unlucky. On the other hand, this team has not done much to improve over the past few months.
Sean Payton is a good head coach, but his quick-passing scheme and Russell Wilson’s refusal to work the short middle of the field is a match made in hell. Losing defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is going to hurt, and the fact that Joe Lombardi’s continued employment is the textbook definition of nepotism. On top of all that, this team does not have the draft capital to make any notable improvements on the roster. Add in the fact that Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are likely to be traded, and it’s hard to see a way for this team to win football games.
Bet: Under
Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5 Wins
The Raiders have the lowest projected win total in the AFC West, which means they’ll have the easiest time hitting the over. Just like the Broncos, the Raiders were wildly unlucky in one-score games, going 4-9 thanks largely to unlucky bounces. However, unlike the Broncos, the Raiders are in a better position to regress to the mean in 2023. Going from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo is a lateral move, and the team will likely add a young quarterback at some point in the NFL Draft. Davante Adams is still in town, and Jakobi Meyers should provide a reliable presence in the intermediate portion of the field. This team won’t compete for a Super Bowl, but they could make a push for a Wild Card spot.
Bet: Over
Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins
This AFC West projected win total is free money. The Los Angeles Chargers won 10 games last year, and that was with just about everything possible going wrong. Justin Herbert spent a good portion of the year playing through injury, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed sizable portions of the season, and former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi tried to turn Herbert, one of the game’s best deep passers, into late-career Alex Smith.
Everyone is healthy, and Kellen Moore proved he can be a great offensive coordinator during his time with the Dallas Cowboys. While they’ll be hard-pressed to match the Kansas City Chiefs, they have all the pieces of a true Super Bowl contender and should easily finish the year with double-digit wins.
Bet: Over
Main Photo: Jay Biggerstaff – USA Today Sports
