The first few days of the NFL Free Agency window have come and gone. There are overreactions across the dynasty market, and some players will devalue their assets based on recent signings. As this opens buy windows, it is worth reaching out to fellow managers to see how they value their players. Some of the mid-season buy lows included Devonta Smith and Baker Mayfield, so you win some you learn some.
This is all keeping in mind the standing principles of dynasty:
- If your team is not competing, sell any running back over the age of 27 and wide receiver over the age of 29
- All tight ends stink except Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Never pay up for them (Pitts might make me change my mind)
- Quarterbacks will play forever and are hard to come by. Don’t sweat age plus or minus five years.
- Ignore rules 1-3 if you’re seriously competing for a championship. Buy those old players, upgrade everywhere and send it.
Dynasty Buy Low Targets After Free Agency
Kyle Pitts
It’s official. Kyle Pitts has changed my mind. While the Atlanta Falcons offense is still run like it is 1953 and the forward pass is a new concept, his talent has to win out at some point. Right? The team just traded for Jonnu Smith and the manager is probably already frustrated from a disappointing 2022. Rookie fever is getting hot and heavy, and people forget that Pitts has done nothing but produced on a per-pass basis. It doesn’t help when most of his passes looked like this.
A Kyle Pitts is a terrible thing to waste pic.twitter.com/7CzoDVZEQh
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) November 11, 2022
The Falcons only attempted 415 passes in 2022. Tom Brady alone had 733. If the Falcons even adjust to league average, it would add an additional ten passes per game. According to Player Profiler Pitts commanded 28 percent of the target share in 2022. He averaged 12.7 yards per reception in 2022. Doing math in an article is scary, but here goes:
28 percent of 10 is about three. Let’s say he only catches two of those. He would add 4.5 fantasy points per game if Atlanta is just average. That would put him at 12 points per game if he adds zero touchdown production, good enough for TE3. Pitts is a screaming dynasty buy low and if the owner is frustrated, any pick 1.05 and after is a smash accept. If your team is set up at quarterback, teams could even dangle the 1.02 and see if they can get a future stud.
Ben Skowronek
Conversely to how flashy a Kyle Pitts trade would be, this one is a little ugly. The Los Angeles Rams have a dark cloud over their organization, and that passing attack looked rough outside of one Baker Mayfield magical moment. Admittedly Skowronek did not set the world on fire. But he did produce WR4 numbers in five games out of 14 played and only put up zero points once.
Particularly interesting are the snap percentages of Skowronek. An otherwise sub-par season included snap percentages above 80 percent in 65 percent of games and in most of those games he started over Tutu Atwell and Allen Robinson. Once Cooper Kupp returns, he will command the lion’s share of the work, but Skowronek is a sneaky addition in deeper leagues.
He is presently so far down draft boards it is hard to find data on ADP. Check your waiver wire, he could be available or try to get him as a throw-in, in a larger deal. This is an easy dynasty buy low.
Najee Harris
Undeniably talented, but lacking breakaway speed and an offensive line to run behind, Najee Harris has had a tumultuous start to his career. Already a slightly older running back by dynasty standards, the 25-year-old Harris still has a good two to three years left on his legs. The Pittsburgh Steelers offense is by all accounts ascending in 2023, and a rising tide raises all ships.
What do you do with Najee Harris if you have him on your dynasty roster?
Do you trade Harris or keep him? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/2OLvFsj32i
— Moody (@EricNMoody) February 27, 2023
Harris finished out 2022 strong with finishes in the top 30 every week after week five, including a finish as the RB3 and the RB9. He is unquestionably the Steelers lead back and this is another opportunity to jump on rookie fever. There is a clear tier break at 1.08, and in my most recent mock draft, Zach Charbonnet went here. Charbonnet’s ceiling is Najee Harris, so to get the guaranteed production for the pick feels like stealing. Any pick 1.08 or later is an easy sell to get Najee.
Main Photo: Jim Dedmon – USA TODAY Sports
