When it comes to NFL roster construction nothing is a surprise anymore, Tampa Bay is in a cap space hole so deep they’ve practically struck oil. However doesn’t mean they couldn’t make roster moves to free up enough space to make a big splash in the quarterback market. One thing for sure is after their veteran quarterback retired (again) they need to find a Brady replacement.
The Fairytale Brady Replacement
With Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr and maybe even Lamar Jackson all available at significant cost anything could happen. Investing so much in a single player would hamper their ability to re-sign some of their free agents though. They have 25 players out of contract in March so a big name Bradu replacement seems an unlikely solution.
The Buccaneers have 9 draft picks in 2023, but their first selection doesn’t come until the 19th pick. Draft experts project the best four rookie quarterbacks will be taken in the first nine picks. They’ll probably take one in a later round though because that’s the cheapest way to sign a quarterback and their stocks have run dry. That will leave them in the unenviable position of having two quarterbacks under 25 who have only experienced a single NFL game between them.
The Cupboard is Bare
Tampa Bay only has one quarterback on their roster when free agency begins so they definitely have to sign at least one more. The only one left from 2022 is Kyle Trask and he has never started an NFL game. They also had Ryan Griffin on the practice squad in 2022 but Griffin is 33 and hasn’t played a regular season game since 2019. After Brady’s unexpected retirement it wouldn’t be a surprise if they re-sign Blaine Gabbert in March if only for his veteran presence. He’s been around the league; the Buccaneers are his fifth team.
Replacement Level
33-year-old Blaine Gabbert last won a game in the NFL back in 2018- and 24-year-old Kyle Trask has only attempted nine passes as a professional.
Gabbert was the 10th overall pick by the Jaguars in the 2011 draft, but he hasn’t played more than 8 games since 2012. He’s made a career out of being a reliable backup so he’s an unlikely Brady replacement. It would be odd to try resurrecting his career as a starter after nine years. Although Canales managed to revive Geno Smith’s career after a six-year stint as a second stringer. Gabbert is another Missouri graduate. Gabbert only started for two seasons though throwing 40 touchdowns and 18 interceptions during his truncated career. He also rushed for 8 touchdowns, but at 6 feet 5 inches tall and 16 and a half stone he’s not exactly Kyler Murray.
The New Guy
Trask also only started for two seasons during his college career. In his senior year he threw 43 touchdowns! He threw 437 passes for 4283 yards and just eight interceptions. Trask also ran for three touchdowns in his final year, but he only averaged 0.4 yards per attempt.
The Buccaneers signed Trask to a four-year contract in 2021 so if they think he’s their future starter they should probably re-sign him to a longer deal. From outside the organisation it’s impossible to tell if they feel he’s the long-term Brady replacement. He’s only played in one regular season game in his young career so far and in that game, he only threw 9 passes. He ended that game with 23 passing yards and a 1.6 QBR.
A Familiar Faced Replacement
New Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales served as the Seahawks quarterback coach in 2022, so the obvious suggestion here is Geno Smith. But Geno Smith is going to be expensive, and the Bucs are flat broke, they’re currently $58.2 million over the 2023 salary cap. That’s more than any other team in the league. So, it seems highly unlikely they’ll be able to afford last season’s most accurate passer, but Geno Smith isn’t the only Seahawks quarterback hitting free agency.
A Cheaper Option
Drew Lock is also out of contract and since he didn’t actually throw a pass last season, he’ll be available at a much lower price than Smith. There was a reason he didn’t throw a pass last season though; Lock has never really established himself as a starting quarterback in the NFL. He was one of a long line of quarterbacks drafted by John Elway to try and fill the Peyton Manning sized gap in the Broncos team after they won Super Bowl 50.
Lock played his college football at Missouri, during his three and a bit years as a starter he threw 99 touchdowns. He also ran in 10 touchdowns despite only becoming a prolific rushing threat in his Senior year. However, in his three years in Denver he started just 21 games, threw 25 touchdowns, 20 interceptions and fumbled 13 times. He was also sacked 33 times in 24 games so it’s unfair to apportion all the blame on Lock. In his three seasons in Denver Lock worked with two different offensive coordinators and quarterback coaches. The quarterback coach for his final two seasons in Denver was former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Mike Shula.
Lock would cost less than $2 million in 2023 and he doesn’t turn 27 until November so he would definitely be a gamble, but he could be the Buccaneers quarterback for the next six or seven years if it pays off.
Untested Replacement
There are a few inexperienced guys available in free agency but it’s difficult to know if a new offensive coordinator would want to gamble his reputation on an untried leader.
P.J Walker has started seven regular season games and has a 4-3 record in those games. He has thrown 5 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions during that career though. Walker was playing on a Carolina team who allowed him to be sacked 18 times though so behind a better Buccaneers offensive line he could shine. Walker’s last contract was worth less than $1 million too so signing him wouldn’t cause too much financial pain.
25-year-old Tyler Huntley does have more experience than Walker, but his last contract was worth the same as the former Panther’s. Huntley has started eight games in his three-year career, and he ended the 2022 season with a 2-2 record throwing 2 touchdowns, running for a touchdown and throwing three interceptions in those games. Greg Roman’s offense is notoriously unique in terms of being predictable and easy to stop. Canales may believe he can provide a scheme that will accentuate Huntley’s talent.
An Older Brady Replacement
If they can make the cap space needed to sign an experienced leader, then Jacoby Brissett will hit free agency in March. He looked like the Browns best quarterback at times during the 2022 season as he threw for 2,608 yards and 12 touchdowns. He ended 2022 with a 64% completion rate. His final passer rating of 88.9 was better than Pro Bowler’s Derek Carr’s was. Brissett’s last contract was worth $4.6 million though so he wouldn’t come cheap.
Trade for a Brady Replacement
With nine picks in the draft the Buccaneers could well trade up to find a Brady replacement. There are four promising rookie quarterbacks. However if they are going to trade some picks away it would make more sense to target an experienced quarterback.
The only problem with that is any experienced player would be more expensive than a highly touted prospect. By re-signing any new recruit to an extended and reworked contract the Buccaneers could skirt the immediate cap room issue though. There are a few available too, Marcus Mariota time as the starter in Atlanta seems to have come to an end. The current average annual value of Mariota’s contract is $9.3 million but he has two years left and is just 29 so it would make sense for him to sign a longer contract. Mitchell Trubisky is even younger than Mariota at just 28 and his current contract’s AAV is lower than Mariota’s at $7.1 million.
In between those two contracts are Zach Wilson and Trey Lance. Wilson’s current AAV is $8.7 million, and Lance’s is $8.5 million. They are both on rookie deals so Tampa Bay wouldn’t be allowed to renegotiate their current contracts. Cutting Ryan Succop, Cameron Brate and Leonard Fournette who all look slightly past their best would save $8.75 million though.
Watch This Space
The Buccaneers offense is not short of weapons, but they are short of someone who can facilitate the use of said weapons. How much different their offense looks without Brady’s input and now Leftwich isn’t calling plays will be interesting to watch. Pete Carroll said that Dave Canales has a “brilliant mind” so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tampa Bay in the playoffs again next season.
Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck – USA TODAY Sports
