The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are reportedly set to release Leonard Fournette, leaving Rachaad White alone atop the running back depth chart. Rachaad White showed some promise last year, and could be a fantasy football league winner if Tampa Bay lets him be a three-down workhorse. However, what are the odds of that happening?
The #Bucs plan to release RB Leonard Fournette when the new league year begins March 15, per sources.
GM Jason Licht mentioned recently that he felt Fournette was still a three-down back in this league. “Lombardi Lenny” is still only 28 and has plenty in the tank. pic.twitter.com/KMHiGSfG9L
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) February 28, 2023
Rachaad White Fantasy Football Outlook Without Leonard Fournette
Rachaad White the Player
Before we talk about his situation, we first need to determine if Rachaad White is good enough to handle a three-down workload. The rookie spent his inaugural campaign playing second-fiddle to Fournette, although he did a larger role as the season progressed. In total, White finished the season with 481 rushing yards and one touchdown on 129 carries (3.7 YPA) to go along with 50 receptions for 290 yards and two touchdowns on 58 targets.
While his catch rate is impressive, his rushing efficiency doesn’t look too great. However, it’s worth noting that the Buccaneers had arguably the worst combination of offensive line and playcalling in the league last year – nobody could have performed well in that situation. Fortunately, we can take a look at the advanced metrics to see if White outperformed his environment.
According to Pro Football Focus, White finished the season as the 41st-best running back in the league out of 60 eligible players. This puts him roughly in the middle of the pack, which isn’t bad for a rookie. PlayerProfiler tells a similar story, as they ranked White 35th in yards created per touch and 36th in juke rate.
When Rachaad White first entered the NFL, the scouting report said that he’d be a good receiving back and an adequate runner, and that’s exactly what we saw in Year 1. Basically, he’s good enough to handle early-down work, but you’d prefer to have somebody better touching the ball. Now that we’ve established how good White is, we now need to determine the probability of the Buccaneers adding a better player.
Rachaad White just tossed Quandre Diggs like he was a child. pic.twitter.com/tDVcNjmmdO
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 13, 2022
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Add Serious Competition?
It should go without saying that the Buccaneers will add somebody to the depth chart. With Fournette out of town, the only other running backs on the roster are Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Patrick Laird. Vaughn has never looked good in his limited time on the field, and Laird is the definition of a journeyman. It would be roster malpractice to enter the season with White as the only noteworthy option on the depth chart.
The Buccaneers will sign another competent runner, but they don’t necessarily have to sign a superstar. Adding someone like D’Onta Foreman wouldn’t be too bad for White’s long-term fantasy value, but signing Saquon Barkley would essentially kill White’s season before it ever began.
Fortunately for White, it’s highly unlikely Tampa Bay brings in an expensive running back to steal touches. The reason for this is obvious – the Buccaneers do not have any money. After going all-in (successfully) for Tom Brady, the bill has finally come due. As of this posting, the Buccaneers are $57 million over the 2023 salary cap, and they’ll need to make quite a few moves to clear up cap space.
Running back is one of the least important positions in football, so it’s highly unlikely the Buccaneers spend what little resources they have on such an unimportant position. So, barring something unforeseen, Tampa Bay will probably be in the market for a backup running back, rather than a starter.
Of course, free agency isn’t the only way to build a team. The 2023 NFL Draft is right around the corner, and the Buccaneers currently have nine picks, including three in the first three rounds. Considering all the needs on the roster, it’s highly unlikely Tampa Bay drafts a running back in the first round, so Rachaad White probably doesn’t need to worry about Bijan Robinson.
However, there is a very real chance the team selects somebody like Michigan’s Blake Corum or UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet. While White would likely retain the passing-down work, both Corum and Charbonnet are better suited for early-down touches.
All of this is one long way of saying that the Rachaad White will probably not be a three-down back in 2023, but he won’t be completely useless for fantasy football either. He’s going to get targets and will see a fair amount of carries, and that sort of role can lead to fantasy relevance in the right situation. The question now becomes if Tampa Bay provides that ideal opportunity.
The 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 2022 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of the biggest disappointments in football last year. After two great campaigns, the team stumbled to an 8-9 record that should have been a lot worse if it weren’t for Tom Brady pulling miracles out of nowhere every other week. While the team did move on from Byron Leftwich, Todd Bowles is still in town, along with the lackluster offensive line. This is a terrible situation, and it gets even worse when you realize the Buccaneers do not have the resources required to fix this mess in a single offseason. Oh yeah, and Kyle Trask (or a similarly underwhelming veteran) is replacing Tom Brady.
Volume is king in fantasy football, and we already established that White probably won’t receive a three-down workload. So, when you can’t get volume, you have to hope for efficiency and touchdowns. It’s going to be hard for White to be efficient behind such an atrocious offensive line, and it’s equally difficult to imagine a scenario where the 2023 Buccaneers score more than one or two touchdowns a game.
This doesn’t bode well for White, but his lone saving grace is his pass-catching ability. Receiving backs are basically cheat codes in fantasy football, and Rachaad White should see plenty of targets. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are still great, but there really isn’t a reliable third option on the depth chart. White could easily finish third on the team in targets, which sets a safe floor in PPR leagues. You should be able to stream him next year as a solid flex play, but he probably won’t turn into anything more than that.
Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck – USA Today Sports
