As the real NFL gears up for the Super Bowl and off-season grind, the dynasty community is already in rookie draft mode. Landing spots matter, and draft sites are starting to put out their mock drafts. Daniel Jeremiah just released his first mock draft of the season, but it is only one round. For the sake of this exercise, I utilized drafttek’s seven round mock draft to determine draft capital, landing spot and team fits.
2023 Dynasty Superflex Mock Draft 1.0
First Round
1.01 Bijan Robinson RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nothing has changed since the “Way Too Early” rankings. A generational talent with the size, speed, and strength to be utilized all over the field, Robinson will quickly establish himself as the RB1 in dynasty. The Buccaneers selected Robinson 17 overall in this mock. Admittedly, first round draft capital is rare for running backs and catapults him in front of the quarterbacks, even in superflex. If Brady stays in Tampa Bay, Robinson is a check down magnet. If Brady leaves, Robinson will get 20-25 carries a game. This is a no-lose situation for Robinson.
https://twitter.com/joebroback/status/1615016029138128896?s=20&t=0AeliJScTIaDeel7YmaPUw
1.02 C.J. Stroud QB Indianapolis Colts
When a team picks in the top five, their roster is normally in shambles. This is not the case for the Colts, who have bounced from mediocre quarterback to mediocre quarterback for years. A string of injuries to their offensive line and a completely immobile Matt Ryan made their record worse than their roster. As a result, Stroud slots into a team with wide receiver weapons and a top-five running back. Compared to Ryan, Stroud looks like Josh Allen in the pocket. As long as the Colts ease the rookie in nicely, Stroud could be the top quarterback in this class.
1.03 Bryce Young QB Houston Texans
In contrast to Stroud’s landing spot, the Texans have somewhere between six and ten starting caliber players on both sides of the ball. Brandin Cooks wants out. Nico Collins underperformed. The good news for Young is that it cannot get worse. The landing spot is rough, but after being selected at two the Texans are stuck with Young, for better or for worse, for at least three years.
1.04 Will Levis QB Las Vegas Raiders
This pick is a result of two things. First, any quarterback taken in the top ten will get a chance to start (sorry Trey Lance). Second, Las Vegas is a perfect landing spot for a young signal caller. If Jarrett Stidham can pass for 365 yards and three touchdowns in a game, Levis is set up for success. Due to the draft capital and landing spot, Levis is worthy of the 1.04, even if it feels gross.
1.05 Quentin Johnston WR Tennessee Titans
Johnston goes off the board at number 11 to the Titans. This makes him the second receiver taken in the draft, but the top option for fantasy. The Titans wide receiver room is empty other than an old Robert Woods and the talented but inconsistent Treylon Burks. Regardless of who the quarterback is in 2023 for the Titans, Johnston’s size, speed and ability after the catch make him a nightmare for smaller corners.
1.06 Anthony Richardson QB Carolina Panthers
Sometimes the heart just wants what the heart wants. Richardson went 39 overall to the Panthers in this mock, and no one on that roster is standing in his way. Normally, a second-round quarterback should not be on the fantasy radar this early. Richardson is not a normal case. His scouting report is polarizing, but Richardson is the type of prospect that hits and then is worth three first round picks a year later.
1.07 Jahmyr Gibbs RB Dallas Cowboys
The third round is the new second round, and Gibbs slid to the Cowboys in round three. Ezekiel Elliott is not the same player he was even two years ago, and Pollard is set to hit free agency. To get a running back of this caliber at the 1.07 is indicative of the format and the contrast between 2022 and 2023. Running back is deep, so teams may be comfortable letting them slide back rather than jumping up early.
1.08 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Green Bay Packers
Is it Aaron Rodgers? Is it Jordan Love? Either way, Smith-Njigba is a top two option on the offense from the first time he steps on the field at training camp. Volume is king, and Smith-Njigba profiles as a possession receiver who does all of the little things right. Generally, the NFL falls in love with speed. Compared to other receivers, Smith-Njigba will be considered slow but separation is separation, just ask Keenan Allen.
1.09 Devon Achane RB Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce owners, beware. While they profile as two different types of backs, Achane has the homerun ability to steal carries early and often. The third-round draft capital in this mock is indicative of a very real concern that Pierce is replaced by the higher drafted, faster, better pass catching Achane.
1.10 Jordan Addison WR Carolina Panthers
The downside to the landing spot is the quarterback question. Luckily for the Panthers and Addison, Richardson solves that in this mock draft. Ninth overall selection Addison slides in next to D.J. Moore and the offense goes from a bottom ten unit to must watch TV in a single draft.
1.11 Michael Mayer TE Detroit Lions
Oh, how the turntables. Detroit did not want to pay Hockenson. Instead, they take the best tight end prospect in this draft in the first round. Mayer profiles as an all-around tight end who can use his blocking prowess to earn early playing time. Undoubtedly, Detroit will want to make this pick look good and force feed Mayer targets. In a position in fantasy with a lack of top end talent, Mayer could be a top five tight end by year’s end.
1.12 Josh Downs WR New York Giants
Talk about a landing spot. Unless fantasy managers are scared off by practice squad superstar Isaiah Hodgins and Kenny Golladay’s impressive $72 million per touchdown catch season, Downs is a slam dunk here. Daniel Jones took the step forward that Brian Daboll hoped, and now the NFL gets to see a real wide receiver in New York. Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Downs could be a fun pair for Jones to work with.
Second Round
2.01 Israel Abanikanda RB Philadelphia Eagles
If Miles Sanders is gone, this is a no brainer. Abanikanda’s field vision is scary in the open field and is reliable in the passing game. He consistently finds the opening and takes what is blocked, which in Philadelphia will be plenty. Worth noting that he can also run block fairly well for designed quarterback runs. Snaps lead to carries and carries lead to fantasy points. Strangely in this mock he was the fourth running back taken, and if that is how the NFL values them then that will change a lot of manager’s opinions.
2.02 Sean Tucker RB New York Giants
The fourth-round draft capital does not inspire confidence. Unfortunately, this is the way the NFL is going, and if Saquon Barkley is gone Tucker is a more than adequate replacement. While he was track athlete in college, Tucker is not just a track guy playing football. He is a football player with track speed.
2.03 Chase Brown RB Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are ready to hurt dynasty managers everywhere. Again. Brown showed good vision and contact balance at Illinois and gets drafted in the third round to an amazing offense. If Josh Allen would stop stealing red zone touchdowns, Brown could be a very useful goal line back and an RB2 for fantasy.
2.04 Tank Bigsby RB Kansas City Chiefs
Every running back in the rest of this mock was taken in the fourth or later. Not every running back goes to a wide-open back field with a top three offense. Bigsby profiles as a three down back, soft hands for his size and valuable as a pro. Great value in the second round.
2.05 Jalin Hyatt WR Houston Texans
Top fifty pick, fast as lightning, no target competition. Obviously, Hyatt and Young just need to pray that their offensive line gives them enough time for the deep shots that will pay off for fantasy.
Yep. Sign me up for Jalin Hyatt to The Land #Browns #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/SsUBre2vHQ
— Cønnør (@BernienChompz) January 26, 2023
2.06 Hendon Hooker QB Washington Commanders
Every dynasty manager dreams of finding a starting quarterback in the second round. Hooker could be that guy, with Sam Howell, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke all fun stories but not the long-term answer. A steal at this point.
2.07 Zach Charbonnet RB Minnesota Vikings
There is a world where Anthony Mattison is gone, Dalvin Cook is hurt, and Zach Charbonnet wins people fantasy championships. He left Michigan to get more carries at UCLA (Blake Corum would do that to most running backs) and looked like a BIG 10 running back in the PAC 12. Heir to the throne in Minnesota?
2.08 Rashee Rice WR New England Patriots
Is Mac Jones bad? Or did he just not have an offensive coordinator? If the Patriots offense turns it around, Rice could find himself the number one option in an ascending offense. This second round pick has to outperform last year’s second round pick in New England.
2.09 Luke Musgrave TE Jacksonville Jaguars
Another first round tight end, Musgrave makes sense here if the Jaguars move on from Evan Engram. Musgrave profiles as a tall pass catcher tied to a good quarterback, worth a swing at this point in the rookie draft.
2.10 Tanner McKee QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Stanford prospect enters a situation where he could be the starting quarterback. In superflex, that is gold. McKee is not going to break any land speed records, but he could find himself a useful QB2 or QB3 on dynasty squads. Or he becomes the next Kyle Trask.
2.11 DeWayne McBride RB Cleveland Browns
A proud member of Bruce Feldman’s Freak List McBride finds himself the number two running back in Cleveland. Chubb has split his carries most of his career, and McBride is a capable pass catcher.
2.12 Zay Flowers WR Chicago Bears
Twitched up, good route runner and an offense with no other weapons. Flowers could be Justin Fields favorite target and unlock another level to his game. A possible WR3 for fantasy in year one with a path to continued relevance.
Third Round
3.01 Kayshon Boutte WR Indianapolis Colts
3.02 Dalton Kincaid TE Cincinnati Bengals
3.03 Cedric Tillman WR New Orleans Saints
3.04 Xavier Hutchinson WR Baltimore Ravens
3.05 Nathaniel Dell WR Cleveland Browns
3.06 Zach Evans RB Cincinnati Bengals
3.07 Kenny McIntosh RB Los Angeles Rams
3.08 Mohamed Ibrahim RB Carolina Panthers
3.09 Tyjae Spears RB Green Bay Packers
3.10 Darnell Washington TE Houston Texans
3.11 Marvin Mims WR New York Giants
3.12 Zakhari Franklin WR Buffalo Bills
