After declaring the Week 17’s Bills-Bengals game a no-contest due to Damar Hamlin’s near-fatal cardiac arrest, the league has released an updated plan for the AFC playoff picture. The owners will vote on said plan on Friday, but most expect this vote to pass. Looking at this from purely a Chiefs standpoint, let’s break down how this playoff proposal impacts the team.
Before we get into that, we need to start with a disclaimer: there is no fair solution here. Canceling the Bills-Bengals was 100% the correct decision, as there was no way to get that game in without pushing back the NFL playoffs. The league is in an unprecedented situation, and it’s impossible to create a scenario where there isn’t at least one person getting the short end of the stick. With that in mind, let’s talk about the Chiefs.
What the New NFL Playoff Proposal Means for the Chiefs
The Good
If this proposal passes, the Kansas City Chiefs will control their own destiny in the quest for the top seed in the AFC playoff picture. This was not the case entering Monday Night Football, as Kansas City needed the Buffalo Bills to lose one of their final two games if they wanted that elusive bye week.
However, now that the Bills game has been ruled a no-contest, the Chiefs are in the driver’s seat for the top seed. If they win their Week 18 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, the Chiefs will only need to win three games to claim their second Super Bowl of the Patrick Mahomes Era.
Needless to say, the Chiefs should be thrilled with the opportunity to get the AFC’s lone bye week. While Kansas City is notably better than any team they’d face in the Wild Card round, the NFL is wildly unpredictable, and any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday. After all, these same Chiefs already lost a game to the woefully incompetent Indianapolis Colts earlier in the season.
The Bad
Traditionally speaking, the team with the highest seed hosts the team with the lower seed. However, that wouldn’t necessarily be the case for Kansas City. This is where things get complicated: assuming the Chiefs and Bills both win in Week 18 and make it to the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs will not play in Kansas City. Instead, the game will be moved to a neutral setting where home-field advantage will not exist. The same thing will happen if the Chiefs and Bills both lose in Week 18, but the Bengals win and meet Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game.
The logic here is that the Bills and Bengals both had a path to the AFC’s top seed prior to Week 17’s matchup. The Bills simply needed to win out, while the Bengals needed to win out and hope Kansas City lost their Week 18 finale. Basically, the league believes that it’s not fair for the Chiefs to get a bye week and home-field advantage in a situation where they might not have had either, were it not for Damar Hamlin’s medical emergency.
The Established Rules
While this is an understandable position to take, this stance technically violates the NFL’s own rules. As pointed out by Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, page A78 of the “Emergencies and Unfair Acts” category states that “If a game is canceled, a team’s standing in its division or in its conference (e.g., qualification as a Wild Card in the playoffs or position in playoff seeding) shall be determined on the basis of its final record. When necessary, playoff tiebreakers shall be calculated according to per-game average for all teams.”
A literal interpretation of these rules means that the Chiefs should control their own destiny thanks to their superior winning percentage. If Kansas City wins on Saturday, their 14-3 record will be better than anything Buffalo or Cincinnati could possibly match. Ultimately, the NFL is just trying to make everything as fair as possible, but the Chiefs are technically getting the short end of the stick here.
