The Chicago Bears are in the second year of the Justin Fields experience as an organization. But this offseason saw them undergo a massive overhaul of the front office. It included the scouting department at the conclusion of the 2022 NFL Draft. This means that almost all of the people whose opinions went into drafting Fields with the 11th-overall pick last year are now elsewhere.
That could spell trouble for the 23-year-old. He has not gotten off to as promising of a start as anyone would like, including himself.
Fields described his play as “awful” following the Bears’ 20-12 loss to the Giants in Week 4.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that the front office should go about surrounding Fields with the requisite protection and weapons for him – and, thus, the organization – to succeed. But nothing says they have to go that route.
Bears Take Alabama QB Bryce Young in New Mock Draft
Bears Bail on Fields
The turning of the calendar to October and the virtual quarter-mark of the campaign means the start of mock draft season. With so little information to go off of, they are even more speculation now than they are when the draft is approaching and we have full season’s worth of data to sort through.
In short, expect the overreactions to be drastic and the suggestions to follow. But, in the Bears case, there is plenty of reason to put stock into where Michael Renner of Pro Football Focus has them drafting.
Even more startling, perhaps, is who he has them taking with the Bears bypassing top pass-catcher and Fields’ collegiate teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba for another passer.
Can the Bears interest fans in Alabama quarterback Bryce Young?
Incompletion in the box score, but an awesome play by #Alabama QB Bryce Young from Saturday.
Skillfully eludes pressure in his face and buys time. Throws a dart on the second-reaction scramble. Dropped. pic.twitter.com/tFJPsEEb7j
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 3, 2022
“At 6-foot and 194 pounds, Young won’t tick all the boxes physically,” Renner admits. “When he steps on the field, though, he ticks boxes left and right. He’s already earned a 91.3 overall grade this season without the two top-50 draft picks he lost at receiver from last season.”
Fields has the build. He’s listed at 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds. But his struggles this season have opened the door for the NFL world at large.
That is especially so with him being drafted by a different general manager.
Current Bears general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus have remained steadfast in their public commitment to Fields. But the quarterback’s struggles in his first year under rookie offensive coordinator Luke Getsy have stoked the doubts of his detractors.
Fields’ Old Habits Dying Hard
In many ways, Renner’s projection could simply be an alignment of circumstances and not necessarily a direct indictment of Fields – a point that would be harder to argue in reality. Fields’ college production is on-par with Young’s. The former did miss much of his final season at Ohio State due to the COVID shutdown.
But a habit of Fields’ that Renner pointed to pre-draft could ultimately be his undoing.
“Here’s the stat…that I believe is most indicative of Fields’ biggest weakness,” Renner tweeted. “When blitzed this season, Fields’ average time to throw has *increased* to 3.21 seconds from 3.07 when not blitzed. The highest in the NFL this season when blitzed is only 2.80 seconds.”
Fields currently has the fourth-highest time to throw in the NFL, per NextGen Stats. Add to it that he has also been the most pressured and it is clear where his culpability lies as things around him have failed.
Has Justin Fields struggled? Yes
Does he have quite comfortably the toughest situation in the NFL? Also yes pic.twitter.com/gwWTvNxmD3
— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) October 3, 2022
Unfortunately, PFF has been consistent with their rather dour assessment of Field. His grade further lends credence to the idea that, if given the chance, Poles might opt to go in a different direction next offseason.
“Fields’ ceiling (90th percentile) puts him in a range with Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and Jameis Winston,” explained PFF‘s Eric Eager, “a good NFL prospect, but the ceiling might be limited to comp to guys who excel in a Shanahan-like system where things are more scripted and circumstances are cushy.”
Can’t Blame it All on Fields
One thing the Bears coaches have done to support Poles’ assertion on Fields is back it up with their remarks and not always during postgame media availability. Video emerged from Week 2 of Getsy coaching up Fields who was down on himself.
Getsy has good reason to try convincing his quarterback to hang in there.
Not all of the struggles are on him, though. And the difference in his play when things around him go well and when they don’t is stark.
Justin Fields was under pressure on 51.4% of his dropbacks against the Giants.
On plays where he was kept clean, he went 10-of-14 for 168 yards, with a PFF grade of 90.3
— Lorin Cox (@CoxSports1) October 3, 2022
Additionally, Fields’ time to throw dropped to 2.84 seconds when he was kept clean – still far from the elite levels of Tom Brady (2.39) and Aaron Rodgers (2.48) but also worlds better than where he currently sits.
Ultimately, the 2023 NFL Draft will be a referendum on the Bears’ faith in Justin Fields.
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