Each year, heading into draft season, we start to settle upon players we love and players we hate, relative to ADP. This article will dive into the latter portion, my fantasy football fades. We never like to see players perform poorly, but we also need to identify players that look to be in disadvantageous situations. Here are three fantasy football wide receiver fades for 2022.
READ MORE: Quarterback Targets – Running Back Targets – Wide Receiver Targets – Tight End Targets – Quarterback Fades – Running Back Fades
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Fades for 2022
Before we get into these fantasy football fades, I want to preface this by saying that all of these are relative to ADP. Of course, if any of them slip a few rounds, I’ll take a chance on them but that rarely happens. These are all based on Fantasypros PPR ADP data as of this writing.
1. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It seems like every single year people get excited about the progress of a player coming off a major injury. It makes sense because we hear all the optimism out of training camp and are rooting for them to return quickly and be as good as they were. Unfortunately, neither of those things happen very often, and rarely do we see both of them. There’s no doubt that Chris Godwin is an amazing wide receiver when healthy. He was WR7 last year, WR15 in 2020, and WR2 in 2019 in fantasy points per game. Godwin has averaged more than 15 fantasy points per game in all three seasons. He’s still in the prime of his career and gets to catch passes from Tom Brady. So what’s the issue then?
It's great that Chris Godwin is back early from the torn ACL, but do you really see him hitting his ceiling under these conditions?
If his ADP moves to the 5th round, I'd rather just take JuJu Smith-Schuster.
If it jumps to the 4th, give me Allen Robinson instead.
I'm out.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 5, 2022
Heading into 2022, Godwin is coming off ACL, and MCL tears to his left knee. He won’t even be nine months removed from surgery until October 3rd. Most teams won’t allow players to return before then as the risk for a re-tear drastically increases before the nine-month mark. If that’s the case, Godwin wouldn’t even play his first game until Week 5 and that’s if there are no setbacks.
The reports have been encouraging so far but it’s very likely that the Buccaneers, who have Super Bowl aspirations, will take things extremely slow with Godwin. Even when he does come back, there is usually a dip in production until at least a full year removed from surgery, which wouldn’t be until 2023. There’s no reason to start your season off with an injured player like this who will miss games and may not be the same when he comes back when it’s almost guaranteed you’ll have to deal with more injuries as the season progresses.
Godwin is currently being drafted 55th overall as the WR21. That’s an egregious price going ahead of guys like Courtland Sutton, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or Rashod Bateman, all of whom are currently healthy and have big-time upside themselves. This makes Godwin one of the easiest fantasy football wide receiver fades for 2022.
2. Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel was an absolute stud in 2021. He finished the season as the WR3 in fantasy points per game with 21.2 points. Not only did he catch 77 passes for 1,405 yards but he also racked up 59 carries for another 365 yards. Samuel also scored 14 total touchdowns. He was a true, dual-threat superstar unlike we’ve ever really seen in the NFL. He’s built like a running back and is one of the best players in the league after he gets the ball in his hands. The interesting part is it seemed like his role massively shifted about halfway through the season. During the first half, he was a target monster. Samuel had at least eight targets in all of the first eight games. He only hit that mark once over the next 11 games, including the playoffs.
Heading into 2022, this is what makes Samuel possibly the most difficult player in fantasy football to evaluate, project, and rank. Will he have a role similar to what he had in the first half of 2021 or will it resemble more of the second half of the year? As fantasy managers, we should hope it’s more like the first half.
Samuel did score more points per game in the second half, but it was fueled more by big plays and touchdowns. We know that a reception is approximately three times more valuable than a carry. Therefore, the more targets and reception Samuel gets the better, even if it comes at the expense of the carries. This year, however, the passing volume may take a step back with Trey Lance under center.
George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk are also healthy (and out of the doghouse in Aiyuk’s case) so Samuel’s target share may take more of a hit there. He should still be very good, but there are enough red flags that make his current ADP of 16 overall as the WR6 too rich. This makes Samuel one of the best fantasy football fade wide receiver fades for 2022. Draft Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, or CeeDee Lamb instead.
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3. Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
Allen Lazard represents a very interesting case in fantasy football this year. His prospect profile is very poor. Lazard went undrafted back in 2018 out of Iowa State. He only had one catch in his entire rookie season. He has not averaged more than 9.8 fantasy points per game in any season. Last season, Lazard finished as the WR44 which was a career-best. That being said, he has shown flashes at times and has a good combination of size and speed. He has also had to play behind arguably the best wide receiver in the league, Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers fed Adams game in and game out which doesn’t leave too much to go around for others. Even still, for as much as Adams got, it begs the question, “why couldn’t Lazard do more?”
By Year 4, we typically know if a WR is going to be a fantasy football producer (since 2011):
*78% of top-36 WRs are repeat performers
*83% of top-24 WRs are repeat performersBe wary of Year 5 options w/out history – free agent $$ and/or bad depth charts don't make a WR good
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 9, 2022
Heading into 2022, we’re going to find out the answer to that question. Lazard has a golden opportunity to translate those flashes into sustained success and a career year. With Adams now on the Las Vegas Raiders, there is a massive target share up for grabs. Lazard looks to be the favorite right now as evidenced by his 106 overall ADP as the WR44 (much higher on most other sites).
It all seems great, however, we’ve seen time and time again that just because there are a bunch of vacated targets, doesn’t mean that it will be absorbed by mostly one guy. Opportunity is a part of the equation but talent matters much more, especially when compared to the running back position. Ultimately, guys like Lazard don’t usually suddenly break out as an undrafted free agent in their fifth season so if he does, it would be an outlier. Betting on outliers is a good way to lose more often than not. All of this makes Lazard one of the best fantasy football wide receiver fades for 2022. Draft guys like Kadarius Toney, Treylon Burks, or Kirk Cousins instead.
READ MORE: Quarterback Targets – Running Back Targets – Wide Receiver Targets – Tight End Targets – Quarterback Fades – Running Back Fades
