Each year, heading into draft season, we start settling upon players we love and those we hate, relative to ADP. This article will dive into the latter portion, my fantasy football fades. We never like to see players perform poorly, but we also need to identify players that look to be in disadvantageous situations. Here are three quarterbacks to fade in fantasy football for 2022.
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Fantasy Football Quarterback Fades for 2022
Before we get into these fantasy football fades, I want to preface this by saying that all of these are relative to ADP. Of course, if any of them slip a few rounds, I’ll take a chance on them but that rarely happens. These are all based on Fantasypros PPR ADP data as of this writing.
1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Another year of fantasy football, another year of fading Joe Burrow at his current ADP. I’m not sure if it’s the swag or the Super Bowl run, but Burrow has gotten that hype ever since the 2021 season ended. At this point, it has gotten out of hand. There is no denying that Burrow is a great quarterback. There is also no denying that he has arguably the best set of weapons in the NFL.
What Burrow doesn’t do, however, is run as all the top fantasy quarterbacks do. Burrow did run a bit more in his rookie year before tearing his ACL but only rushed for 118 yards last season. He is another year removed from the ACL injury so it’s possible he may run a bit more but I don’t think the Cincinnati Bengals want him to when that is not a strength of his game. He also has better weapons now than he did as a rookie and a much better offensive line as well. Last year he finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game.
22 Joe Burrow = 21 Aaron Rodgers
For #FantasyFootball purposes
-Both coming off outlier high YPA
-Both coming off outlier high TD%
-Both likely to see both regress
-Both ADP ~52-56 (QB5/6)Even with ⬆️ in volume likely offset the efficiency regression
QB10-12 finish incoming
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) August 18, 2022
Heading into 2022, there is optimism that the Bengals will become more pass-heavy as they started to do down the stretch last year. This would definitely help Burrow’s fantasy outlook, but there should also be some regression baked into his efficiency, especially if the volume goes up. Burrow’s yards-per-attempt was a ludicrous 8.9 which led the NFL. That is almost a lock to come down this season so even with an uptick in attempts, it may just offset each other. Burrow also had a 6.5% touchdown rate, another metric that is likely to come down a bit this year as well.
Combine that with the lack of rushing and it is easy to see why he would be one of the biggest fantasy football quarterback fades for 2022. He is currently the sixth quarterback off the board at 56 overall, just one pick behind Kyler Murray. There is no reason he should be that close to Murray or ahead of Jalen Hurts. Burrow should be drafted two or three rounds later and in the same range as guys like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott.
2. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Moving on to Burrow’s Super Bowl LVI opponent, enjoyed an incredible season in his first season with the Los Angeles Rams. It wasn’t his best fantasy season, although it was very good, it was definitely his best real-life season as he finally got a Superbowl ring. It’s interesting that he isn’t getting quite the same hype that Burrow is so his ADP isn’t quite as egregious as Burrow’s currently is.
Stafford finished as the QB11 in fantasy points per game in 2021. That is a solid finish but you’d think it would have been better when you realize he threw for nearly 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns. It was also probably his most efficient season ever too as he tied his career high in completion percentage and his second-best mark in yards per attempt.
Heading into 2022, the setup is very similar for Stafford. We should, however, bake in at least a little bit of regression to the efficiency metrics. It could be offset by an increase in volume but he already threw 601 passes last year alone. Stafford, like other veteran quarterbacks, barely runs anymore either with only 43 rushing yards last season. While Stafford seems likely for a bit of regression, other quarterbacks who finished behind him like Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Trey Lance all seem primed to be moving up and possibly past him.
On top of all that, Stafford has been dealing with an elbow issue currently. Add it all up for a guy that already finished QB11 last year and is being drafted as the QB12 and the 89th player off the board, it seems more likely than not that the price is a bit too steep. He’s currently my QB14 and there is no reason he should be going ahead of Lance, let alone a full round ahead. Stafford should be drafted a full two rounds later and in the same range as Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins. This makes him one of the better fantasy football quarterback fades for 2022.
3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Fading Aaron Rodgers has become somewhat of a yearly tradition. Two years ago, it did not go so well. Last year, it actually worked out pretty well. Despite being the MVP, Rodgers finished as the QB8 in fantasy points per game despite an egregious fifth-round ADP as the QB6. Sure he didn’t kill you, but he finished worse than his ADP, and the opportunity cost of using a fifth or sixth-round pick on him means you didn’t use that pick on guys like Cooper Kupp, Tee Higgins, or Ja’Marr Chase, among many others. On top of that, if you drafted Rodgers, it’s likely you missed out on Jalen Hurts as well a few rounds later. Drafting Rodgers last year may not have lost you your league, but it may have cost you multiple league winners.
If I was tiering QBs by reasonable 2022 upside (6 pt per pass TD):
30+ PPG: Allen, Mahomes, Lamar
27-30 PPG: Herbert, Hurts, Kyler, Brady, Dak, Wilson, Lance, Fields
24-27 PPG: Burrow, Stafford, Cousins, Rodgers— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) August 17, 2022
Heading into 2022 is a similar story for Rodgers. He’s always been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league and of all time for that matter. Rodgers will likely stay very efficient but the difference this year is that Davante Adams is no longer a Green Bay Packer. That’s a huge loss. The Packers tried to offset that loss by drafting Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs but Adams is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL so his loss will be sorely missed. The Packers may also become more run-heavy with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
Like Stafford, Rodgers is being drafted closer to what he did last year than what we should expect for this year. He is currently the 84th player off the board as the QB11 in between Tom Brady and Stafford. Rodgers should be drafted a round or two later, after Lance and in the same range as Carr and Cousins, both of whom could easily finish ahead of him this year. Rodgers is my QB15 and going a round or two too early, making one of the better fantasy football quarterback fades for 2022.
