Based on offseason reports, the Washington Commanders will have one of the most confusing backfields in the league. Antonio Gibson was the running back to own in fantasy football over the past few years, but rookie running back Brian Robinson appears to be in line to take the early-down work. With the regular season right around the corner, which running back will be the one to own?
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2022 Fantasy Football Profile: Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson
Comparing the Players
Let’s start by comparing these two players. Antonio Gibson had one of the more unique prospect profiles in recent memory, as the Memphis product rarely touched the ball in college, but was absolutely lethal every time he was given an opportunity. Gibson’s first two years in the league proved that his explosiveness wasn’t just small sample noise and that he could handle a larger workload.
From 2020 to 2021, the running back recorded 1,832 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns on 428 carries to go along with 78 receptions for 541 yards and three touchdowns on 90 targets. He finished his rookie season as the RB13 and improved to be the RB10 in 2021. By all measures, he was everything that fantasy football owners could have possibly asked for.
Brian Robinson has yet to play a meaningful snap in the NFL, so we can only judge him based on his collegiate film and metrics. An Alabama product, Robinson took his dear sweet time to see the field and didn’t record a 100-carry season until his redshirt senior season. Now, some of this had to do with the incredible stable of running backs at Alabama, but great players find a way to get the ball, and Robinson simply couldn’t do that.
The lack of production is severely concerning, as just about every data study out there shows that the best fantasy football running backs are the ones that produce early and often at the collegiate level. However, analytics can only tell a small portion of the story. From a film stance, Robinson is a true north-south runner that has no problem using his freakish build to plow through linebackers and safeties alike. In many ways, he’s the thunder to Gibson’s lightning and projects as a Chris Carson/LeGarrette Blount type of player. Guys like that can certainly last in the NFL, but they rarely make a big impact in fantasy.
I really do believe that Brian Robinson Jr. and the Washington Commanders will go down as a perfect pairing. pic.twitter.com/yYbkZYXOC0
— Sidelines – Bama (@SSN_Alabama) August 18, 2022
Projecting Usage
It is my personal opinion that Antonio Gibson is a considerably better running back than Brian Robinson. However, my opinion doesn’t matter if it differs from the coaching staff. Reading into offseason reps can be dangerous, but there are warning flags all over the place regarding Antonio Gibson’s perceived spot on the depth chart.
It goes without saying that JD McKissic is going to handle most of the passing work. Targets are the most valuable aspect of fantasy football, and McKissic has served as Washington’s primary pass-catching back for each of the last two years. Seeing as he just signed a two-year extension with the club, it’s safe to assume that he will retain this job.
This leaves Robinson and Gibson battling for early-down work, and all signs point towards Robinson earning the important touches. There is no doubt that both Robinson and Gibson will earn some percentage of the early-down touches, but it appears as though Robinson is the 1A to Gibson’s 1B. Camp reports indicate that Robinson has spent a considerable amount of time with the first-team offense, and the coaching staff is currently using Gibson as a kickoff returner – and that is never good for fantasy.
Brian Robinson first carry. Antonio Gibson returns the kick. This is really happening folks.
— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) August 20, 2022
Even if we assume a 50/50 split in overall work for Robinson and Gibson (and that’s being generous), it’s likely that Robinson will earn a higher share of the valuable touches. As mentioned earlier, Robinson is built like a tank, which makes him more likely to earn short-yardage and redzone touches. These opportunities tend to be more valuable in fantasy, which means that Gibson is likely going to be in an uphill battle for fantasy relevance.
Bottom Line on Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson Fantasy Football Projections
No matter how good you are at the game of football, it’s hard to make much of a fantasy impact if you’re not receiving valuable touches. Right now, Gibson projects as someone that will receive a decent amount of early-down carries between the 20’s and similar low-value touches. Robinson, meanwhile, will likely see an equal amount of low-value touches while being the primary running back in the red zone.
In many ways, this situation resembles how the New England Patriots used Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson last year. Harris put together a solid season thanks to his 15 touchdowns, but neither player was particularly reliable on a week by week basis, even though both guys looked good on tape.
Brian Robinson is essentially free in all drafts and is a worthwhile dart throw in the last round or two of your drafts. Antonio Gibson, meanwhile, looks like an easy fade at ADP. Gibson truthers are going to have to hope that talent eventually wins out, but all signs point towards his opportunities being too few and far between to provide any sort of fantasy relevance.
