J.K. Dobbins enters the 2022-23 season as the Baltimore Ravens’ primary running back. The third-year pro flashed elite talent in his rookie year and missed the entirety of the 2021-22 season with a torn ACL. As a somewhat forgotten name, J.K. Dobbins could be a steal for many fantasy football owners. His selection comes with a few risks, however.
2022 Fantasy Football Outlook: J.K. Dobbins
2021 Recap
Entering his sophomore year, Dobbins was primed for a breakout season. He was promised an expanded role in the offense and, subsequently, improved his pass-catching skills vastly. He also made progress as a runner, displaying better vision and decisiveness during the preseason.
The hype was all for nothing, however, as a torn ACL ruled Dobbins out for 12 months. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Dobbins was among a long list of season-derailing injuries for the team in 2021. Fellow running back Gus Edwards also missed 2021 with a torn ACL.
Despite missing last season, fantasy owners should be optimistic about Dobbins given his strong rookie season. In 2020, the second-round pick competed for rushing snaps with Mark Ingram (and Lamar Jackson), yet he still totaled nine rushing touchdowns alongside 805 rushing yards and 120 receiving yards over 15 games.
2022 Outlook
In 2022, Dobbins is expected to be the Ravens’ primary running back, with Edwards performing a more specialized role on the team. Thus, on paper, it appears that Dobbins has the potential to be a top running back. A large part of this projection is clouded with uncertainty. Current medical advancements suggest that Dobbins should be back as good as before. However, with leg injuries, there is always a chance that the former Ohio State product will have lost a step.
The Good
During his rookie season, the 23-year-old impressively found the endzone nine times. This was one of the strongest aspects of his rookie campaign, as he demonstrated a good ability to score from all areas of the field. With more snaps going his way in 2022, expect more touchdowns.
Some of the Ravens’ off-season moves have also pointed to an improved running game in 2022. The most notable of these was the team’s selection of Tyler Linderbaum in the first round of the NFL Draft. Linderbaum was one of the cohort’s most NFL-ready players and will start straight away. While Linderbaum’s pass protection is his greatest strength, the former Hawkeye is a very polished prospect who will undoubtedly aid all parts of the Ravens offense.
The NFL Draft also saw the Ravens trade Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown to the Arizona Cardinals. With a weaker wide receiver group, the Ravens will further rely on their ‘ground-and-pound’ tactic.
The Ravens’ strength of schedule is also among the easiest in the league. On the assumption that the Ravens will be in control of games against weaker opponents, Dobbins could be the man to run the clock down in the fourth quarter.
Reasons to Worry
Dobbins is not expected at training camp, with coaches hoping that he will return by the start of the season. With minimal team training prior to the regular season, it is hard to predict what Dobbins’ role is. If he takes some snaps in preseason, more light could be shed on this.
The following are uncertainties that will drastically affect Dobbins’ production: the extent of Jackson’s involvement in the rush game, the size of Edwards’ role in the offense, and whether Dobbins will be involved in the receiving game.
While Jackson’s generational rushing ability can open a lot for running backs, the volume at which he runs means that a lot of rushing snaps are also taken away from running backs.
Edwards is one of the most effective short-yardage backs in the league. Given how much the team trusts Edwards, it is expected for him to take a large share of rushing snaps, especially near the goal line. This would limit Dobbins’ touches, especially in touchdown-scoring situations.
Despite Dobbins improving his game as a pass catcher, it seems unlikely that he will find a meaningful number of touches through the air. The main reason for this is the team’s selection of Tyler Badie and the signing of Mike Davis. Both backs are renowned for their receiving ability and would be better receivers than Dobbins. It will also be interesting to see whether this means that Dobbins will split third-down duties with Badie and Davis.
Jackson’s unwillingness to throw to running backs is another concern. The strength of the Ravens’ tight end position means that Jackson tends to check down to tight ends. Mark Andrews is one of the league’s best and Isaiah Likely has been impressing coaches so far.
Average Draft Position
If healthy, Dobbins should be rostered in every league throughout the 18 weeks of the season. FantasyPros list Dobbins’ ADP at 51, making him RB25. However, there is a big range, with some experts listing him as a top-20 running back and others listing him outside the top 40.
Given the limitations that Dobbins will face on the Ravens, it is safe to say that his ceiling is capped as a rusher. A 1,000-yard and/or 10 touchdown season is certainly possible, but it would be unrealistic to expect anything more.
The risks that Dobbins comes with make him hard to trust, and it would be wise for fantasy managers to aim to select him at around the RB30 mark. The best way to own Dobbins would be to have him as RB2 with upside. To maximize his value, owners should view him as a handcuff to Edwards, whose ADP sits at 157.
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