Week 14 is in the books and it’s on to the next one. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at the best Week 15 DraftKings plays.
Week 15 DraftKings Plays
Week 14 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague@LastWordOnNFL
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) December 13, 2021
Looking back at Week 14, it was worse than last week but still decent. This week 56% of the recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group led the way with an 80% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear this week with a 42.9% success rate. It was not a profitable week. The cash build lost all seven double-ups and went 1-3 in H2H’s. We’ll look to do even better with the picks and get back into the profits in the Week 15 DraftKings plays.
- Week 14 – $346 → $154 ($192 LOSS)
- Year Total – $4,764 → $4,917 ($153 PROFIT)
Week 15 DraftKings Plays
Kyler Murray (ARI) – $7,900 @ DET
Kyler Murray has returned strong after a midseason injury forced him to miss three games. He has come back strong over the past two weeks scoring 22.4 and 30.8 DraftKings points in the last two games. The most encouraging part is that Murray is running regularly again. He’s rushed 17 times for 120 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games. That could be more of a trend moving forward now that DeAndre Hopkins is out for the rest of the season. Losing an elite playmaker like Hopkins is never a good thing but it may result in more scrambling from Murray. This matchup is a juicy one either way. The Detroit Lions have been one of the worst defenses in the league. The Arizona Cardinals are currently 12.5-point road favorites with an implied total of 30, the highest on the slate. This game is also in a dome and Murray should have no issue turning in a strong performance.
Most accurate QBs on 15+ yard throws:
🎯 Kyler Murray
🎯 Justin Herbert
🎯 Tom Brady
🎯 Joe Burrow pic.twitter.com/h0cgvlbptl
— PFF (@PFF) December 15, 2021
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – $5,700 v NYJ
Here is the second straight week a quarterback facing the New York Jets is featured in this column. Taysom Hill came through last week and it seems likely that Tua Tagovailoa will this week. While they are entirely different styles of quarterbacks, the Jets are still an entirely different style of bad. The Miami Dolphins also cannot run the ball very well so they tend to pass more often than most teams to move the ball. This bodes very well in great matchups like this one. Tagovailoa has attempted at least 31 passes in six straight starts now. The Jets have allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year, a number that would be even more had they also not been getting run all over by running backs. The Dolphins are currently 9.5-point home favorites with a 25.5-point implied total. All of these factors combined with his cheap salary make Tagovailoa one of the best value options at quarterback on the slate.
Others to Consider: Josh Allen (BUF) – $8,100 v CAR, Trevor Lawrence (JAX) – $5,100 v HOU, Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) – $5,800 v ATL
Najee Harris (PIT) – $7,800 v TEN
Najee Harris has been a true workhorse in his rookie season. He has the third-most rushing attempts, the third-most targets, the third-most receptions, and the most combined touches among all running backs this year. That is a ridiculous volume at a position where volume is king. A player cannot score fantasy points if they do not get touch volume. The targets and receptions are particularly nice seeing as that they are much more valuable than a carry, especially on DraftKings. This week’s matchup against the Tennessee Titans may not look great on paper but it is not a matchup to be feared. The Titans have allowed the second-least DraftKings points to running backs so far but that is because they have been getting torched through the air. Harris is a huge factor in the passing game as well so he should be more than capable of putting up double-digit DraftKings points just from his receiving production. There are not many pay-up options on this slate and Harris looks like one of the safest options.
James Robinson (JAX) – $5,400 v HOU
Boy, what a season it has been for the Jacksonville Jaguars. There seemed to be plenty of promise before the year with the hiring of Urban Meyer and the drafting of Trevor Lawrence. All that has turned into disappointment culminating with the firing of Meyer this week. Meyer had been grossly misusing James Robinson, especially lately. Robinson only has 3.9 DraftKings points over the last two weeks combined as he’s only seen 14 carries and one reception during that span. Reports came out that Meyer benched Robinson and would not allow him back into the game and it took Lawrence telling Meyer that Robinson needed to be in the game for him to allow it. Now that Meyer has been fired, things should hopefully get back to normal for Robinson and a date with the Houston Texans could be the perfect remedy. The Texans have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to running backs so far this year. The Jaguars are also currently 4.5-point home favorites. Things are looking great for a big bounceback performance for Robinson.
Happy James Robinson week 😁 pic.twitter.com/MXgphWBwhi
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 18, 2021
Michael Carter (NYJ) – $4,700 @ MIA
Michael Carter is back after missing the past three games due to injury. He should step right back into a “significant role” according to Robert Saleh. That is very encouraging to hear after he showed some promise in the previous five games before getting hurt. Carter scored at least 17.4 DraftKings points in three of those five games. He was also heavily involved in the passing game which is encouraging as it helps make him a bit more game script proof. That is definitely important when a team trails as much as the Jets do. Even in this game, they are nearly double-digit underdogs against the Dolphins. The Dolphins are middle-of-the-pack in terms of DraftKings points allowed to running backs but this one is all about the amount of volume at this cheap of a price. If Carter sees at least 12 carries and at least four targets in this one, that price tag is simply too cheap.
Others to Consider: Joe Mixon (CIN) – $7,200 @ DEN, Saquon Barkley (NYG) – 6,500 v DAL, Myles Gaskin (MIA) – $5,700 v NYJ, Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) – $5,000 v ATL
Davante Adams (GB) – $8,900 @ BAL
The only wide receiver having a better year than Davante Adams this year is Cooper Kupp and he is not on the slate. That leaves Adams as the top spend-up option this week and one of the best values as well. There is a ton of value that has opened up throughout the week due to COVID so spending up to get Adams in the lineup is not too hard. He is one of the safest plays on any slate. Adams has scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game this season so far. He has been especially hot lately too as he has scored at least 21.4 DraftKings points in three straight games including at least 33.5 DraftKings points in two of those three games. The matchup against the Baltimore Ravens is nothing to be scared of either.
Davante Adams 🤧🤧🤧🤧
— PFF (@PFF) December 13, 2021
DeVante Parker (MIA) – $4,700 v NYJ
DeVante Parker might end up being the most popular wide receiver on the slate and it certainly makes sense with Jaylen Waddle out due to COVID-19. Parker has been in and out of the lineup all season due to various injuries but he has been very good when healthy. He has seen at least five targets in all six healthy games and caught at least four passes in all six as well. In his first game back last week he caught all five of his targets for 62 yards. That was good for 11.2 DraftKings points. Parker is averaging 12.5 DraftKings points per game. As previously mentioned, he should see a target share boost with Waddle out and the Jets are horrible on defense. Parker looks like a great value this weekend.
Gabriel Davis (BUF) – $3,700 v CAR
Heading into the season, Gabriel Davis was one of the buzziest sleepers in all of fantasy football. Ultimately he has been a massive disappointment. Davis has mostly been relegated to part-time duty as he has been the fourth wide receiver and the fifth receiving option. He has been coming on strong lately with two straight games with double-digit DraftKings points. That has directly coincided with an Emmanuel Sanders injury. Sanders will miss this game as well which means Davis will get much more playing time once again for the Buffalo Bills. The matchup against the Carolina Panthers seems tough but the Bills have one of the highest implied totals at 28.5 points. Any time there is a guy with this much playing time on a pass-heavy team with a high implied total and is this cheap, that is a guy that is likely to return great value.
Others to Consider: Deebo Samuel (SF) – $8,200 v ATL, D.J. Moore (CAR) – $6,000 @ BUF, Christian Kirk (ARI) – $5,300 @ DET, Brandin Cooks (HOU) – $5,800 @ JAX, Rondale Moore (ARI) – $4,400 @ DET
George Kittle (SF) – $7,500 v ATL
Nobody has seen their salary rise as much over the past two weeks as George Kittle has. He was just $5,900 two weeks ago and is now up to $7,500. That will happen when you drop 42.6 and 37.1 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks. Kittle has been absolutely on fire and is being schemed targets in bunches. He has had 27 targets in the past two weeks alone. This week’s matchup against the Atlanta Falcons presents a great opportunity to keep the good times going for Kittle. The Falcons defense cannot stop anyone right now so Kittle should have no issue in this one. The San Francisco 49ers have one of the highest implied totals at 28 points as well which only helps his chances.
George Kittle: 92.0 PFF receiving grade this season
🥇 1st among all WRs/TEs
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 18, 2021
Evan Engram (NYG) – $3,100 v DAL
It seems like every week Evan Engram looks like a good play and somehow every week he finds a way to disappoint. It is hard to ignore the target volume at this price though. Engram is averaging five targets per game over his last four games. That may not seem like much but for a tight end, especially one this cheap, that is a very good amount. This week’s matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is a nice one. The Cowboys are only middle-of-the-pack against tight ends but they are a fast-paced, high-scoring team. That means it is a pace-up spot for the New York Giants. They are also currently 10.5-point underdogs so the game script should be in Engram’s favor as the Giants will likely be throwing early and often.
Others to Consider: Mike Gesicki (MIA) – $5,000 v NYJ, Zach Ertz (ARI) – $5,400 @ DET, James O’Shaughnessy (JAX) – $3,200 v HOU
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Tua Tagovailoa
- RB – James Robinson
- RB – Saquon Barkley
- WR – Diontae Johnson
- WR – DeVante Parker
- WR – Gabriel Davis
- TE – Mike Gesicki
- Flex – Davante Adams
- DST – Jacksonville Jaguars
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 15 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 16. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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