The NFL has been an unpredictable mess this year. Normally at this point in time, there are one or two clear MVP frontrunners. However, due to an absurd amount of parity throughout the season, there really isn’t an odds on favorite to win MVP. This means that there is money to be made, and the following players have the best odds of a high payout.
Note that this article isn’t necessarily trying to predict who will win the MVP, but rather which players give the best potential for a huge payout. This is all about identifying values in the betting market and trying to capitalize on potential inefficiencies. Also, note that all odds come from Fanduel’s November 15th update.
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NFL MVP Odds: Best Bets After Week 10
1. Ryan Tannehill (+3000)
For the life of me, I cannot understand how Ryan Tannehill only has the 10th best odds of winning the MVP. Generally speaking, MVP winners need to win their division, earn a top playoff seed, and put up great numbers while doing so. It also helps if you’re doing this with little to no help from your supporting cast.
Ryan Tannehill checks each and every last one of those boxes. The Titans currently have the best record in the AFC after going on a 5-0 tear against some of the best teams in football. The Titans have a below-average offensive line, Derrick Henry is done for the year, and A.J. Brown is the only healthy and reliable receiver on the team. Despite all this, Tannehill still ranks 11th in EPA/play, 3rd in PFF grade, and 8th in ESPN’s QBR. He should see his stock rise moving forward and is an easy betting target at +3000.
RYAN TANNEHILL. TOUCHDOWN.😎
¡¡BRUTAL DRIVE DE LOS TITANS!!🔥#Titans | #TENvsLAR
pic.twitter.com/3L1M6uCKQg— Holy Roller NFL (@HolyRollerNFL) November 8, 2021
2. Lamar Jackson (+1200)
Lamar Jackson had a bad day at the office last week, but the market appears to be overcorrecting itself. Jackson still has a great shot at winning the award, and these odds are just too good to pass up. Jackson has carried the Ravens throughout the first half of the season, but his job should get easier in the second half.
Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews form one of the deadliest receiving trios in the league, and Jackson should have plenty of success moving the ball with these targets. Bateman, in particular, could be the key to Jackson’s MVP success, as the rookie first-round pick has looked fantastic every single time he steps on the field. If the Ravens end up winning a very competitive AFC North, then Jackson has great odds of winning the MVP. Strike while the iron is hot and throw some money on Jackson.
WHOA 😱😱😱@Lj_era8 to @Primetime_jet TOUCHDOWN!
Tune in on CBS! pic.twitter.com/VqTwk04ILy— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 24, 2021
3. Kyler Murray (+1600)
After missing two games to injury, Kyler Murray might have taken himself out of the running. However, if he can come back to the field in the next week or two, there is a chance to profit on his current MVP odds. Murray was one of the frontrunners at the time of his initial injury, and nobody has done anything to separate from the pack in Murray’s absence. If Murray comes back and picks up where he left off, he has a real shot of winning the award.
.@K1 airs it out to @ajgreen_18 for a 41-yard @AZCardinals touchdown! #RedSea
📺: #AZvsLAR on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/E1mepMvDtp— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2021
Why You Shouldn’t Bet on the Favorites
As of this posting, quarterbacks Josh Allen and Tom Brady have the best odds at winning MVP (+200 and +300, respectively). Now, it would not surprise me if either player ended up taking home the hardware. Both quarterbacks are having fantastic seasons, and Brady specifically should only get better as Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski return to the lineup. However, at their current odds, the risk of failure exceeds the reward of getting it right.
Historically speaking, you need to win your division if you want to win the MVP. Allen might be in some trouble there, as the New England Patriots are just a half-game out of first place. The Bills and Patriots still have two more matchups on the schedule, and Buffalo also has to face the Buccaneers, Saints, and Colts before the season is done.
It is theoretically possible to win MVP without winning your division, but you need to play unbelievably well for that to happen. Allen has been great, but he hasn’t played well enough to be that kind of an outlier. While the Bills are still favorites to win the AFC East, the odds of them losing the division are too high to justify placing money on +200 odds.
Brady has a much stronger hold on his division, but voter fatigue could cost him MVP honors. Brady has been so good for so long that he’ll need to be unquestionably better than the second-best option. Basically, the tie is going to go to the young, new player. It’s the same reason that Aaron Donald hasn’t won every single Defensive Player of the Year award since 2015.
Brady has been fantastic this year, and there is an easy case to be made that he is the best quarterback in the NFL. However, he hasn’t been worlds better than the competition, so I wouldn’t bet on him for only +300 odds.
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