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2021 Fantasy Football Outlook: Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Fantasy; Joe Mixon has long been a divisive running back in fantasy football, but what does 2021 have in store for him? 

When it comes to running backs there are plenty of theories, but one thing is for certain: the position has changed over the years and so should the way it is viewed. Gone are the days where workhorse running backs are plentiful. In 2000, 19 running backs eclipsed the 300-touch mark. Last season, that number was just four. This scarcity makes the running backs who do get a large number of carries worth their weight in gold since volume is still king when it comes to the running back position. That being said, it is not a death knell for every other running back either. In fantasy football, Joe Mixon has long been a divisive running back, but what does 2021 have in store for him? 

Fantasy Football Player Profiles

Joe Mixon 2021 Fantasy Football Profile

A Look Back at 2020

Heading into 2020, there were basically two camps when it came to Joe Mixon: the “truthers” and the “haters.”

The “truthers” argued that 2020 would finally be the year for a true breakout and the “haters” said he has been too injury prone and he has a terrible yards per carry and thus would be a bust. Both sides argued their point of view until they were blue in the face.

Mixon had a brutal start to the season. He scored 8.1, 12.6, and 8.5 fantasy points in the first three weeks of the season despite averaging nearly 20 touches per game. Smart fantasy managers took advantage knowing that this type of production on that volume was unsustainable. Week 4 rolled around and Mixon WENT OFF against the Jacksonville Jaguars. In that matchup, he racked up 181 total yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries and six receptions, good for 42.1 fantasy points. 

Mixon went on to put up 15.4 and 14.9 fantasy points in the next two weeks before leaving Week 6 with a foot injury that would ultimately end his season. His final season line was uninspiring and left fantasy football managers with a bad taste in their mouths. Diving a bit deeper though, there was plenty to like. Extrapolating his numbers out over a full season, Mixon would have finished with 317 carries, 1,141 rushing yards, 56 receptions, 368 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns. His 16.6 fantasy points per game would have placed him as the RB10. That is a season fantasy managers would take every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Previewing 2021

Looking towards 2021, there is plenty to love about Joe Mixon’s fantasy football outlook but still a few question marks as well. Fantasy managers may be wondering what has changed for him heading into 2021 that would take his game to the next level. The answer is plenty has changed.

There’s no question the Cincinnati Bengals offensive line was atrocious last year. Rookie quarterback, Joe Burrow, was running for his life every week until he suffered a major knee injury that ended his season. Changes needed to be made and they were. The Bengals signed former first-rounder Riley Reiff to play right tackle. They also are getting former first-rounder Jonah Williams back from injury to play left tackle. Cincinnati also spent significant draft capital towards upgrading the offensive line when they drafted Jackson Carman and D’Ante Smith in the second and fourth rounds, respectively. They also hired Frank Pollack as their offensive line coach and run game coordinator. Pollack was the Bengals offensive line coach in 2018 when they ranked in the top half of the NFL and Mixon had a career year. While this unit won’t suddenly transform into an elite unit, it should be much improved in 2021 barring injury.

Perhaps the biggest, and most important, off-season change is the departure of Giovani Bernard. Bernard is known as a great third-down, pass-catching running back. Over the last four years, he averaged 3.2 targets per game when Mixon was healthy. Last year specifically, Mixon already averaged a career-high 4.6 targets per game. He could easily set a new career-high in 2021 with Bernard out of the picture. Should Mixon see even one extra target per game this year and haul in 80% of those targets (his career average), he will be looking at over 76 receptions and a true PPR monster.  

On top of all this, Cincinnati added another offensive weapon when they drafted Ja’Marr Chase in the first round this year. This may seem like a negative, but adding another playmaker on offense should only open up the field more and help the Bengals move the ball down the field more regularly, setting up more red-zone opportunities for Mixon. This likely also won’t take away target opportunities either since running back and wide receiver target shares generally aren’t strongly correlated.

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Joe Mixon Fantasy Football Average Draft Position

Murray is currently going as the 21st player overall off the board as the RB13 according to Fantasypros. That is the same range as guys like Calvin Ridley, D.K. Metcalf, and Darren Waller. Some running backs going around that point are Antonio Gibson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Mixon’s current ADP seems fair although I have him a bit higher in my personal rankings at RB8.

In fantasy drafts, nothing is more valuable than an elite running back. Every year, the list of players that have the highest win rates is littered with running backs. This is true even for the running backs in the first and second rounds. This is because the scarcity of elite players at the position creates such a positional advantage for those fantasy managers that do end up with the elite running backs. This season, Joe Mixon definitely has the chance to jump into that group. With a high touch volume and an improved situation, a career year could be on the way.

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Robert Norton

Robert Norton

He's been writing about sports on and off for years now but started back more regularly again in 2019. His main focus has been fantasy sports, with most of the articles being fantasy football based. It originally started as a fun way to add a unique aspect to his longest-running home league and has expanded from there. Sports and fantasy sports are definitely a love and passion of his as he's been watching and playing since he was very young. He played most sports growing up, although basketball was always his favorite to play and still play regularly to this day. He's currently 33 years old, work in Accounting/Analysis for Accuscripts Pharmacy, and live in Ohio with his amazing wife of 7 years and their 4-year-old and 6-month-old sons. Any questions, whether personal or sports/fantasy sports related, don't hesitate to reach out and ask!

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