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2021 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: Fields Falling, Pitts Rising

The NFL Draft is just one week away. Here is my updated version of Round One of next Thursday's 2021 NFL Draft.

NFL Mock Draft season is officially in full swing. The NFL Draft is just one week away. On April 29th, all of the rumors and predictions will transform into reality as each NFL team will declare their intentions through actions, not words. After analyzing information from beat reporters, coach interviews, and reviewing a myriad of mock drafts, here is my second projection of Round One of the 2021 NFL Draft.

NFL Mock Draft 2021

Pick:  1st
Team:  Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick:  Trevor Lawrence, QB (Clemson)
Previous Pick:  Trevor Lawrence

Every NFL mock draft has Lawrence getting selected first by Jacksonville. The 21-year old Clemson product is 6-foot-6, 220 lbs, and guided Clemson to the National Championship as a freshman. He has the size, arm strength, and running ability to find sustained success as an NFL starting quarterback.

Currently, FanDuel has Lawrence at -100000 to be the first player selected.  That means a bettor would need to wager $100,000 just to win $100. Let’s move on.

Trevor Lawrence NFL Draft Profile

Pick:  2nd
Team:  New York Jets
Pick:  Zach Wilson, QB (BYU)
Previous Pick:  Zach Wilson

Following the masses on this pick, as Wilson is the clear favorite to be the Jets new starting quarterback. The early breakout age, 33 to 3 TD to INT ratio, arm strength, and swagger have trumped the questionable competition level (2-4 vs. Top 25 teams) during his college career. Wilson is now down to -5000 at DraftKings to be the second overall pick. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is next at +1600, if you want to be contrarian. I’ll stick with Adam Schefter:

Zach Wilson NFL Draft Profile

Pick:  3rd
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Pick:  Mac Jones, QB (Alabama)
Previous Pick:  Mac Jones

Do I believe the 49ers traded three first round picks for Mac Jones?  No, I think the 49ers wanted to have their choice of Mac Jones, Justin Fields, or Trey Lance. Jones is a high-floor player, similar to how Jimmy Garoppolo was perceived when he left New England. As Mike Tanier wrote for ProFootballNetwork.com, Shanahan doesn’t really have a “type” of quarterback, but there is a ton of smoke that Jones is the pick. The only mock draft I have seen without Jones as the third selection is Lance Zierlein’s of NFL.com. Despite his tremendous talent, I don’t think Lance can do enough in a COVID-limited year to convince San Francisco to take him third overall. The odds right now have Justin Fields as the favorite, but Mike Lombardi of The Athletic remains skeptical.

Based on accuracy and decision-making, I’m staying with Jones at No. 3 overall…for now.

Mac Jones NFL Draft Profile

Pick:  4th
Team: Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Previous Pick: Justin Fields

I’m changing this pick to tight end Kyle Pitts of Florida. Atlanta would need to be convinced that either Fields or Lance is the quarterback of their future to bypass one of the best tight end prospects we’ve seen in years. Quarterback Matt Ryan‘s contract was restructured in the offseason, with a dead cap hit of $65 million this season and $40.2 million in 2022.  Would the Falcons make that move to secure Ryan as their starting quarterback in March, only to take a quarterback with the fourth overall pick in the draft in late April? That Super Bowl loss to New England will haunt owner Arthur Blank until he wins a title, and the addition of Pitts would given Atlanta an offense that rivals Kansas City. The Falcons need to get by Tampa Bay and New Orleans to win the NFC, and Fields or Lance doesn’t move them towards that goal for a few years. Still only 20 years old, I think the Falcons choose Pitts and solidify a superior offensive attack.

Kyle Pitts NFL Draft Profile

Pick:  5th
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Pick:  Penei Sewell, OT (Oregon)
Previous Pick:  Penei Sewell

One of the most laughable narratives on social media is that Cincinnati wants to reunite Joe Burrow with former college teammate Ja’Marr Chase for “chemistry.”  A $2 billion NFL franchise doesn’t base the fifth-overall pick on their quarterback’s “college buddy.” They base that pick on protecting their franchise quarterback, especially one coming off knee surgery after a torn ACL in his rookie season. If you need a reminder, take a look at Cincinnati’s recent tweet about their new uniforms.

The Bengals need to address an offensive line that PFF ranked 30th last season. At 6-foot-6, 331 lbs, Sewell won the Outland Trophy in 2019 as the best collegiate offensive lineman. Even though he opted-out of the 2020 season, Sewell is ready to play anywhere on the offensive line. Paired with left tackle Jonah Williams, the Bengals will have the promising Burrow-Tee Higgins connection protected for years to come.

Penei Sewell NFL Draft Profile

Pick:  6th
Team: Miami Dolphins
Pick:  Ja’Marr Chase, WR (LSU)
Previous Pick:  Ja’Marr Chase

The top-rated wideout in this year’s draft class goes to Miami with the No. 6 pick in this mock draft. Chase ran a 4.34 at his Pro Day, and his metric profile comps to Odell Beckham.  Miami invested heavily in their offensive line last year, drafting Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt, and Solomon Kindley while signing Ereck Flowers. Everything sets up for picking Chase, who gives quarterback Tua Tagovailoa a dynamic outside weapon. The LSU rookie can also learn alongside veteran wideouts DeVante Parker and Will Fuller. I don’t see the Dolphins spending two consecutive Top 6 overall picks on quarterbacks.

Ja’Marr Chase NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 7th
Team: Detroit Lions
Pick: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Previous Pick: DeVonta Smith

Detroit trading for Jared Goff is much different than Miami drafting Tagovailoa with the fifth-overall pick. Detroit can get out of Goff’s four-year, $134 million contract after next season with just a $10 million cap hit. The Lions also have the Rams first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, giving them plenty of opportunities to build other positions in the future. When Fields falls to them at No. 7, there is no justification to take a 170-pound wideout over a potential franchise quarterback.

With the most vacated targets (313) of any NFL team, the Lions need explosive playmakers, but they have three picks in Rounds 2 and 3. I’m agreeing with Daniel Jeremiah and Ryan McCrystal by placing Fields in Detroit with the No. 7 overall pick of this mock draft.

Justin Fields NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 8th
Team: Carolina Panthers
Pick: Rashawn Slater, OL (Northwestern)
Previous Pick: Kyle Pitts

Carolina needs offensive line help, and they won’t take a redundant asset in Smith over an elite offensive lineman in Rashawn Slater. Peter Schrager of FoxSports reported that several teams feel Slater is a better prospect than Sewell. In mid-April, many mock drafts started to make the adjustment.

I still like Sewell better than Slater, but protecting a team’s quarterback is the top priority. At 6-foot-4, 304 lbs, Slater is not falling out of the Top 10.

Pick: 9th
Team: Denver Broncos
Pick: Trey Lance, QB (North Dakota State)
Previous Pick:  Trey Lance

Are you sold on Drew Lock? I’m not, and the Broncos are desperate for a franchise quarterback to compete in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. In one of the strongest QB classes in recent memory, Elway hedges to insure stability at the most important position. Denver has already shown they have strong interest in Lance.

Trey Lance NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 10th
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Patrick Surtain II, CB (Alabama)
Previous Pick:  Patrick Surtain II

One of the most confident picks in my mock draft. I understand owner Jerry Jones get fascinated by the athletic upside of offensive skill players, but Dallas has a massive need on defense. If Sewell or Slater falls, Dallas would gladly grab offensive line help here. But assuming they are gone, Dallas take the top CB in the draft.

Patrick Surtain II NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 11th
Team: New York Giants
Pick: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Previous Pick: Rashawn Slater

I don’t like this pick, but GM Dave Gettleman hasn’t been great at keeping his poker face in prior drafts.  Gettleman’s job is likely tied to the success of quarterback Daniel Jones, and with both Sewell and Slater off the board, look for the Giants to add the Heisman Trophy winner to their offense. Smith is only 170 lbs, but earned a 34.6% (95th percentile) college target share at Alabama. With Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram, the Giants need to provide quarterback Daniel Jones every opportunity to succeed. Unless one of the big two offensive linemen fall, Gettleman grabs a dynamic weapon.

DeVonta Smith NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 12th
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR (Alabama)
Previous Pick:  Jaylen Waddle

The Eagles have valiantly tried to address their lack of offensive playmakers with multiple offensive selections in recent history. The results have been less than stellar with Nelson Agholor (2015), Carson Wentz (2016), Dallas Goedert (2018), and Jalen Reagor (2020) all being selected in the first round. They need more offensive weapons, especially with Jalen Hurts entering his first full season as starting quarterback. Pairing Hurts with his former college teammate makes perfect sense in this spot. Evan Silva, McCrystal, and Lance Zierlein of NFL.com all have Waddle going to Philadelphia with this pick.

Jaylen Waddle NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 13th
Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Pick:  Christian Darrisaw, OT (Virginia Tech)
Previous Pick:  Christian Darrisaw

The trend continues with another team choosing to protect their young quarterback. Almost all reports have the Chargers picking and offensive lineman and cornerback with their first two picks. The Chargers badly need offensive line help. Los Angeles’ offensive line ranked dead-last per PFF, and cut veteran guard Trai Turner in March. One of my most confident positional picks, I’ll put the three-year Virginia Tech starter with raw physicality in the powder blue uniform.

Christian Darrisaw NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 14th
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (USC)
Previous Pick:  Alijah Vera-Tucker

If Darrisaw falls, Minnesota would make him an autopick, but Vera-Tucker represents the last top offensive lineman before the tier break. The Vikings spent $24 million on defensive upgrades this offseason, drastically trying to improve a defense that ranked 29th in points allowed. The interior of their offensive line is a major concern, and the 6-foot-4, 315 lb Tucker fills that need.

Alijah Vera-Tucker NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 15th
Team: New England Patriots
Pick: Micah Parsons, LB (Penn State)
Previous Pick:  Micah Parsons

It feels like Belichick is returning to his traditional roots of defensive success and two tight end sets. After bombing with Sony Michel and N’Keal Harry as past first round picks, I see New England taking this year’s top linebacker in Penn State’s Micah Parsons. Before opting out, Parsons was given incredibly high praise by Michael Renner at PFF.

Reports have surfaced about character issues with Parsons, but that is unlikely a concern for a legendary coach like Bill Belichick. The Patriots are getting back to their elite defensive ways, and Parsons provides a solid piece in the middle of the field.

Micah Parsons NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 16th
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Jaycee Horn, CB (South Carolina)
Previous Pick:  Jaycee Horn

GM Steve Keim made a splash in free agency with veteran wideout A.J. Green, running back James Conner, and defensive end J.J. Watt. Their one glaring remaining need is cornerback after losing Patrick Peterson to Minnesota. Horn is a physical press corner that dominated SEC play.

Jaycee Horn NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 17th
Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Tevin Jenkins, OT (Oklahoma State)
Previous Pick: Jaelin Phillips

Las Vegas signed defensive end Yannick Ngakoue to a two-year, $26 million contract, joining Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrell. The Raiders cleaned house on their offensive line by trading three-time Pro Bowl center Rodney Hudson, right guard Gabe Jackson, and right tackle Trent Brown. Las Vegas brought back The Raiders resigned 38-year old guard Richie Incognito, who is coming off an Achilles surgery. The Raiders need to select an offensive lineman with this pick, and I’ll go with Oklahoma State lineman Tevin Jenkins. Per PFF, Jenkins failed to allow a single sack over two seasons at Oklahoma State. At 6-foot-6, 320 lbs, Las Vegas starts their offensive line rebuild.

Pick: 18th
Team: Miami Dolphins
Pick: Kwity Paye, DE (Michigan)
Previous Pick:  Kwity Paye

Versatile athlete with superb quickness bolsters a strong Miami pass rusher. I don’t see CB here after using a first-round pick on Noah Igbinoghene last year, and adding former Detroit Lions cornerback Justin Coleman on a one-year deal in March. With the departure of Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson, the Dolphins are likely going edge rusher here. Ben Standig of The Athletic has either Paye or Miami’s Jaelin Phillips as the first pass rusher off the board.

Kwity Paye NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 19th
Team: Washington Football Team
Pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB (Notre Dame)
Previous Pick:  Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

Washington addressed a ton of needs in the offseason with wide receivers Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and cornerback William Jackson. Now they add a great pass coverage linebacker to one of the NFL’s best defenses in this mock draft. 

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 20th
Team: Chicago Bears
Pick: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR (LSU)
Previous Pick:  Terrace Marshall Jr.

I am on an island with Marshall, but we need to think like and NFL front office, not like fantasy analysts. NFL teams value outside wide receivers with size and speed. This draft is filled with smaller frame wideouts who are often considered slot receivers. Marshall’s physical profile is still a rarity in this draft.

The Bears are in “win or else” mode for general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy. They add a 6-foot-2, 205 lb wideout with 4.45 speed. Marshall’s talents were hidden by Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, but still tallied 24 targets and over 15 yards per reception the past two seasons. I am much higher on Marshall than most mock drafts.

Terrace Marshall Jr. NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 21st
Team: Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Caleb Farley, CB (Virginia Tech)
Previous Pick:  Caleb Farley

Farley comes with a risk in this mock draft after having a back microdiscectomy in late March after opting out of the 2020 season. He is expected to be ready for the start of the season, and has elite size at 6-foot-2 205 lbs. Farley is a converted receiver, with massive upside at a position the Colts desperately need. He certainly doesn’t lack for confidence.

Caleb Farley NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 22nd
Team: Tennessee Titans
Pick: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE (Georgia)
Previous Pick: Greg Newsome

Titans grab one of the top pass rushers in the draft in Azeez Ojulari. He is an impressive athlete with high-end character. Ojulari is slightly undersized at 6-foot-2, 249 lbs, but is lightning quick and is compared favorably to Las Vegas defensive end Yannick Ngakoue by Marcus Mosher.

https://twitter.com/RandleRant/status/1384539865690349572?s=20

Azeez Ojulari NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 23rd
Team: New York Jets
Pick: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE (Miami)
Previous Pick: Rondale Moore

Robert Saleh’s first pick as head coach comes on his defensive side of the ball. The Jets grab a top pass rusher in Miami’s Jaelan Phillips. He was the star at the Hurricanes’ pro day, running a 4.56 40-yard dash at 260 lbs. Phillips falls to the back of the first round due to injury concerns, but is still too talented for the Jets to pass up.

Jaelan Phillips NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 24th
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Najee Harris, RB (Alabama)
Previous Pick: Tevin Jenkins

Harris fits the Pittsburgh running back mold as a 6-foo-1, 232 lb bruising back that rarely fumbles.

Harris’ pass-catching skills are also superior as he generated a 13.4% (89th percentile) college target share at Alabama. With the big four offensive linemen off the board, the Steelers grab a positional need after losing James Conner to Arizona.

Najee Harris NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 25th
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Trevon Moehrig, S (TCU)
Previous Pick:  Trevon Moehrig

The Jaguars selected Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson with the ninth-overall pick in last year’s draft. This year, they again address the secondary with this year’s best safety, Trevon Moehrig.

Moehrig won the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back and is projected to the Jaguars by Matthew Freedman, Evan Silva, Daniel Jeremiah, and Mel Kiper. Jacksonville allowed 8.1 yards per attempt, the second-worst among all NFL teams. Let’s not overthink this one.

Trevon Moehrig NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 26th
Team: Cleveland Browns
Pick: Rondale Moore, WR (Purdue)
Previous Pick: Gregory Rousseau

The signing of Jadeveon Clowney to a 1-year $8 million deal allows the Browns to look to the offensive side of the ball with their first pick. Per PlayerProfiler, Rondale Moore comps to Colts’ wideout T.Y. Hilton. An angry runner after the catch, Moore plays with physicality despite a 5-foot-7, 181 lb frame. With great speed and agility, some believe Moore is the second-coming of Steve Smith Sr. Look for the Browns to add another offensive weapon to support quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Rondale Moore NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 27th
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Gregory Rousseau, DE (Miami)
Previous Pick: Azeez Ojulari

The Ravens add another strong pass rusher to their defensive front in this mock draft after losing defensive ends Matt Judon (New England) and Yannick Ngakoue (Las Vegas). Rousseau slides because of the premier placed on cornerbacks, and the Browns get an edge rusher who finished second in sacks behind Ohio State’s Chase Young in 2019.

Gregory Rousseau NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 28th
Team: New Orleans Saints
Pick: Rashod Bateman, WR (Minnesota)
Previous Pick:  Rashod Bateman

Losing Drew Brees leaves the Saints offense in unfamiliar territory, and with the departure of Emmanuel Sanders their WR2 is Tre’Quan Smith. Bateman has size, early production, and played alongside current Buccaneers WR Tyler Johnson. His 4.43 Pro Day speed provides a huge weapon in the Superdome for either Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston. It just seems right to have a mock draft with New Orleans selecting an offensive weapon.

Rashod Bateman NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 29th
Team: Green Bay Packers
Pick: Zaven Collins, LB (Tulsa)
Previous Pick:  Zaven Collins

We know this likely won’t be a wide receiver, and the Packers needs defensive help in this mock draft as they push for one last Super Bowl for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Collins won both the Bronko Nagurski Trophy and Chuck Bednarik Award as the nation’s top defensive player. At 6-foot-4, 260 lbs, Collins is a very safe option with a high NFL floor.

Zaven Collins NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 30th
Team: Buffalo Bills
Pick: Jayson Oweh, Edge (Penn State)
Previous Pick:  Jayson Oweh

The Bills road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City, which means they need pass rushers. At 6-foot-5, 237 lbs, Oweh ran an eye-popping 4.36 at Penn State’s pro day. He’s raw but reminds me of Jason Pierre-Paul with his high ceiling. Buffalo needs a running back, but can fill that need in the next two rounds.

Jayson Oweh NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 31st
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Greg Newsome, CB (Northwestern)
Previous Pick: Landon Dickerson, C (Alabama)

Dickerson has been dropping down draft boards, as mentioned by Anthony Amico of FootballGuys.

The Chiefs add to their pass defense after the 31-9 Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay. Kansas City adds a long-armed cornerback who ran a 4.38 at Northwestern’s pro day.

Greg Newsome NFL Draft Profile

Pick: 32nd
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Kadarius Toney, WR (Florida)
Previous Pick: Kadarius Toney

The signing of Giovani Bernard gives the Super Bowl champions a wealth of running backs. With Antonio Brown (presumably) gone, let’s give Tom Brady one more weapon in wide receiver Kadarius Toney to wrap up this mock draft. The 5-foot-11 Florida product with 4.38 speed is a great kick returner and can break short passes into big plays.

Kadarius Toney NFL Draft Profile

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