No matter where you look, the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites to win Super Bowl LV. It’s hard to blame the masses for this logic, as they have an elite offensive trio of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce operating under arguably the best offensive mind in football in Andy Reid. However, despite their record and their Super Bowl odds, this team isn’t some unstoppable juggernaut. Kansas City is probably the best team in the league, but the Chiefs have some flaws that make them a little overrated.
The Kansas City Chiefs Are Really Good, But Overrated
First, let’s start by addressing that the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs are a very good team. If I had to bet on one team to win the Super Bowl, I’d probably pick them. However, fans and win probability models alike think that they’re the NFL’s best team by a comfortable margin, and that isn’t necessarily true. 538 gives Kansas City a 35% chance to win the Super Bowl, while the next closest team is at 18%. Put simply, that’s an absurd level of confidence in a team that doesn’t truly deserve it.
There's a lot of variance involved in the NFL etc etc but I just don't see how any team except for maybe — MAYBE — the Packers can beat this Chiefs team
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 21, 2020
Let’s start with the easy stuff – the record. Right now, Kansas City sits comfortably atop the NFL with a sterling 13-1 record. However, not all wins are created equal, as shown by the past six weeks of action. After dismantling the New York Jets in early November, Kansas City has not won a game by more than a single possession. In total, the Chiefs are 6-0 yet have won those six contests by just a combined 24 points, and never by more than six.
It’s obviously better to win than lose, but winning like this isn’t particularly sustainable. Historically speaking, there isn’t a consistent way to win one-score games over an extended period of time. Even though Kansas City went undefeated over this stretch, they probably shouldn’t have.
Additionally, a look at Kansas City’s offensive and defensive efficiency shows that they’re not that much better than the other elite NFL teams. According to RBSDM.com, Kansas City is actually slightly worse than the Green Bay Packers on a per-play basis. Additionally, the Tennessee Titans are in the same tier, while the Buffalo Bills aren’t that far back.
https://twitter.com/DLPatsThoughts/status/1341143719618220039?s=20
Tennessee falls back when filtering by win probability, but GB is still there. Same deal with 1st and 2nd downs, except the Browns somehow join the elite group too pic.twitter.com/HpnwzI6gD9
— Dave Latham, Lifelong Bucs Fan (@DLPatsThoughts) December 21, 2020
Possible Seeding Advantages
Of course, winning in the postseason is about more than just being a good team. Playoff seeding can go a long way in determining the eventual Super Bowl champion, especially now that only one team has a first-round bye. Barring something completely unexpected, Kansas City should earn the top seed, which will obviously improve their chances at winning it all.
Kansas City’s talent combined with their seeding makes them the clear AFC favorite, but it doesn’t explain the disparity between them and the Green Bay Packers. Like the Chiefs, the Packers have full control of the top seed and, as previously mentioned, are just as good as Kansas City on a per-play basis. However, despite the similarities, 538 only gives the Packers a 13% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
This implies that the oddsmakers believe that the AFC is a relative cakewalk compared to the NFC. However, facts do not support this assumption. If the Chiefs want to make it to the Super Bowl, they’ll need to take down some combination of the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, and Tennessee Titans. All of these teams are at or near the top of the tier rankings and are anything but easy competition.
The Packers, meanwhile, face a much easier NFC. The New Orleans Saints are a fantastic team, but Drew Brees is clearly running on fumes. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are as talented as any team in the league, but they’re wildly inconsistent and should struggle to beat the Packers in a rematch. The Los Angeles Rams just lost to the New York Jets and the NFC East is the NFC East. This leaves the Seattle Seahawks as Green Bay’s primary threat, and that team can only go as far as Russell Wilson can carry them.
Ultimately, there is no reason for the Kansas City Chiefs to be such overwhelming favorites for the Super Bowl. Their overall level of play isn’t THAT much better than the other elite teams, and their playoff seeding can only explain away so much. This is still a good team that should compete late into the season, but the Chiefs are a little overrated.
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