For the first time in 20 years, the New England Patriots have a question at the quarterback position. Cam Newton has filled in admirably following the departure of Tom Brady, and is easily outplaying his one-year, $1.75 million contract. However, the former first-overall pick is a free agent next year and will be far more expensive on his next contract. Should the Patriots pay up, or should they go after somebody else?
Who Will Be New England Patriots Quarterback in 2021?
Evaluating Cam Newton
After a long stint with the Carolina Panthers, the Patriots brought over Cam Newton to compete with incumbents Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer. After easily beating out the competition, Newton started all the games in which he was healthy and has played like his usual self.
Just like in Carolina, Newton is a mid-tier quarterback playing with an underwhelming supporting cast. Through 11 games, Newton ranks 17th in PFF grade, 23rd in EPA/play, and 24th in DAKOTA. Newton’s terrible supporting cast has obviously played a part in lowering his efficiency numbers, but anyone hoping a change of scenery would bring more consistency to his game has been disappointed.
Newton is an average starter, but not all average starters are cut from the same cloth. Some quarterbacks, like Newton and Jameis Winston, are heavily volatile passers that can look like the best quarterback one week, and the worst the next. Others, like Jared Goff, won’t give you MVP-caliber performances, but they won’t be the reason you lose too many games.
Which type of quarterback you prefer is ultimately a matter of preference, but I prefer the volatile one. You need elite quarterback play to win a Super Bowl, and Newton has the potential to give you that, at least in short bursts. Ultimately, committing to Newton wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but there are better quarterbacks out there. The only question is if the Patriots have a realistic shot of getting one.
The Other Internal Options
Before looking around the league, the Patriots should take a look at their own depth chart and see if they have anyone capable of being the next franchise quarterback. Currently, the depth chart consists of Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham. Hoyer obviously isn’t the answer, and Stidham probably isn’t either.
Stidham, a 2019 fourth-round pick, burst onto the scene with a fantastic preseason debut against the Detroit Lions. In that game, the rookie completed 14 of his 24 passes for 179 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Of course, it’s worth noting he did this against third-stringers, and Hoyer was even better in that game. Earning the start, Hoyer completed 12 of his 14 passes for 147 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Since that time, Stidham hasn’t done anything to prove that he should be a starting NFL quarterback. After an up-and-down finish to his preseason, Stidham earned the backup job and threw just four regular-season passes as a rookie. Stidham had a chance to compete for the starting job over the offseason, but lost the role almost immediately to Cam Newton, and started the season as the third-string quarterback.
Thanks to injuries and ineffectiveness, Stidham has thrown 27 passes in his NFL career. In that admittedly small sample, the former fourth-round pick has completed just 48.1% of his passes for 5.1 yards-per-attempt, one touchdown, and four interceptions. His 14.8% career interception rate is dramatically higher than Nathan Peterman’s (8.9%).
Based on everything we’ve seen to date, Jarrett Stidham is not the quarterback of the future. The Patriots can obviously keep him around in the offseason to see if magic happens, but they shouldn’t bank on him being anything more than an average backup.
The Free Agent/Trade Market
Finding a starting quarterback in free agency is never easy. Right now, the best quarterbacks set to hit the market are Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, and Mitchell Trubisky. Newton is a better option than all of these guys, aside from Prescott.
If Prescott somehow makes it to the open market, then the Patriots should do everything in their power to bring him to Foxboro. A former fourth-round pick, Prescott has quietly been one of the most efficient passers in the league and the gem of the 2016 quarterback class. Anyone that thought Prescott was only good because of his supporting cast has been proven wrong, as Andy Dalton has not played well in relief of Prescott.
Unfortunately for the Patriots, it’s hard to imagine a world where they get Prescott. Even if the Cowboys don’t want to extend him, they can still use the franchise tag to keep him around for another season. More likely than not, Prescott will be a Cowboy in 2021.
With the free agent market likely being dry, the Patriots could look to a trade. As of this posting, the most likely target appears to be old friend Jimmy Garoppolo. Despite going to the Super Bowl in 2019, Garoppolo has not been good since taking over in San Francisco.
Kyle Shanahan’s glorified pitching machine is in one of the best situations in the NFL and has barely played at a league-average level. It’s hard to see that improving, as New England has a worse supporting cast and offensive scheme than the 49ers. Considering New England would need to give up draft capital for the right to his massive contract, the Patriots are better off just sticking with Newton.
The 2021 NFL Draft
Cam Newton is the best veteran quarterback the Patriots are likely to find in 2021, so they should bring him back for next year. However, that doesn’t mean they should invest in the position. New England is still on the outside looking in for the postseason, and they will probably hold a top-15 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Unfortunately, they played their way out of one of the elite quarterback prospects. Trevor Lawrence is the best collegiate quarterback since Andrew Luck, and Justin Fields isn’t that far behind. Barring something completely unforeseen, these two will be the first two players off the board, and New England has no way of getting there.
Fortunately for the Patriots, this is considered to be a good quarterback class. While they may have to trade up, New England could still end up taking someone like BYU’s Zach Wilson with their first-round pick. Wilson might not have faced the highest level of competition, but he has made plenty of NFL throws while showing the ability to read a defense. He could compete to start right out of the gate and has the tools to take over by 2022.
If the Patriots want to address other positions early in the draft, they should have the opportunity to grab a developmental guy on Day 2. Georgia’s Jamie Newman could be overlooked after opting out and has the chance to fall to New England later in the draft. Newman won’t challenge Newton’s job in 2021 but has the physical gifts to excel in the NFL with some development.
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
