Before the regular season, we published an article covering our expectations for Minnesota Vikings’ first-round wide receiver Justin Jefferson. We said that “writers have spilled a lot of digital ink setting unrealistic expectations for his rookie season” before ultimately concluding that “Minnesota should be thrilled if Jefferson produces more than 50 catches and 700 yards.”
From our vantage point, a successful rookie season merely involved solid production that allows the Vikings to be balanced in their passing attack. The Vikings, after all, don’t exactly inspire confidence in fans after Laquon Treadwell’s one-catch, 15-yard rookie season. Nevertheless, the first four weeks suggest that we were wrong about Jefferson. It’s wise not to overreact to one month of games, but the early results suggest that Jefferson is already one of the best receivers in the NFL.
Minnesota Vikings Rookie Phenom Justin Jefferson
By this point, NFL fans will be familiar with Jefferson’s production. Jefferson, according to Pro Football Reference, has 16 catches, 348 receiving yards, and a touchdown. Jefferson’s current pace translates to 64 catches, 1,392 yards, and four touchdowns over a full season. Randy Moss’ sensational rookie year resulted in 69 catches, 1,313 yards, and 17 touchdowns. Touchdowns aside, Jefferson is basically mirroring Moss’ production through four games. Somewhat ironically, the only player in the last 10 years to have more receiving yards in their first four games is Stefon Diggs.
Back-to-back 100-yard receiving games for Justin Jefferson.
The rookie can ball. @JJettas2
📺: #MINvsHOU on FOX
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/wvEEn0SFTV pic.twitter.com/xypFDhisfc— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2020
Even more impressive is the broader context. Under normal circumstances, Jefferson’s numbers would be incredible. Keep in mind, though, that Jefferson is accomplishing this feat even though he didn’t have any preseason games, let alone the usual practice time that accompanies the NFL off-season. Moreover, Jefferson was used sparingly in the season’s opening weeks. He played 36 snaps in Week 1 and 29 snaps in Week 2. The past two weeks, in contrast, have involved Jefferson being on the field for 51 snaps each game. His production certainly justifies the increase in playing time.
At this point, the question isn’t whether Jefferson has firmly established himself as a starter ahead of Bisi Johnson (he has). Instead, the question is whether he has leapfrogged Adam Thielen as Minnesota’s number one receiver. For what it’s worth, Jefferson is currently Pro Football Focus’ top receiver, one spot ahead of Adam Thielen.
While the PFF score is impressive, perhaps the most impressive detail surrounding Jefferson’s season is how he is producing. Like many Vikings fans and writers, we had concerns about whether Jefferson could produce along the outside in the NFL; these concerns have been completely unfounded.
This man really griddy’d into the end zone
🎥🐐@LAHGRIDDY2x @JJettas2pic.twitter.com/wvzjxILWRF
— Football Is Life (@FootbaIl_Tweets) September 28, 2020
Jefferson’s impact over the past two weeks can’t be overstated. All seven of his Week 3 catches went for first downs, and one of them was a spectacular touchdown catch. In Week 4, all four of Jefferson’s catches went for more than 20 yards. The Minnesota Vikings and Justin Jefferson are a great fit; he’s going to be key to the team’s success moving forward.
Jefferson Against the Seattle Seahawks
If they have any hope of beating the Seattle Seahawks, the Vikings will need to get Jefferson involved early and often. The Seahawks have announced that they won’t have Jamal Adams for the game, which certainly makes life easier for Kirk Cousins and friends. Even still, Minnesota is going to have their hands full. The defense is going to struggle to contain Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. A large part of the game plan for Minnesota will involve maintaining possession of the ball, which is where Jefferson fits in. It’s tough for Wilson to beat the Vikings if he is sitting on the bench.
Though we’ve been critical of his play calling, Gary Kubiak has begun to turn things around for the Minnesota offense. Jefferson is largely responsible for rejuvenating the Vikings’ offense, and Kubiak has wisely chosen to feature him more in the pass game. Teams will now start devoting more attention to Jefferson, a reality that will make life more difficult for him personally but easier for other players in the offense. Kubiak needs to capitalize on Jefferson’s success by finding opportunities for other players.
Seattle will undoubtedly spend their week devising a plan to slow Minnesota’s elite trio of weapons: Jefferson, Thielen, and Dalvin Cook. The Vikings need to exploit this. Irv Smith Jr. has done very little this season, and Kyle Rudolph can be tasked with far more than his current workload. Chad Beebe and Bisi Johnson are capable of contributing in a limited role. The Vikings should incorporate these players into their game plan as a way of keeping Seattle’s defense honest.
Justin Jefferson’s emergence means that there should be room on the field for the Minnesota Vikings’ role-players to operate. Indeed, his individual success is great news for Vikings fans, but the greater impact may rest in how he impacts the rest of the team. On Sunday night, the Vikings not only need to capitalize on Jefferson’s explosiveness but also the attention he attracts from the opposing defense. Doing so gives them the greatest chance of pulling off an upset in prime time.
