Since Justin Jefferson was drafted in the first round, writers have spilled a lot of digital ink setting unrealistic expectations for his rookie season. Fans and writers alike would be wise to adjust their expectations. Justin Jefferson’s rookie season will be a success if he simply contributes to a balanced Minnesota Vikings offense.
Justin Jefferson Rookie Season
Receivers often struggle to contribute in their rookie season. The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia recently found that over the past 10 years, first-round receivers average 541 receiving yards in their rookie season (Laquon Treadwell isn’t helping here). Kapadia further notes that (again, over the past 10 years) only five out of 34 first-round receivers produced more than 1,000 yards in their rookie season. If you move beyond the first round, there are only eight receivers who produced 1,000-yard seasons.
Enjoy the flight ✈️@KirkCousins8 x @JJettas2 pic.twitter.com/hFhuQw42Ga
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) August 20, 2020
Last season represented somewhat of an anomaly. Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Deebo Samuel all had tremendous seasons. Keep in mind that Brown was the only one to surpass 1,000 yards. These four receivers prove that it’s far from impossible to make an immediate impact in one’s rookie season. Nevertheless, Vikings fans shouldn’t be too quick to assume that Jefferson will seamlessly adjust to the NFL.
As Vikings fans already know, the vast majority of Jefferson’s production came from the slot at LSU. Rotoworld provides some succinct details about his production last season, so interested fans should take a look. Here are a few notable numbers: 78 percent of his routes were from the slot. 92 percent of his catches came from the slot. 1,540 of his receiving yards were created from ins, outs, and crossing routes. Vikings fans should be cautiously optimistic about these numbers.
Oftentimes, fans – and coaches, for that matter – are far too concerned about what a player can’t do rather than what he can do. Can Jefferson consistently win along the outside against NFL press coverage? Frankly, it’s hard to say; he’ll likely struggle early. Can Jefferson consistently win on underneath routes from the slot in the NFL? Again, it’s difficult to say, but the college numbers suggest that he has a good chance.
Solid route here by Justin Jefferson pic.twitter.com/tZa0mznqVQ
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) August 16, 2020
In Take Your Eye Off The Ball, Pat Kirwan (a former NFL coach and executive) explains that smart coaches spend their off-season trying “to maximize the strengths they see emerging” while working to “eliminate the obvious problem areas.” When he coached for the Vikings, Pat Shurmur brought this sentiment down to his play-calling, often explaining that “it’s about the players, not the plays.” In other words, Shurmur understood that the key rests in understanding what a player does well. A smart coach adjusts their plays to player strengths. Just think back to when John DeFilippo was offensive coordinator for an example of a coach failing to adjust the plays to his players.
The Vikings, thankfully, have a smart coaching staff. Expect them to use Jefferson from the slot, especially early in the year. The Vikings have their bye in Week 7. The likeliest scenario is that the Vikings opt to keep Jefferson primarily in the slot during the season’s opening six weeks. They’ll head into the bye with a greater understanding of Jefferson’s abilities, perhaps prompting them to expand his repertoire if he is successful. In so doing, Gary Kubiak may have more flexibility in his play calls and personnel packages. In the meantime, Vikings fans should expect to see Jefferson in the slot against the Green Bay Packers. Kubiak will find ways to get the ball into his hands.
Replacing Diggs
Justin Jefferson will not replace Stefon Diggs. It’s plausible that one day Jefferson will replicate Diggs’ success, but that will only come with time. The Vikings will replace Diggs by getting increased production from several players: Jefferson, Irv Smith, Dalvin Cook, and Adam Thielen foremost among them. As a result, success in Jefferson’s rookie season does not mean a straightforward, one-for-one Diggs replacement.
Indeed, evaluating Jefferson’s success needs to consider his impact within the offense in its entirety. Mike Zimmer consistently reiterates that his vision for the offense is to be unpredictable because of their balance, a perspective Kubiak shares. Jefferson’s success ought to be measured by how much he can contribute to actualizing Zimmer’s vision.
Somewhat ironically, the Vikings and their fans should hope Jefferson mirrors Diggs’ rookie numbers. In 2015, Diggs had 52 catches, 720 yards, and four touchdowns. Jefferson will be operating within an offense where he’ll, at best, be the third or fourth option. Thielen and Cook will attract plenty of attention from Kirk Cousins, and they should rightfully be the first and second option in the passing game. Minnesota should be thrilled if Jefferson produces more than 50 catches and 700 yards, especially since he’ll also be competing with Smith, Bisi Johnson, and Kyle Rudolph.
If Justin Jefferson can be a legitimate weapon out of the slot – someone who demands attention from opposing defenses – then his rookie season will be a success.
