The Washington Football Team made the surprising decision to release Adrian Peterson during roster cuts, effectively making Antonio Gibson the top running back on the depth chart. Gibson, a rookie third-round pick, has one of the most exciting college highlight reels you’ll ever see, but rarely touched the ball during his time at Memphis. From a fantasy football perspective, is Antonio Gibson ready to be an every-down back, or will this end up being a timeshare approach with Bryce Love, Peyton Barber, and J.D. McKissic?
Fantasy Football: Antonio Gibson Profile Without Adrian Peterson
Projected Workload
Based on talent alone, Antonio Gibson is probably the best back in Washington. The rookie third-round pick is a big play waiting to happen, as he averaged 11.2 yards-per-attempt in college and scored 14 touchdowns on just 77 touches.
That said, he probably won’t see a full, unquestioned workload. Even without Peterson, Washington still has three other backs on the roster. According to Adam Levitan of Establish the Run, most beat reporters believe Bryce Love will be inactive most weeks, leaving Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic as the primary backups.
Of these two, Barber is probably going to affect Gibson the most. The longtime Tampa Bay Buccaneer definitely isn’t the most talented runner in the world, but he’s capable of reading his blocks and picking up what the blocking provides. Considering Gibson’s inexperience as a runner, Barber probably will see a high percentage of the carries, at least early in the season.
McKissic, meanwhile, is more of a pass-catching specialist. Like Barber, he’s not the most explosive player but is definitely capable of picking up what’s there and not actively ruining plays. Gibson should be able to beat out McKissic for the pass-catching role, but there is a question about pass blocking. Gibson’s small collegiate sample means that there’s basically no film of him in pass protection, so we have no idea if he’s up for the task. While it’s unlikely, there is a chance that Gibson loses some work to McKissic if the coaching staff doesn’t trust his blocking.
Ultimately, Gibson should be the main back, but don’t be surprised if Barber and McKissic see the field more than any fantasy owner would like.
Antonio Gibson and the Washington Offense
Workload and talent are obviously important for fantasy football, but you can’t forget to look at the overall projection for the offense. Right now, it’s hard to imagine Washington having a good offense in 2020. Dwayne Haskins left a lot to be desired as a rookie, and the offense doesn’t have any real playmakers outside of Terry McLaurin.
According to a data study performed by FantasyPros, scoring offense plays a huge role in dictating the fantasy finish of a running back. By their numbers, only 23.2% of the top-24 running backs come from a bottom-10 scoring offense. This makes sense, and bad offenses allow for fewer scoring opportunities, and touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy running backs.
Even if you consider Gibson to be more of a receiver than a running back, the numbers still aren’t in his favor. According to that same study, only 14.9% of top-24 receivers come from a bottom-10 scoring offense. Now, this could be a chicken or egg situation, as it’s hard to have a good offense without good receivers. Still, the fact remains that Gibson is going to have to overcome a lot to be a top player at his position.
Antonio Gibson Overall Outlook
Antonio Gibson is an incredible talent and a big play waiting to happen. However, that might not be enough for him to be the fantasy darling everyone is hoping for. The coaching staff clearly believes in him, but Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic are still going to see their fair share of the snaps. The presence of these two will eat into Gibson’s snap percentage and limit his overall ceiling.
Additionally, Washington’s offense will probably be one of the worst in the league. Historically speaking, it’s hard for any position to produce a top-24 finish when playing in a bottom-10 offense. Ultimately, the idea of splitting snaps in this offense means that you can really only start Antonio Gibson as a flex play, at best. In an ideal world, you’ll keep him on your bench in Week 1, see what his snap share looks like, and adjust accordingly.
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