The 2020 NFL season is right around the corner, and sports bettors everywhere are looking forward to finally being able to put some money down on their favorite sports. Latest NFL lines currently have Indianapolis Colts Head Coach Frank Reich with +1750 odds of winning Coach of the Year honors, and I like those odds.
Before we get started, let’s make something clear. This article isn’t guaranteeing that Frank Reich wins the Coach of the Year award. To try to predict anything with that type of certainty is a fools’ errand. However, this is saying that I feel the odds currently do not accurately reflect Reich’s chances of winning it all. The third-year Indianapolis Colts head coach gives you a decent chance at an above-average payoff, and that’s what these bets are all about.
Frank Reich A Smart Bet for Coach of the Year
Exceeds Expectation Award
Historically speaking, the Coach of the Year award doesn’t go to the NFL’s best coach. If it did, Bill Belichick and Andy Reid would have won the award every year for the past two decades. Instead, this award becomes more of an “exceeds expectations” award. From this mindset, it’s actually somewhat foolish to bet on any of the currently favored Coach of the Year candidates. After all, it’s hard to exceed expectations if said expectations are already high.
If you want to win Coach of the Year, you need to win your division and have some type of interesting story built into your season. Last year, John Harbaugh won the AFC North with Lamar Jackson taking the league by storm. In 2018, Matt Nagy won Coach of the Year because the Bears went 12-4 and proved themselves right for going all-in with the Khalil Mack trade (remember those days)? This trend goes on year after year, and Reich has the narrative and divisional odds required to earn Coach of the Year.
The Division
The 2019 Indianapolis Colts season ended before it truly began. Andrew Luck retired in the weeks leading up to the season, forcing Jacoby Brissett to handle starting duties. The former third-round pick performed admirably, but he’s ultimately a backup-caliber quarterback. Even with this unfortunate situation, Reich still managed to go a respectable 7-9.
That record should improve in 2020. Philip Rivers is now under center, and he represents a significant upgrade on Brissett. Looking around the rest of the division, it’s clear to see that every other team in the division is due to get worse. Bill O’Brien traded away a superstar in DeAndre Hopkins, the Titans are due for a massive amount of regression, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are a dumpster fire. Winning the division should be a pretty easy feat.
The Frank Reich Narrative
Any tmie a borderline Hall of Fame quarterback switches teams, it’s going to draw some attention. After a long run as the Chargers starting quarterback, Philip Rivers is now a Colt. The former first-round pick showed some signs of slowing down last year, but he’s still a solid starter. The Colts’ elite offensive line should keep him upright and allow him to execute the gameplan and operate a high-functioning offense.
From a narrative perspective, everyone is going to love the story of how Frank Reich rejuvenated Philip Rivers’ career. Reich is one of the better offensive coaches in the game, and his status around the league will continue to rise with his latest work with Rivers. If this happens, he should win Coach of the Year.
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
