The 2005 draft class was loaded with quarterback talent. First overall pick Eli Manning and 14th overall pick Ben Roethlisberger both have two Super Bowl rings and, while Roethlisberger is significantly better, are likely Hall of Famers. 22nd overall pick J.P. Losman turned out to be a bust, but third rounder Matt Schaub more than made up for it with almost half a decade of quality performance. That leaves Philip Rivers, who was the best quarterback of his class and a deserving Hall of Famer.
For his career, Rivers has thrown for 59,271 yards and 397 touchdowns. He led the league in touchdowns in 2008, in yards per attempt in each year from 2008-2010, and in completion percentage in 2013. He has a career record of 123-101. However, a lot of these stats can be misleading. For example, Eli Manning’s counting stats are similarly impressive, but he was not a good quarterback. He is considered a fringe Hall of Famer, but that is only due to his two Super Bowl championships. If Manning had 0 rings, he would have no shot at the Hall of Fame. Rivers does have 0 rings, so he needs more than simple counting stats to make a strong Hall of Fame case.
Why the Career Resumé of Philip Rivers Is Hall of Fame-Worthy
Among the Best
Since he was drafted, Rivers is fifth in the NFL in EPA/play among quarterbacks with over 5,000 snaps. He is fourth in cumulative EPA, trailing just Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. That is some pretty good company. EPA/play is a rate stat, so longevity would do nothing to help a quarterback in that regard. He ranks ahead of Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, and more exceptional quarterbacks in terms of EPA/play. He has longevity, he has efficiency, what else does he need?
Best Season
There are a few to choose from, but Rivers’ 2009 campaign was probably the best season of his career. During the regular season, he led the league with an astonishingly high 0.35 EPA/play. He also had a 91.8 Pro Football Focus passing grade, also best in the league. That demonstrates that his production was not a result of luck or his environment. The Chargers went 13-3, winning all 11 in a row to cap off the season. Rivers finished just third in MVP voting behind Brees and Peyton, but he was undoubtedly the NFL’s best quarterback that season. Overall, Rivers’ 2009 is one of the better quarterbacking seasons in NFL history. Unfortunately, it ended with a disappointing 17-14 loss to a ferocious New York Jets defense in the Divisional Round. Rivers didn’t play that badly, but he was unable to get the win.
Rivers has a few other excellent seasons under his belt. He also led the league in EPA/play in 2008 and defeated Peyton’s Indianapolis Colts in the first round of the playoffs, another season in which he arguably deserved MVP. In his 2010 season, he led the league in passing yards and PFF grade while ranking 2nd in EPA/play behind Tom Brady, who won the first unanimous MVP in NFL history.
Three-Year Peak
From 2008-2010, Rivers was undoubtedly the best quarterback in football. He threw 92 touchdowns, ranked first in EPA/play, and led his team to a combined 30-18 record. He had a pretty good roster around him, as he was throwing to guys like Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, and Malcom Floyd, and a defense that ranked 11th in EPA/play during that stretch. While he did not have a shortage of help, it’s not like he was surrounded by the league’s best roster. His impressive PFF passing grades of 83.5, 91.8, and 92.8 in his respective seasons show that he was the one doing most of the heavy lifting on offense.
Late-Career Resurgence
After quite a few mediocre seasons, it seemed like Rivers was never going to return to his prime form. The Chargers stumbled out of the gate in 2017, losing each of their first four games while looking like the same disaster that they were in both 2015 and 2016. They would proceed to turn a corner in Week 5, embarking on a 9-3 stretch in which Rivers led the league in EPA/play. They still ended up missing the playoffs at 9-7, but the organizational momentum was there heading into 2018.
Rivers had an incredible 2018 season, ranking third in EPA/play and PFF passing grade. The Chargers went 12-4 and looked like one of the teams to beat heading into the playoffs. After defeating the Baltimore Ravens, the Chargers looked primed to march into Gillette Stadium and defeat Brady and the New England Patriots. Needless to say, that game did not go to plan. The Patriots led 35-7 by halftime and eventually won 41-28. That game might be Rivers’ last playoff appearance in his long career, and it was a disappointing one. If his time with the Colts doesn’t end in a Super Bowl run, Rivers will have never won a ring.
Rather Be Lucky Than Good
Rivers’ playoff career has been filled with misfortune, often at the hand of Tom Brady and the Patriots. In 2006, Rivers’ first season as a starter, the Chargers went 14-2, the best record in the league. They hosted the Patriots in the Divisional Round, and they held Brady and Co to just 13 points into the fourth quarter. Leading 21-13 with just over 6 minutes to go, Chargers defender Marlon McCree picked off Brady in what seemed to be the dagger. However, McCree immediately fumbled the ball and the Patriots recovered. Brady led a scoring drive from there. The Patriots got the ball back and tacked on a field goal to take the lead. Down 24-21, Rivers led a potential game-tying drive into Patriots territory. However, kicker Nate Kaeding missed the game-tying kick and the Patriots ended up winning the game in the most improbable fashion.
Playoff Hardship
This loss was probably the worst loss for the Chargers in the Rivers era, but the playoff misfortune didn’t stop there. After a strong 2007 season, the Chargers defeated both the Tennessee Titans and the Colts in the first two rounds of the playoffs. This earned them a spot in the AFC championship game against the Patriots. There was one small issue: in the game against the Colts, Rivers tore his ACL. He somehow managed to play through the injury, but with a limited Rivers, the Chargers stood no chance against the undefeated Patriots. The Chargers made the playoffs in 2008, but their 35-24 loss against the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers was more of a formality.
Three years after their horrible loss to the Patriots, the Chargers hosted Mark Sanchez and the 9-7 New York Jets. In that game, kicker Nate Kaeding missed three field goals in a game in which they only lost by three points. This was the last time the Chargers were truly competitive until their 2018 season. They missed the playoffs in 2010 due to a historically bad special teams. They made the playoffs in 2013, but they were no match for Peyton and the record-breaking Denver Broncos offense. Considering all that has happened over the years, Rivers should not be blamed for his lack of rings. His teams have been absurdly unlucky.
First Ballot
Phillip Rivers is a surefire Hall of Famer. He is one of the best quarterbacks of his generation. He was the very best quarterback in the league for a couple of seasons while also maintaining a solid level of play throughout his career. While he has failed to win a ring, many of his playoff losses were to no fault of his own. Overall, he is a fantastic quarterback and deserves any recognition that he gets.
