The Los Angeles Chargers have their new quarterback of the future in Justin Herbert, whom they took with the sixth overall pick. The question still remained of who would be behind center for Week 1. Head coach Anthony Lynn has indicated that Tyrod Taylor is the planned starter for Week 1, but that Herbert will have the chance to take the job. While Taylor isn’t the worst stopgap measure by any means and a very good backup to have, this still doesn’t feel like the right move for the team. They should prepare to have Herbert start right away.
The Los Angeles Chargers Should Start Justin Herbert in Week 1
…Depending on the Season’s Expectations
Now to be clear, this argument does rest on the idea that the Chargers are going into the season intending to win now rather than tank for another high draft pick next year. If they wish to do the latter, then starting Taylor is definitely a better move, and then they could still start Herbert down the stretch once they were well and out of playoff contention. But it doesn’t feel like they’re intending to tank.
Though not choosing to upgrade over Taylor is a little perplexing (more on him later), most of the Chargers moves this off-season have not indicated a long rebuild. In fact, this was one of their more active free agency periods since Tom Telesco took over as general manager. They shored up the offensive line a bit and brought in Chris Harris and Linval Joseph to the defense. They also locked up Austin Ekeler and franchise tagged Hunter Henry, both two very important weapons.
The Chargers are pretty well set at almost every position, especially on defense. There is still a bit of a question mark at left tackle, even after the draft. And though they did draft two wide receivers, the #3 receiver spot is still up for grabs. But even with a not-perfect quarterback situation, this team still does not look like one that is tanking. They have not been off-loading big-name players for nothing but draft picks. They have not been passive in free agency – just the opposite, which is actually unusual for them. The Chargers organization is still in a “win now” mindset. One could debate whether that mindset is realistic or not. But the point remains. And starting Taylor wouldn’t seem to line up with that mindset.
Why Taylor Should Remain the Backup
We’ve already seen what we should expect from Tyrod Taylor over three years with the Buffalo Bills and three games with the Cleveland Browns. And that is this: he’s got quite solid mobility and a decent arm. But he’s ultimately just a game manager. He won’t lose you the game by any means. But he can’t bring you back from behind. Much like with Alex Smith, you fall two scores or more behind with Taylor as your quarterback, it’s over. He’s never thrown more than six interceptions in a season… but his highest season passing yardage total is 3,035. By 2010s standards, that’s not good.
So success with such a quarterback depends on either maintaining a lead or at least keeping neck-and-neck – and even in the case of the latter, it can be iffy sometimes. The Chargers usually get a couple of blowout victories per year (this was the case even in the midst of a 5-11 season last year), but on average their games tend to be more tightly contested.
Taylor is definitely good at taking care of the ball. And as previously stated, he is a very solid backup to have. But he’s not a franchise quarterback. We already know that. So if the plan is in fact to “win now” – or at least to not tank – then sticking with a stopgap measure who’s not even above average doesn’t make a ton of sense. Not when you have your quarterback of the future waiting.
Starting the Rookie
Of course, the problem is that we haven’t seen any NFL play out of Herbert at all yet – and therefore we don’t know what to expect. And not many rookie quarterbacks are capable of coming out and playing that well in their first season. But at least there’s a chance; as opposed to playing with Taylor, where the best-case scenario would probably be 7-9 or 8-8. Maybe 9-7, if the defense actually stayed healthy. And Chargers fans know how rarely that happens. A repeat of 5-11 would be just as possible.
Look at some of the quarterbacks since the turn of the millennium who have started right away (or almost right away) and been successful. Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson. (There’s a few more, but these are the best examples.) All three of these ended up in the playoffs in their rookie season while playing 16 games (or in Roethlisberger’s case, 15–close enough). How did that happen? Well, playing better than average for a rookie helped. But part of the difference was that these quarterbacks already had good teams around them when they arrived. Unlike the likes of Eli Manning or Matthew Stafford, whose teams were still rebuilding when they showed up.
Last Word
The Chargers may be coming off a 5-11 season, but just the year prior they were 12-4. And then a lot of things happened, like Philip Rivers regressing, Melvin Gordon completely imploding, and basically the entire safety lineup being injured. Justin Herbert would be joining in 2020 and getting a lot of tools to succeed. He’ll have Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Henry to throw to. The offensive line should be improved. Gordon is gone. The defense didn’t really lose any major starters (except Adrian Phillips) and added a couple more pieces anyway.
The biggest factor may be the defense (specifically the secondary) staying healthy this time. But if Justin Herbert were to start sooner rather than later, he’d be in a good position. Maybe he’d turn out not to be quite ready yet – and if so, it could be a learning experience for him. But if he could play above average – above the level of Tyrod Taylor, specifically – then the apparent ambition of the Chargers to “win now” might actually stand a hair’s chance of working out.
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