The biggest question going into the 2020 NFL Draft for the Los Angeles Chargers was who the new franchise quarterback was going to be. That question was answered fairly quickly and without a ton of unexpected fanfare. The first three quarterbacks went much as they had been originally projected for months – Joe Burrow to the Cincinnati Bengals, Tua Tagovailoa to the Miami Dolphins… and Justin Herbert to the Chargers. While some Chargers fans are happy with the pick, others are second-guessing it a bit – for different reasons. But given their greatest need and the surrounding circumstances, this was still the right decision to make.
Why Justin Herbert Was the Correct First-Round Pick for the Los Angeles Chargers
A Post-Rivers World
Something that non-Chargers fans often forget is that they are only two years removed from a 12-4 season. Then 2019 happened, where Philip Rivers started to struggle – and so did their starting running back, Melvin Gordon. A lot of things went wrong in 2019 (including the secondary and offensive line being decimated by injuries). But much of it came down to the quarterback play. Rivers threw multiple game-sealing interceptions in the final minutes of the games.
The point here is, the Chargers are still essentially only a quarterback away from competing again. When Rivers left, that did leave Tyrod Taylor and Easton Stick on the roster. Taylor is a pretty decent stopgap measure and definitely a good backup to have. But he’s not the guy that would be able to lead the team back to the playoffs – not on his own power. He’s not a “play from behind” quarterback. And Stick? Well, we haven’t really heard anything about him since he got drafted and he hasn’t usurped Taylor on the depth chart at any point.
With all of that in mind, quarterback had to be the top priority for the Chargers. And sure, the rookie might not get them to the playoffs either in year one (if he even started). But he’d at least have the potential to in a year or two… and one never knows if someone will come out on fire right out of the gate.
The First Round Situation
It had been projected for a while that the Chargers would probably take a quarterback in the first round – probably Herbert, although there were rumors that Miami might take him instead and the Chargers might end up with Tagovailoa instead. But as time went on, fans and some experts started to think maybe it would be better for the Chargers to pass on a quarterback and take someone else – maybe Isaiah Simmons or an offensive tackle (and to be fair, they do still have a bit of a question mark at left tackle).
The problem with that is that the options would’ve been less fruitful if they had waited till the second round to get their quarterback (setting aside that they jettisoned their second and third-round picks in reality). That would’ve left Jacob Eason, Jake Fromm, and Jalen Hurts. (Jordan Love was originally projected as second-round too, but that didn’t happen.) Fromm seems to be more of a game manager type. Hurts could flourish in the right offense but is far riskier due to leaning more on the run and not being as strong a passer. Not everyone can be Lamar Jackson; plus, that kind of quarterbacks on average has a much shorter shelf life anyway. That would leave Eason as the best option at that point. And there would be no guarantee he’d still be available.
Playing it Safe
Now let’s assume that they had the choice between Herbert and Tagovailoa if the latter had slid. Herbert would still have been the safer and probably better choice because of Tagovailoa’s health risks. And if they chose to pass and wait… then if Eason hadn’t been available, they would’ve been stuck with guys who are less likely to be true franchise quarterbacks. That made Herbert the correct – and safe – pick to make.
Of course, the “playing it safe” routine only works if Justin Herbert himself is a good prospect. He does have his share of detractors – which bizarrely include him possibly not being a good leader because he’s supposedly too quiet, which he’s been quick to dissuade. But he’s still top ten for a reason. The one thing that might need some work is some of his short-range decision making. Most of his interceptions in 2019 (only six of them) came within less than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. But he seems to be a good deep passer. The majority of his touchdowns came on longer passes, which fits this offense better. And his stats with Oregon the last two years have been quite good (61 total touchdowns, 13 interceptions – plus a Rose Bowl win and a 12-2 record in 2019).
Also, Herbert’s been compared to Carson Wentz, which sounds like a pretty good deal as long as he’s better at staying healthy than Wentz. Sure, Wentz may not be as big a star these days. But we tend to forget that a few years ago he was an MVP frontrunner until he got hurt. And this past season, he squeaked the Eagles into the playoffs despite his wide receiver corps being made up of practice squad guys and dudes off the street. If Herbert turns out to be as good as Wentz, the Chargers will be back to being a contender no problem. And if they aren’t, it probably won’t be Herbert’s fault.
Last Word on Justin Herbert
At the end of the day, if the Chargers wanted to go back to contending soon, Justin Herbert was the best choice for them to make in the first round given the risks with waiting – or with sticking with Tyrod Taylor. Yes, sometimes risks are good and necessary, but this all would have been an unnecessary risk. Whether Herbert actually does work out or not is not a guarantee. Nothing ever really is when it comes to new NFL players. But the decision-making here was still correct for Tom Telesco and company. And now… we wait.
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