Tom Brady knows a thing or two about winning championships. The six-time Super Bowl winner and four-time Super Bowl MVP is no longer a Patriot and will be spending his twilight years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, NFL fans have to wonder if Brady can carry that magic from New England to Tampa Bay.
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Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl Contenders Without Tom Brady?
Most quarterbacks entering their age-43 season don’t have anything left to give, but Tom Brady is not most quarterbacks. While he suffered a bit of a statistical regression in 2019, most of that was due to having one of the worst supporting casts in all of football.
The Patriots never replaced Rob Gronkowski, and the trio of Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, and Antonio Brown lasted a combined seven games in New England. Without those four, Brady’s best receivers were an injured Julian Edelman, a hobbled Mohamed Sanu adjusting to the offense, an untested rookie in N’Keal Harry that missed the first half of the season, and undrafted free agent Jakobi Meyers. Overall, New England’s receivers ranked dead last in terms of separation per route run.
Tampa Bay’s Offense
Lack of separation won’t be an issue in Tampa Bay. Brady has two of the best receivers in the entire league in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It’s not hyperbole to say that these are the best outside receivers Brady’s had since Randy Moss in 2007. Additionally, O.J. Howard has tons of potential and could have a fantastic year with Brady calling the shots.
Don’t overreact to Brady’s potential fit with head coach Bruce Arians. Arians likes to throw the ball deep, and Brady has a history of succeeding in just about any type of offense. Back in 2017, the Patriots traded for Brandin Cooks in the offseason and lost Julian Edelman to an ACL injury in the preseason. Forced to invent themselves overnight, Brady’s average depth of target rose to 10.2 yards. This worked for him, as Brady won the third MVP award of his career behind yet another incredible season.
The last major worry comes down to Brady’s offensive line. Brady isn’t the most mobile quarterback in the world, but he doesn’t need mobility to evade a pass rush. Brady’s pocket presence and ability to correctly call out blocking assignments are second to none, and he excels at making offensive lines look better than they actually are. As long as the line isn’t an outright disaster, Brady should succeed with these weapons. Tampa Bay’s offensive line shouldn’t be atrocious, as they ended the year as PFF’s seventh-best pass blocking unit. Brady has everything he needs to succeed and should be able to put up elite numbers in 2020.
The Defense
Tampa Bay should have an elite offense, but it’s hard to win a Super Bowl without an adequate (or better) defense. In recent years, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t exactly known for their defensive prowess. However, there is reason to believe that will change in 2020.
For one, the Buccaneers actually had a solid defense last year. The points per game doesn’t reflect that, but that’s entirely the fault of Jameis Winston. Tampa’s former quarterback threw 30 interceptions last season and constatntly put the defense in position to fail. When adjusting for Winston, the defense actually outperformed expectations.
According to Football Outsiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended the year as the fifth-best defense in DVOA. Tampa Bay led the league in rush defense DVOA while finishing a respectable 12th in pass defense DVOA. Defensive performance is fickle and highly volatile, but the Buccaneers aren’t losing any significant contributors and should be able to put up similar results in 2020.
Points per game is going to go down thanks to Brady not throwing 30 interceptions, and the secondary acutally has room to grow. Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis are both young cornerbacks with bright futures, and Jamel Dean looked like he could develop into one of the biggest steals in the 2019 NFL Draft. If even one or two of those guys take a leap in 2020, then this should be one of the better secondaries in football.
