15 weeks on NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 16 odds and spreads. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 16 Odds, Spreads, Lines, Game Picks
Houston Texans (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense should be hard to find when Deshaun Watson goes up against Jameis Winston. Watson is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league, Winston is one of the most volatile, and neither defense is particularly great against the pass. Both teams should put up points at will, but Winston’s tendency to turn the ball over is going to be the difference in this one. You can’t make too many mistakes against an offense as good as Houston’s, and Winston makes mistakes all the time.
Pick: Texans win, cover spread
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5)
This one is going to be an old-school defensive slugfest between two of the best defenses in the league. The New England Patriots defensive success is well-documented, but the Bills have a pretty stifling unit of their own. New England’s offense hasn’t looked right all year, and Sean McDermott has had Tom Brady’s number for the past two years. However, Josh Allen hasn’t shown enough to believe he’s capable of going on the road and taking down a Bill Belichick defense. That said, this is probably going to be a close game that goes down to the wire.
Pick: Patriots win, don’t cover spread
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6)
Who on Earth are the Los Angeles Rams? The Rams are 2-2 over the last four weeks and haven’t played a single close contest in that timeframe. Jared Goff is inconsistent as ever and giving Todd Gurley a full workload isn’t enough to transform this team back into their 2017-2018 form. The San Francisco 49ers, meanwhile, are coming off a heartbreaking last-second loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers are easily the better team with the better coach, quarterback, and defense.
Pick: 49ers win, cover spread
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at New York Jets
Devlin Hodges might not be the long-term answer under center, but he doesn’t have to be. Pittsburgh’s defense remains one of the best in the league, and all Hodges has to do is not make mistakes. He made tons of mistakes against Buffalo’s fantastic defense, he should find more success against New York. Sam Darnold can pick apart weak defenses, but he has yet to show he can consistently take down the best in the league. This one might get ugly, but the Steelers have made it this far by pulling out these types of ugly wins.
Pick: Steelers win, cover spread
New Orleans Saints (-1) at Tennessee Titans
This matchup features two of the best quarterbacks of 2019 in Drew Brees and Ryan Tannehill. The former Miami Dolphin couldn’t get the win in Week 15 but put together another strong performance against the Houston Texans. He should continue his strong play against New Orleans, but he’s facing long odds to beat Drew Brees and a stacked New Orleans Saints roster. If Tannehill pulls this off, it’ll be his greatest accomplishment yet as a Titan.
Pick: Saints win, cover spread
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-6)
The Carolina Panthers are either going to start Kyle Allen or a guy who couldn’t beat out Kyle Allen for the vast majority of the season. Jacoby Brissett might not be the future, but he’s considerably better than Allen and (presumably) Will Grier. Even if the quarterbacks were equals, the Colts have the better roster, coaching and have home field advantage. Christian McCaffrey can only do so much on his own.
Pick: Colts win, cover spread
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
The Tank Bowl is finally here. While Miami messed up their tank by winning three games, the Bengals still control their own destiny en route to the first overall pick. The Bengals worked long and hard for this, so don’t expect them to mess up their chance at Joe Burrow. The Dolphins may be a three-win team, but they’ve played a handful of close contests which could have gone either way, and overall look like a competitive club a decent chunk of the time. The same really cannot be said for the Bengals.
Pick: Dolphins win, cover spread
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns
The offseason champions of the AFC North host the actual champions of the AFC North in what should be a bloodbath. Baker Mayfield looks nothing like the guy who finished 2018 on such a high note and this offense simply cannot play up to their talent level. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, is the presumptive MVP frontrunner and should have no trouble moving the ball up and down the field against a Myles Garrett-free defense. From a coaching standpoint, John Harbaugh runs circles around the overmatched Freddie Kitchens. Even with home field advantage, it’s hard to imagine Cleveland standing much of a shot in this one.
Pick: Ravens win, cover spread
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Minshew Mania is back and better than ever following the last-second comeback against the Oakland Raiders. He may not be the most consistent passer in the league, but Gardner Minshew is easily better than his sixth-round pedigree would imply and should put up a decent outing against Atlanta. However, it won’t be enough to stop Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing attack. Jacksonville’s defense is a below-average unit, so Ryan and company should be able to move the ball pretty effectively throughout the game. Minshew can keep it close, but it’s hard to see him pulling off the road upset.
Pick: Falcons win, don’t cover spread
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-3)
Dwayne Haskins is starting to look like a real NFL quarterback. The rookie first-round pick had what was easily the best game of his career Sunday, completing 19 of 28 passes for 261 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He proved he can take advantage of a bad defense, and the New York Giants have one of the worst in the league. Nobody knows whether Daniel Jones or Eli Manning will start in Week 16, but both players have a similar performance level at this point in time. This one could get ugly and could go either way.
Pick: Giants win
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-6.5)
The Drew Lock hype train came back to Earth in Week 15 but should get right back on the rails against a bad Detroit Lions secondary. Detroit cannot stop anything through the air, and the league is starting to figure out David Blough. Kenny Golladay might make a few big plays, but the Lions are going to have a tough time moving the ball all day. The same cannot be said for the Broncos, who should thrive with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant.
Pick: Broncos win, cover spread
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
The Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders are both coming off bad losses in Week 15. The Chargers got spanked by the Minnesota Vikings while the Raiders blew a lead in their last home game before moving to Vegas. Outside of last week, the Chargers actually started to string together some momentum, while Oakland’s loss to the Jaguars is par for the course. Philip Rivers might not have too much left in his tank, but he’s still good enough to go out and take down the Raiders. However, this battle of underachieving squads is probably going to be a close affair; a 6.5-point spread is just too much to bet against.
Pick: Chargers win, don’t cover spread
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
The Cardinals are finally back to their winning ways after taking down the Cleveland Browns, while Seattle suddenly finds themselves atop the NFC West. Russell Wilson is playing a non-Lamar Jackson MVP candidate and should continue to shred up Arizona’s defense. The Seahawks should win comfortably, but a 9.5-point spread is just too large. Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals are a good offense and should be able to keep this one relatively close. Whether it’s garbage time scoring or an actual back and forth affair, this one should end with a fairly competitive score.
Pick: Seahawks win, don’t cover spread
Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles
The battle for the NFC East should be one of the most interesting and fun games of the week. Despite their identical records, the Dallas Cowboys appear to be a considerably better team than the Philadelphia Eagles. While Dallas slipped up against some weak opponents early in the season, they tend to play their best against top competition. The same cannot be said for a Philadelphia Eagles squad who barely squeaked out a victory against the Washington Redskins. The Cowboys crushed the Eagles the first time around, and home-field advantage isn’t enough to swing the tide in Philadelphia’s favor.
Pick: Cowboys win, cover spread
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
Patrick Mahomes is fighting through just about every injury known to man but managed to look like his 2018 self in Week 15. The gunslinging quarterback plays in the best offensive system in the league and can be downright unstoppable when everything’s clicking. The Chicago Bears have a good offense but they’ll be hard-pressed to stop Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs passing attack. The same cannot be said for the other side of the ball, as Kansas City has quietly developed a solid pass defense. Mitchell Trubisky is going to have a tough time moving the ball through the air, and Chicago doesn’t have the ground game to keep up with Kansas City’s offense.
Pick: Chiefs win, cover spread
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
One of 2019’s best quarterbacks host Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in what should be a must-win for both sides. Kirk Cousins didn’t have his best game in Week 15, but he’s played at a ridiculous level for the vast majority of the season. Whether or not he can sustain this performance is unknown, but he gives the Vikings a chance to win every single time he takes the field. Adam Thielen is back and healthy, giving Cousins one of the best receiver duos in the league. The Packers have made a season out of winning ugly games, but it’s hard for that style of play to work against an offense like this one. They should keep it close, but the Vikings should prevail.
Pick: Vikings win, don’t cover spread
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