Derrick Henry and Deshaun Watson will go head-to-head in a clash of two AFC South teams vying for playoff contention. Both are great plays for DFS this week. Find who else to build your daily NFL lineups around in Week 15.
Week 15 DFS Core Plays: Play Derrick Henry
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson $6,800
Watson has dominated the Tennessee Titans over his career. In three career games versus the Titans, Watson has amassed 803 passing yards and thrown eight touchdowns along with 138 yards and two touchdowns rushing. By my math, that’s more than three touchdowns per game. The Titans have played well recently, but so has Watson. Vegas sees the game as being high scoring. Per Vegas Insider, the Houston Texans-Titans game O/U 50.5, is currently the highest game total on the slate. Therefore, we will want considerable exposure to players in this game. If Will Fuller plays, he is a great option to stack with Watson in GPPs. If Fuller is out, DeAndre Hopkins becomes a must-play when rostering Watson. This game presents an excellent opportunity for game stacks. One of my favorite game stacks for the week is Watson/Hopkins/Fuller/Henry.
Ryan Tannehill $6,500
On the other side of the Texans-Tennesse game is a priced up Tannehill. Also, priced up for this week is Tannehill’s go-to receiver A.J. Brown ($6,000). However, if you play Tannehill, it makes sense to stack him with Brown to capitalize on their correlation. Tannehill is in a great spot this week. The Texans allow the third-most DK points to quarterbacks this season. Oh, did I mention the Texans-Titans game has the highest Vegas total of the week? It’s worth stacking this game in multiple ways this week. Tannehill has played well in the Tennessee offense. His ceiling is just as high as Watson’s.
The Ryan Tannehill Effect: Per @ESPNStatsInfo, the Titans are 6-1 (5-1-1 ATS) since Tannehill took over as the starter.
All seven games have gone over the total.
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) December 13, 2019
Kyler Murray $5,600
My, how the mighty have fallen. A few weeks ago, Murray was consistently priced in the mid-6k range on Draft Kings. Now, after a couple of down games against good defenses, he is priced $800 less than he was just two weeks ago. This week, Murray and the Arizona Cardinals host the Cleveland Browns. The over/under (49) is the second-highest on the slate. The Browns are two-point road favorites. Cleveland had a formidable defensive line and secondary until they lost their star pass-rusher, Myles Garrett. The Browns rank bottom-six in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks on the season, making Murray even more appealing for DFS.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry $8,500
Derrick Henry has been an unstoppable force in his last five games. He’s had DK finishes of 24.9, 36.1, 32.5, 27.6, 26.9. Henry is putting up PPR scores in line with Christian McCaffrey. Except, he’s doing it more through brute force-yards per carry and touchdowns, rather than piling up tons of receptions. Henry now sets his sights on the Texans defense that allows the sixth-most DraftKings points to running backs. He’s a high-priced player worth building around.
Chris Carson $7,500
Carson is in a great spot this week. Rashaad Penny has been ruled out, leaving Carson to handle the majority of work in the Seattle backfield. He gets a matchup with the Carolina Panthers who allow the most DK points to running backs this season. Carson will be a popular choice for cash game lineups this week. He is chalk worth eating.
Todd Gurley $6,000
Gurley has come on recently. The restraints put on him by his team earlier in the season appear to now be off. It’s do-or-die time for the Rams, who are fighting for their playoff lives. Look for the Rams to keep leaning on Gurley this week when they face the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have not yet beat a team with a winning record this season, and they rank in the middle of the league defending running backs. Gurley should be able to help lead the Rams to a victory this week, having a good fantasy day in the process.
Raheem Mostert $5,200
Mostert has hit his ceiling two weeks in a row now, prompting San Francisco 49ers head coach, Kyle Shanahan, to name him the lead-back. The Niners run game has been hitting on all cylinders with Mostert in the backfield. Now, it sounds like he will continue to see the majority of running back touches for the team. The 49ers host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta is out of playoff contention and in evaluation-mode. All things point to another good fantasy day for Mostert Sunday.
Shanahan said that Raheem Mostert have given the #49ers "no choice" but to give him more opportunities. Put that in the good thing column #49ers
— Tracy Sandler (@TracyFGSN) December 9, 2019
Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore $6,600
Moore was $7,000 on DraftKings last week. Take the discount on one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL this season. Week 14 was the first game Moore received less than nine targets since Week 5. Moore is a bounce-back candidate this week when he plays the Seahawks. They’ve allowed the third-most passing yards this season.
Keenan Allen $6,300
Allen is a high volume mid-price receiver with lots of appeal for cash game lineups. Allen has at least five catches in five of his last six games. The Chargers will need Allen’s services this week when taking on the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have scored in the mid-20s or higher in eight of their 13 games this season. They have only failed to reach 20 points three times. However, the Vikings defense has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to wide receivers on the season, making Allen’s matchup even more enticing for DFS.
Deebo Samuel $4,800
Samuel has been a star in the second half of the season. He’s either had a 100 yards or a touchdown reception in four his last five games. Samuel failed to do either Week 14. However, he still had a good performance, catching five passes for 76 yards, adding two carries for 33 yards. The 49ers are finding ways to get Samuel the ball, making him a desirable DFS option at only $4.8k.
Chris Conley $3,600
With D.J. Chark ruled out for Week 15, Conley becomes a tremendous value on DraftKings. Chark has shown a good rapport with quarterback Gardner Minshew earlier in the season. Now he will serve as one of his top pass-catchers in this week’s matchup with the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are susceptible to the pass. They allow the sixth-most DraftKings points to receivers. Dede Westbrook ($4,600) is also in a good spot.
Jaguars to be without Chark (ankle) Sunday https://t.co/VI3ZDT0cEo
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) December 13, 2019
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz $6,000
Ertz should be busy Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles are down their top two wide receivers in Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. Therefore, Ertz figures to serve as the top target in the passing game for Carson Wentz on Sunday. Even before the season-ending injury to Jeffery, Ertz had seen 11+ targets in four of the last five. He could get closer to 15 targets this week.
Tyler Higbee $3,900
It appears that Gerald Everett will miss his third straight game. In his absence, Higbee has been sensational, scoring 26.7 and 21.6 DraftKings points the past two weeks. Higbee gets another tight end-friendly matchup this week. He plays the Cowboys, who allow the sixth-most DraftKings points to tight ends. Fire up the red-hot Higbee and enjoy the savings he affords you.
Ian Thomas $3,100
With Greg Olsen ruled out again this week, Thomas becomes a great value play on DraftKings. Last week without Olsen, Thomas saw ten targets. He caught five passes for 57 yards and a touchdown. This Sunday, Thomas gets a dream tight end matchup with the Seahawks, who allow the second-most DK points to tight ends this season. Playing Thomas helps us fit in the high priced studs we want to play Sunday.
Panthers' Greg Olsen (concussion) ruled out for Week 15 https://t.co/K4FDOzObmu
— numberFire NFL (@numberFire_NFL) December 13, 2019
Defense
Kansas City Chiefs $3,500
The Chiefs defense was excellent when facing their in-division rivals, the Denver Broncos, earlier this season. In that matchup, the Chiefs defense scored 24 DraftKings points. With playoff seeding on the line, the Chiefs defense will be highly motivated to have another good showing against Denver this Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams $2,900
Since Week 7, the Rams defense has been outstanding. Their only poor showing came against the Baltimore Ravens. Outside of that game, the Rams defense has averaged 16 DK points per game in the other six games during that stretch. This week’s opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, struggle against winning teams this season. Look for the Rams to have a strong showing against them on Sunday.
Player pricing and data by Draft Kings
Vegas odds by vegasinsider.com
