The fantasy football playoffs are officially upon us, and Patrick Laird has a chance to make an immediate impact off the waiver wire. Laird spent the majority of the season on Miami’s bench but figures to see a big role with Kalen Ballage on the injured reserve. Laird’s going to see a large percentage of the carries, but can you trust him to start in Miami’s underwhelming offense?
Fantasy Football: Patrick Laird Week 14 Outlook
The Situation
The most important factor in fantasy football for running backs is the situation and projected usage. No matter how talented a player is, it’s impossible for a running back to have success with a bad offensive line or if he’s going to be on the bench for a high percentage of the snaps.
The good news is that Laird should have the backfield all to himself. Kalen Ballage earned the start in Week 13, but Laird became a three-down back once Ballage suffered his injury. According to Pro Football Reference, Laird played in 59% of the offensive snaps, while Ballage took 15% of the work. Based on this usage, it’s safe to project Laird with a 70-75% snap count, which is fantastic for fantasy.
The bad news is that starting for the Miami Dolphins isn’t that valuable for fantasy. Miami has arguably the worst offensive line in football, which is going to make life difficult for Laird. According to Football Outsiders, Miami’s offensive line ranks dead last in adjusted line yards. Making matters worse is that Laird is going up against a New York Jets defense which ranks second in rush defense DVOA. Laird has a terrible matchup under any circumstances, and his blocking isn’t going to give him any running lanes. He’s going to see his fair share of carries, but he’ll need to use his own talent if he’s to have any sort of efficiency.
Patrick Laird the Player
Unfortunately, Patrick Laird isn’t a very talented player. The Miami Dolphins entered the league with arguably the worst roster in football, and Laird was fourth on this underwhelming depth chart. Kenyan Drake is actually good, and he could barely maintain fantasy relevance during his time in Miami. Kalen Ballage was actively bad, but the coaching staff decided that Laird wasn’t worth more than two or three carries per game with Ballage in the lineup.
Early returns suggest the Dolphins were wise to bury Laird on the depth chart. During his first taste of extended action, Laird ran the ball 10 times and picked up just five yards. This obviously isn’t great and makes even Kalen Ballage look like a strong runner. The lone silver lining is that Laird hauled in four of his five targets for 43 yards. He appears to be a more natural pass-catcher than Ballage and could see produce some fantasy points as a dump-off option out of the backfield.
Ultimately, Patrick Laird is going to be a high-volume, low-efficiency play. He’s not going to produce much as a runner but could salvage his day if he scores a touchdown. Much like Kalen Ballage, the idea of putting him in your lineup is absolutely sickening. However, unlike Ballage, Laird has a chance to maintain some fantasy relevance if he can make a few plays in the passing game. If you’re a top seed and need a safe flex play, you could do a lot worse than Laird. However, if you’re a six seed and need a high-upside play for any hope of surviving, look somewhere else.
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