13 weeks on NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 14 odds, spreads and over/unders. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 14 Odds, Spreads, Over/Under, Game Picks
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Chicago Bears
The Dallas Cowboys suffered a humiliating defeat on their home turf in Week 13 and now travel to Chicago to take on the Bears. Mitchell Trubisky had the best game of his season on Thanksgiving Day, but that says more about the rest of Trubisky’s season than it does Week 13. The Detroit Lions can make any offense look good, and the Cowboys have demonstrated an ability to beat up bad teams. Chicago’s defense isn’t as good as it used to be, so Dak Prescott and company should find success moving the ball.
Pick: Cowboys win, cover spread
Over/Under: 44 [Pick: Over]
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
The Carolina Panthers are on a downward spiral while the Atlanta Falcons are in the midst of a lost season. After two impressive weeks, Atlanta’s defense regressed to their usual subpar self. Look for that level of play to continue against Kyle Allen and the Panthers. Allen is nobody’s idea of a franchise quarterback, but he’s able to take advantage of bad defenses. Likewise, Matt Ryan should find some success through the air, with or without Julio Jones. This should be a high-scoring affair that goes down to the wire.
Pick: Panthers win
Over/Under: 48.5 [Pick: Over]
Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Buffalo Bills
The Baltimore Ravens finally looked stoppable against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13. However, that game took place in the rain and the 49ers have what is probably the best defense in the league. It’s going to be hard for any defense to replicate that gameplan, so you’ll have to assume Lamar Jackson returns to his MVP form against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are particularly susceptible to the running game, so Jackson and company should find success on the ground. Josh Allen made major strides in his second year, but he’s not ready to keep up with this offense.
Pick: Ravens win, cover spread
Over/Under: 44 [Pick: Under]
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)
Andy Dalton came back from the bench to give Cincinnati their first win of the season, while Baker Mayfield couldn’t overcome third-string rookie Devlin Hodges. Despite las week’s outcomes, it’s hard to imagine the Bengals actually going on a winning streak. This is still one of the most talent-poor rosters in football, and Mayfield and company have proven capable of overcoming these types of defenses in the past. Dalton might keep it relatively close, but the Browns should come away with the win.
Pick: Browns win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 43 [Pick: Under]
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-14)
The Green Bay Packers are considerably better than the Washington Redskins in every facet of the game. However, betting on Aaron Rodgers and company to cover a spread this large feels like asking too much. Washington’s run-heavy style of play favors low-scoring affairs, and the Redskins are actually getting good at running the ball. The Packers will win this comfortably, but there probably won’t be enough possession to turn this into a blowout.
Pick: Packers win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 42 [Pick: Under]
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-14)
This spread assumes Matthew Stafford won’t be back in Week 14, which is probably a safe bet. With Stafford sidelined, David Blough earns another start under center. The undrafted rookie played well in Week 14, recording 280 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. While most of that production came on three throws, he still looked like an adequate backup. The Vikings are going to win this one, but a 14-point spread feels like too much to bet on.
Pick: Vikings win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 42.5 [Pick: Under]
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
This battle for NFC supremacy should be one of the best matchups of the week. San Francisco and their elite defense travel to New Orleans to take on Drew Brees and the Saints. San Francisco’s defense is probably the best in the league, but they’re going to struggle to stop Brees within the confines of the Superdome. The Saints offense probably won’t hit their usual level of production, but it should be enough to earn the win. Jimmy Garoppolo simply isn’t capable of going on the road and pulling the upset against an NFC superpower.
Pick: Saints win, cover spread
Over/Under: 45 [Pick: Under]
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-6.5)
Why in the world is Adam Gase coming back in 2020? Following last week’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Jets became the first team in history to lose to two teams with 0-7 records or worse. Sam Darnold is a fine quarterback, but there is no reason to believe in Gase’s ability to win games. Brian Flores is quietly having a great season with Miami and should be able to lead to his team to an upset victory. Ryan Fitzpatrick is in the midst of a hot streak, which should only help Miami’s odds.
Pick: Dolphins win
Over/Under: 44 [Pick: Over]
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
The Indianapolis Colts currently sit at 6-6 and head on the road to face the 5-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This game is hard to predict simply due to the volatility of quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston has the ability to look like the best and worst quarterback in the league on a drive-by-drive basis. If Good Jameis shows up, the Buccaneers should win comfortably. If Bad Jameis shows up, bet on the Colts. There’s been far more Bad than Good Jameis this season, so I’m taking the Colts.
Pick: Colts win
Over/Under: 50.5 [Pick: Under]
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-8)
Drew Lock played well in his NFL debut, but he faces a tough task in Week 14 against the Houston Texans. Deshaun Watson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and should move the ball on Denver’s defense with minimal effort. Houston’s defense isn’t anything to write home about, but Romeo Crennel should be able to confuse the rookie passer.
Pick: Houston wins, covers spread
Over/Under: 41.5 [Pick: Under]
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Philip Rivers played well against the Broncos, but that was his first positive showing in weeks. By and large, Rivers appears to be slowing down, and will probably regress to his typical form against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars, meanwhile, will probably continue to move forward with Gardner Minshew under center. Minshew is considerably better than Nick Foles and should move the ball against the Los Angeles defense. Playing at home only bolsters Jacksonville’s shot of pulling off the upset.
Pick: Jaguars win
Over/Under: 44 [Pick: Under]
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Oakland Raiders
The Tennessee Titans have looked like a completely different team ever since Ryan Tannehill took over. The former Miami Dolphins quarterback has installed a new sense of life into the offense, transforming Tennessee from the definition of mediocrity into one of the better units in the league. The Oakland Raiders, meanwhile, aren’t nearly as good as their 6-6 record would imply. They have yet to beat a team by more than eight points and suffered blowout losses in each of their past two games.
Pick: Titans win, cover spread
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Over]
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3)
Calling for the end of Tom Brady never ends well, but it’s safe to say there is something wrong with that offense. Outside of Julian Edelman, Brady doesn’t have a single reliable weapon in the passing game. The defense is great, but Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson proved that it can be exploited by an elite quarterback. Patrick Mahomes obviously fits the bill, and he should pick up his first victory against the 2018 Super Bowl champions.
Pick: Chiefs win
Over/Under: 49 [Pick: Over]
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (EVEN)
The Los Angeles Rams shut down the Arizona Cardinals offense in Week 13, but they should bounce back against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers obviously have a strong defense, but Arizona was playing like one of the better units in football prior to last week’s action. Devlin Hodges, meanwhile, looks like an improvement on Mason Rudolph. This one is going to be close, but the Steelers should come away with the victory.
Pick: Steelers win
Over/Under: 45.5 [Pick: Under]
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Despite their impressive Week 13 victory, the Los Angeles Rams are still trying to find their 2017-2018 form. Jared Goff regressed in a big way and Sean McVay has yet to prove that he can adapt to opposing gameplans. Seattle may not have the best defense in the world, but they have a truly elite quarterback in Russell Wilson. Wilson should be able to power Seattle to a comfortable victory in this one.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover spread
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Over]
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-8)
Despite losing to the Miami Dolphins, the Philadelphia Eagles still enter Week 14 as huge favorites over the New York Giants. It’s hard to blame Vegas for these odds, as Daniel Jones has turned into a turnover machine. The Giants defense is still bad and Carson Wentz and company should move the ball with minimal resistance. Look for the Eagles to bounce back with a get-right game.
Pick: Eagles win, cover spread
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Under]
