To the surprise of many, undrafted free agent David Blough is going to start for the Detroit Lions in place of the injured Matthew Stafford and Jeff Driskel. Blough has yet to make a pass in an NFL game, so the rookie brings tons of uncertainty to the fantasy football values of Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. With the fantasy football playoffs right around the corner, let’s take a dive into the film and see if you can trust Golladay or Jones with David Blough under center.
Fantasy Football: David Blough Impact on Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay
David Blough Film Study
Wide receiver production is heavily impacted by the tendencies of the quarterback, so let’s take a look at the type of player David Blough is. The first thing that jumps off the page with Blough is his arm strength – or lack thereof. Blough didn’t shy away from stretching the field at Purdue, but he clearly doesn’t have the ideal NFL arm. His passes hung in the sky for seemingly an eternity before finally reaching the intended target.
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Arm strength is important in the NFL, but it’s not everything. Some quarterbacks have below-average arms but are still able to push the ball deep with elite accuracy. Unfortunately, Blough’s deep accuracy is questionable at best, and he probably won’t find much success when he throws deep to the sideline. The NFL’s margin for error is considerably smaller than college, and that’s bad news for Blough.
Fortunately, there are some good things in Blough’s college tape. David Blough is a relatively athletic quarterback who excelled when working outside of the pocket. The Purdue coaching staff routinely used Blough out of the pocket, trusting him to read the defense and either run or throw as appropriate. Blough typically made the right read, although he preferred to throw instead of run if both options were open. Additionally, he was fine as a traditional passer when targeting the middle parts of the field.
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Ultimately, there is a reason Blough was an undrafted free agent. His arm and deep accuracy leave a lot to be desired and he rarely was asked to read an entire defense. However, he’s fine on the move and in the short/intermediate portions of the field. When asked to only read one or two defenders, he typically makes the right decision. David Blough probably isn’t a franchise quarterback, but the right coaching staff should be able to generate some offense with Blough under center.
Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay Impact
David Blough is going to have no success throwing to the deep sidelines, and that’s bad news for both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. According to Sharp Football Stats, Golladay and Jones have combined to see 69% of the deep left targets and 61% of the deep right targets thus far in the season. The coaching staff will obviously change their gameplan to fit their talent, but it’s no secret that these two players are at their best working the deep part of the field.
The good news is that Jones and Golladay can still be successful at the other levels of the field. According to Sharp Football Stats, Jones has a 70% success rate on deep middle targets and a 72% success rate on short right targets. Kenny Golladay, meanwhile, has a 69% short middle success rate and a 53% short left success rate. All of these marks are above-average, showing that Jones and Golladay have the ability to succeed if placed in different roles.
Trusting a David Blough passing attack is obviously asking for trouble from a fantasy standpoint. The Lions will probably try to run the ball and minimize Blough’s workload. That said, when they do have to throw the ball, look for Golladay and Jones to remain the primary reads. Instead of having WR2 potential, both guys are probably low-end flex plays this week. Alternatively, if you’re looking for a low-owned cheap DFS play, you could probably throw in Danny Amendola in a pinch. The two-time Super Bowl champion thrives in the short part of the field, and Blough could lock on to the security blanket throughout the contest.
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