11 weeks on NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 12 spreads and over/unders. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)
Deshaun Watson had one of the worst games of his career in Week 11, but that’s an outlier performance. By and large, Watson has been incredible and he should return to his elite level of play against the Colts. Indianapolis has a fine defense, but Watson should be able to do what he wants offensively. Even without J.J. Watt, Jacoby Brissett is going to struggle to keep up with Houston’s high-powered offense.
Pick: Texans win, cover spread
Over/Under: 45.5 [Pick: Over]
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
The NFL has figured out Kyle Allen. The former undrafted free agent has played as well as anyone could have hoped, but teams are starting to figure out what does and doesn’t work against him. Over his last four games, Allen is completing just 58.6% of his passes for 255 yards per game, three touchdowns, and nine interceptions. New Orleans has the defensive personnel to make Allen struggle again, and the Panthers defense probably won’t be able to stop Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara.
Pick: Saints win, cover spread
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Under]
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-4)
Brandon Allen has played well during his two games under center and might actually be an upgrade over Joe Flacco. The Denver Broncos are out of the playoff hunt, but they’re a much better team than their 4-6 record indicates. Four of their losses have come by four points or fewer, so this team is capable of putting up a fight. The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile, aren’t as good as their record indicates thanks to their unsustainably-high winning percentage in close games. The Bills should come away with the victory, but it’s going to be close.
Pick: Bills win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 37 [Pick: Over]
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Washington Redskins
With or without Matthew Stafford, the Detroit Lions should be in good shape in this one. The Washington Redskins finally broke their touchdown-free streak in Week 11, but that doesn’t mean this is suddenly a good offense. Bill Callahan is still a bad coach, Dwayne Haskins still isn’t capable of carrying a team, and Washington still doesn’t have any good playmakers outside of Terry McLaurin. Stafford was playing like a top-10 quarterback before his injury, and Jeff Driskel has been adequate in his absence.
Pick: Lions win, cover spread
Over/Under: 42 [Pick: Under]
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5)
The Cleveland Browns finally showed some signs of life on Thursday Night Football, while the Miami Dolphins broke their two-game winning streak. Despite both teams trending in their expected projections, a spread this large is too much to bet against. Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing well, and the Miami Dolphins as a whole are trying to win games. The Browns aren’t completely fixed yet, so this game should be relatively close.
Pick: Browns win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 44 [Pick: Under]
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6.5)
The Chicago Bears are the biggest disappointments in the league and enter Week 12 as huge underdogs to the underwhelming New York Giants. Mitchell Trubisky is terrible, and backup quarterback Chase Daniel isn’t much better. Head coach Matt Nagy doesn’t have a good choice under center, so it’s hard to imagine Chicago’s offense finding life under either quarterback. That said, Chicago still has a strong defense and Daniel Jones loves to turn the ball over. This one should be close, and Chicago should pull a close win.
Pick: Bears win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 40.5 [Pick: Under]
Oakland Raiders (-3) at New York Jets
The New York Jets are starting to heat up and face off against an Oakland Raiders squad which finds itself in the thick of the playoff hunt. Despite their record, the Raiders have yet to win a game by more than eight points despite facing off against some uninspiring competition. Derek Carr is playing well, but the defense is one of the worst in the league. This one could turn into a decent shootout, and the Jets should continue their winning streak thanks to Sam Darnold’s recent run of improved play.
Pick: Jets win
Over/Under: 45.5 [Pick: Over]
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Cincinnati Bengals
Mason Rudolph will play in Week 12, but he won’t have Mike Pouncey along the offensive line. That won’t really matter, as the Steelers face off against what is easily the worst team in the league. Ryan Finley is not an NFL starter, and nobody short of peak Peyton Manning could succeed in this dumpster fire of an offense. Pittsburgh’s turnover-happy defense might outscore the Bengals offense altoghter, so anything Rudolph does is just icing on the cake.
Pick: Steelers win, cover spread
Over/Under: 39 [Pick: Under]
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-2)
Why are the Eagles favored in this one? Seattle might not have a great defense or running game, but that doesn’t matter when Russell Wilson is your quarterback. Outside of MAYBE Lamar Jackson, nobody in football does more to help their team win than the one-time Super Bowl champion. Wilson is playing at an elite level, while Carson Wentz and company just can’t get all the pieces clicking on offense. Lane Johnson might not play in this one, and Wentz is measurably worse without his trusty right tackle.
Pick: Seahawks win, cover spread
Over/Under: 48 [Pick: Over]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Turns out removing Dan Quinn from the equation is all it took to fix the Atlanta Falcons defense. While it’s too late for the Falcons to make a playoff push, they can still save their coaches job with a strong finish. The defense just forced four interceptions in Week 11 and now gets to face off against turnover-prone Jameis Winston. Matt Ryan and company should have no problem moving the ball against Tampa Bay’s terrible secondary and should win this one comfortably.
Pick: Falcons win, cover spread
Over/Under: 51.5 [Pick: Under]
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)
Nick Foles is back, but he sure didn’t look like an improvement over Gardner Minshew in Week 11. The former Super Bowl MVP is one of the most volatile passers in the league, so you never know what you’re going to get on a weekly basis. Ryan Tannehill, meanwhile, has quietly played well as a game manager for the Titans. Jacksonville’s defense is good, but they’re not an elite unit like they were in 2017. This one will be relatively close, but the Titans should win by a touchdown.
Pick: Titans win, cover spread
Over/Under: 41.5 [Pick: Over]
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6)
The New England Patriots offense is not nearly as good as what we’re used to seeing. Tom Brady doesn’t have a single reliable weapon outside of Julian Edelman, the offensive line is a mess, and the running game is nonexistent. The defense is fantastic, but every defense can be picked apart by an elite quarterback. Dak Prescott is playing at a ridiculously high level and should find some success through the air. Picking the Patriots to lose in Foxboro is never a good idea, but this game is going to be close.
Pick: Patriots win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 46 [Pick: Under]
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Jimmy Garoppolo would be the MVP if he could exclusively play the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately for him, he has to face off against other teams. The former second-round pick has struggled when facing teams that actually field a remotely competent defense, and Green Bay should be able to confuse the 49ers franchise passer. Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, might struggle to find success through the air against San Francisco’s elite secondary. This projects as another close game, but the Packers should prevail.
Pick: Packers win
Over/Under: 46 [Pick: Under]
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
How is the spread this close? Lamar Jackson looks unstoppable and Jared Goff looks like a pumpkin. The NFL figured out Sean McVay, and the one-time wonder boy doesn’t know how to adapt. This is the easiest pick of them all, take the Ravens and the points.
Pick: Ravens win, cover spread
Over/Under: 46.5 [Pick: Under]
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