The Philadelphia Eagles are bringing back a familiar face in running back Jay Ajayi. Following injuries to Jordan Howard and Darren Sproles, the Eagles needed some running back depth and brought back a reliable player who knew the playbook. Finding good running backs on the open market is hard to do at this point in the fantasy football season, but Ajayi has been a reliable fantasy weapon in the past. That said, he also is coming back from an ACL tear and hasn’t played football all season. Let’s take a dive into Philadelphia’s running back situation and see if you can trust Ajayi or Miles Sanders moving forward.
Fantasy Football: Jay Ajayi, Miles Sanders Outlook Without Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles
Jay Ajayi Projection
Football is a complex game since every offensive play requires 11 different individuals operating in perfect harmony in order to succeed. Because of this, some may shy away from starting Ajayi just days after signing with the Eagles. While there is a bit of risk, history tells us that players in Ajayi’s situation can be effective for fantasy.
Last year, the Los Angeles Rams signed C.J. Anderson on Tuesday, December 18th and immediately plugged him in as the lead running back. Anderson had never played for Sean McVay in the past, but that didn’t stop him from recording 167 rushing yards and a touchdown during his first week of action. Running back is probably the most plug-and-play position in the league, and Ajayi already knows Philadelphia’s playbook.
Ajayi started the 2018 season with Philadelphia, but only played four games after tearing his ACL. Ajayi has a long history of knee injuries, so he may not have the longest shelf life. However, the Eagles wouldn’t have signed him if he wasn’t healthy enough to play. Nobody is truly safe from injury, but Ajayi shouldn’t carry any additional injury risk in the short term.
Ajayi knows the offense and presumably is healthy enough to handle a full workload. However, that doesn’t mean Doug Pederson is going to give him a large role right off the bat. This is Ajayi’s first NFL action in over a year, and he didn’t have any type of training camp or official offseason workouts. Melvin Gordon is proof positive that these workouts do matter, so Ajayi probably won’t be ready for a full workload. Still, Miles Sanders can’t do it all on his own, so Ajayi should see roughly 10 touches in what projects as a high-scoring game.
Miles Sanders Projection
With Jordan Howard and Darren Sproles injured, Miles Sanders should be the star of the Philadelphia Eagles rushing attack. The Eagles selected Sanders in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, so Philadelphia clearly thinks there’s something special about Sanders.
Sanders is going to see his fair share of carries, and he should be relatively effective with the workload. He’s not as good of a runner as Jordan Howard right now, but he should be able to find holes behind a solid offensive line. Football Outsiders ranks Philadelphia’s offensive line 15th in overall run blocking, which should be enough for a talent like Sanders.
While Sanders is still developing as a runner, he has a chance to have a big game thanks to his pass-catching prowess. While he hasn’t eclipsed three targets in his past four games, he should see more work with Howard out of the way. Jordan Howard wasn’t a difference-maker as a receiver, but he stole snaps from Sanders. More time on the field should translate to more targets, especially since Alshon Jeffery will probably miss Sunday’s contest.
The Matchup
The Philadelphia Eagles have the unenviable task of facing off against the New England Patriots and their fantastic defense. While Lamar Jackson and company were able to put up points against this unit, the Eagles probably won’t find as much success. Lamar Jackson is an athletic freak and his strengths perfectly aligned with New England’s weaknesses. Carson Wentz is a great quarterback, but he doesn’t pose the same threat as Jackson.
The good news is that New England’s biggest weakness comes on the ground. The Patriots have one of the two best secondaries in football, but the front seven can be exploited. According to Sharp Football Stats, New England allows 6.3 yards-per-carry on runs behind left guard and 6.0 yards-per-carry on runs behind right tackle. Football Outsiders backs up New England’s relative running troubles, as they rank the Patriots as the 14th-best run defense in the league.
Because of the matchup and the significant amount of injuries at wide receiver, the Eagles are probably going to win this game on the ground. Miles Sanders is going to see the majority of the work and should end up as a low-end RB2 or a high-end flex play. Jay Ajayi, meanwhile, should record about 10 touches and could be a decent flex play in deeper leagues. You should start Miles Sanders and stash Jay Ajayi, just in case Jordan Howard’s injury costs him a few weeks.
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