Devonta Freeman suffered a foot injury last Sunday, potentially sidelining him for up to two weeks and opening the door for Brian Hill. With Ito Smith on the injured reserve, Hill stands to be one of the best running back waiver wire pickups of the week. It’s rare to find a running back with a guaranteed workload on a powerful offense at this point in the season, but that’s what Hill could be. Let’s take a dive into the numbers and see if Hill truly can be a plug-and-play starter.
Fantasy Football: Brian Hill Outlook Without Devonta Freeman
Brian Hill Projected Usage
Brian Hill started the season as the third running back on the depth chart but now appears to be in strong control of the backfield. After Freeman went down, Hill became “the guy”, recording 20 carries for just 61 yards to go along with one reception for 10 yards and a touchdown. The efficiency wasn’t there, but any running back receiving 20 carries per game is going to carry some fantasy relevance.
It’s also worth noting that Hill had the misfortune of going up against a strong New Orleans Saints defense. Hill and the Falcons face off against the Carolina Panthers in Week 11, which should be a more favorable matchup. Still, Hill isn’t the most talented player, so you shouldn’t expect a high efficiency.
The good news is that efficiency doesn’t really matter when the workload is high. As previously mentioned, Hill recorded 20 carries in Week 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll receive the same workload again. The Falcons planned on having Freeman all day, so they had to improvise with their usage. Fortunately for Hill, the only other running backs on the roster are Qadree Ollison and AAF superstar Kenjon Barner. These players won’t take too many reps away from Hill, so he should see a similar workload in Week 11.
Passing Game Workload
Hill’s ultimate ceiling will be determined by his ability to make plays in the passing game. It’s no secret that targets are more valuable than carries in fantasy football, and that’s especially true in PPR league. Unfortunately for Hill, he doesn’t appear to be much of a threat in the passing game.
Throughout the course of his three-year career, Hill has just six receptions for eight targets. Even with an expanded workload in Week 10, Hill still saw just two targets on the day. There’s always a chance he finds his way into the endzone, but it’s hard to project too many targets going his way.
Don’t expect to see an increased target share now that Hill is officially “the guy”. Devonta Freeman is a considerably better pass-catcher than Hill, and even he didn’t see that many passing game targets. Through his 10 games of action, Freeman only eclipsed four targets on three occasions. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter doesn’t utilize his running backs in the passing game that frequently, and he won’t change his philosophy for Hill.
Ultimately, Brian Hill going to be a high-volume, low-efficiency play until Devonta Freeman returns from his foot injury. While Hill won’t receive many targets or average five yards per carry, he should have complete control of the backfield and receiver 15-20 carries per game. You can grab him right off the waiver wire and you should get RB2 production.
