Detroit Lions running back Kerryon Johnson is done for the foreseeable future, opening up opportunities for sixth-round rookie Ty Johnson. While Detroit reportedly plans on bringing Kerryon back later in the year, Ty Johnson is going to be the guy for at least the next eight weeks. Let’s take a dive into what to expect from Ty Johnson as the lead runner in Detroit’s backfield.
This goes without saying, but this analysis becomes null and void if the Lions add another player to their backfield. The Lions have reportedly been linked with Kenyan Drake, and he would obviously earn the starting spot if he landed in Detroit. However, let’s move forward assuming that Johnson holds on to the starting job.
Fantasy Football: Ty Johnson Outlook Without Kerryon Johnson
Ty Johnson the Player
Ty Johnson first earned some minor fantasy relevance after the Lions parted ways with C.J. Anderson. As previously discussed, Johnson made a name for himself in the preseason and looked like a considerably better player than his sixth-round draft pedigree would imply. During his limited action in the regular season, Johnson has recorded 83 rushing yards on 23 carries for an underwhelming 3.6 yards-per-attempt. He’s added another eight receptions for 35 yards in the passing game, again for an underwhelming 4.4 yards-per-reception. During Week 7, Ty Johnson recorded 29 rushing yards on 10 carries against an admittedly strong Minnesota Vikings defense.
Despite these underwhelming statistics, there are a few things to like about Johnson’s game. Based on his college tape and preseason work, Johnson is a home-run hitter who has the speed and acceleration to make a big play every time he touches the ball. While he still needs to work on his vision, he has the raw tools to be a difference-maker in both the running and passing game.
Obviously, he’s a long way from reaching that ceiling. If he’s to be efficient, he’ll need help from his surroundings. According to Football Outsiders, Detroit currently ranks 14th in adjusted line yards. This stat essentially shows how good an offensive line is at generating open space at the line of scrimmage. The Lions line, while not terrible, won’t be doing too many favors for Johnson. Given Johnson’s raw skill set, he probably won’t be too efficient during his time atop Detroit’s running back depth chart.
Predicting Usage
Ty Johnson isn’t going to be great on a carry-for-carry basis, but efficiency doesn’t really matter if the workload is high. As soon as Kerryon Johnson left the game, Ty Johnson became the clear head of the backfield. This shows that the coaching staff trusts him to be “the guy”, and Detroit’s relatively high-powered offense means that Johnson should have his fair share of carries and scoring opportunities.
Johnson will see a good portion of the work, but this isn’t a Christian McCaffrey scenario by any means. Head coach Matt Patricia loves to rotate his running backs, and that won’t change with Kerryon Johnson on the injured reserve. As of this posting, the only other running back of note on the roster is J.D. McKissic. McKissic excels in the passing game and should see the majority of the running back targets. It’s no secret that targets are more valuable than carries in fantasy football, especially in PPR formats.
Kerryon Johnson entered Week 6 as a solid RB2, and it’s hard to imagine Ty Johnson matching that production. Rushing success has more to do with situation than talent, but talent is still part of the equation. Right now, Ty Johnson simply isn’t as good as Kerryon and won’t be able to maximize his opportunities like Kerryon did. Additionally, McKissic should eat into Johnson’s work in the passing game, which obviously limits his value.
There is no such thing as too many good running backs in fantasy football, so you should put in a claim for Johnson’s services. However, if you land him, you shouldn’t expect anything more than flex production out of the rookie.
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
