NFL Sunday is right around the corner, which means DFS players everywhere are setting their GPP and cash lineups hoping to make some quick coin. Building a cost-effective lineup is no easy task, and there’s a lot of luck that goes into a winning lineup. However, using available data allows us to play the odds and increase the probability of success. Heading into Week 7, these are the best DFS wide receiver values on the market.
Note that I’ve determined these players by creating a model that combines the best of Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Data, Pro Football Reference’s red zone usage, and Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Ultimately, I’ve come up with four different projections: non-adjusted PPR, DVOA adjusted PPR, non-adjusted regression, and DVOA adjusted regression. All prices listed are based on DraftKings pricing for classic tournament play.
Fantasy Football Week 7 – Best DFS Wide Receiver Plays
Superstar – Cooper Kupp
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is a must-start in every single lineup. The wide receiver is priced at $7400, good for the fifth-highest among wide receivers. You need to insert a star into your lineup if you’re to have any chance of bringing home a big prize, and Kupp is the easily the best star player available.
Per my non-adjusted PPR, projection, Kupp is my WR1 with an expected 20.9 fantasy points. Even with his high price tag, Kupp’s 0.0028 fantasy points per dollar are the best in my model. This projection is primarily based on air yards, and Hermsmeyer believes that defenses have a minimal impact on a wide receiver’s impact. When you adjust for defense using Football Outsiders’ DVOA, Kupp is still the WR1 with a projected 23.7 points.
Let’s go one step further and look at projected regression. Kupp has been more efficient than one would expect, so you could argue that he’s due to come back to Earth. However, even when you take regression into account, Kupp is still the WR1 with and without defensive adjustments. Kupp is poised for a fantastic week and should be a top-five receiver at the very least.
DFS Wide Receiver Sleeper Plays
Mike Williams
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams is long overdue for a breakout performance. The Chargers are trying to get him the ball, but he hasn’t been able to answer the call as of yet. Williams only has 303 receiving yards, but he also has an impressive 608 air yards. This 305-yard difference is the largest in the league, which means that Williams is long overdue for a huge game. Additionally, Williams has yet to record a red zone touchdown on his seven targets. Just like the air yards discrepancy, this is also completely unsustainable moving forward. He’s going to have a huge bounce-back game just like Will Fuller did a few weeks ago.
Williams should have a solid day even if he doesn’t have a breakout performance. Based on his usage to date, I have him as the WR11 in non-adjusted PPR and WR20 in DVOA adjusted PPR. However, if he breaks out, he can singlehandedly win you a ton of cash. Right now, Williams is my WR2 in the non-adjusted regression model and the WR5 in the DVOA-adjusted regression model. For just $4600 dollars, you can’t afford to not have him in at least a few of your lineups.
Cole Beasley
If you believe that defenses play a large part in a receiver’s production, then you need to put Cole Beasley into your lineup. Personally, I’m generally of the opinion that a defenses’ impact on a receiver’s production is overrated by the vast majority of fantasy players. However, that opinion goes out the window against the Miami Dolphins. Miami is one of the few teams in the league where you need to start as many opposing players as possible, just based on the favorable matchup. Cole Beasley is cheaper than John Brown, and he should have a better day in DraftKings scoring.
The Dolphins simply cannot stop anyone through the air and are one of the least efficient passing defenses in the league. Beasley is currently averaging a solid 7.8 targets per game, and that number should increase in Week 7. Josh Allen has been surprisingly effective in the short part of the field, and Beasley has been slightly less effective than a league-average receiver up to this point in the season. He’s due for a breakout, and he’s playing the worst defense in football. At $4700, he’s an absolute steal.
Christian Kirk OR KeeSean Johnson
As of this posting, nobody knows whether or not Christian Kirk is going to suit up in Week 7. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury said he won’t start Kirk until he’s 100%, and there’s a very real chance he makes his return against the New York Giants. If he does, he’s a must-play. Based on usage prior to his injury, I have Kirk projected as the WR9 in non-adjusted and the WR6 in DVOA-adjusted formats. He’s actually been less efficient than expected, so he’s due to regress to league-average efficiency. Additionally, Kyler Murray has improved since Kirk’s initial injury, which will only help Kirk receive more opportunities in the passing game.
If Kirk can’t suit up, KeeSean Johnson is a good high-ceiling play with a low projected ownership. When factoring in DVOA, I have KeeSean Johnson at the top of my list of players overdue for a breakout. With Kirk on the sidelines, the Cardinals have been trying to make KeeSean Johnson a viable part of the offense. It hasn’t worked so far, but that opportunity should remain as long as Kirk cannot play. Putting Johnson in your lineup allows you use your salary cap space on a true star at another position while still allowing the possibility of a huge game.
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