Alvin Kamara reportedly has a high ankle sprain, creating a path for Latavius Murray to have fantasy football relevance. Kamara is one of the best running backs in the league, and Murray won’t be able to completely replicate his production. However, history shows that anyone taking carries for the Saints is going to have some sort of fantasy relevance. Let’s break down what to expect from Murray in the upcoming week.
Update: Alvin Kamara is OUT for Week 7’s matchup against the Chicago Bears.
Fantasy Football: Latavius Murray Outlook Without Alvin Kamara
Latavius Murray Himself
With Kamara out, Latavius Murray should have complete control of the backfield. Outside of Murray, the only other running backs on the roster are Dwayne Washington and the newly-signed Zach Zenner. As far as projections go, it’s hard to imagine either player dramatically eating into Murray’s workload. For the time being, this is very much Murray’s show.
Historically, talent doesn’t matter when it comes to being the Saints running back. Sean Payton is one of the best offensive minds in the league and excels at scheming wide-open targets to running backs. Additionally, New Orleans has one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league and can create wide-open running lanes on a consistent basis.
However, Murray’s ceiling is limited with Drew Brees sidelined. Part of the reason the Saints running back has been such a valuable fantasy commodity is that Drew Brees creates an efficient, high-powered offense which leads to tons of scoring opportunities. Teddy Bridgewater, unsurprisingly, hasn’t been able to replicate that type of success since earning the starting spot. Alvin Kamara, normally a top-three running back, has only been the RB7 since Week 3. This is obviously still very good, but Kamara hasn’t been the same without Brees.
You can expect a similar result out of Murray. Murray’s lack of talent relative to Kamara naturally drops him down the projected rankings, but Brees’ absence only further limits his ceiling. Before you take the matchup into account, Murray is probably a fringe-RB1/RB2. However, you need to consider the matchup, and Murray faces a bad one in Week 7.
The Matchup
Latavius Murray and the New Orleans Saints face the unenviable task of going up against the Chicago Bears defense. Chicago’s defense, while not quite as good as 2018, is still one of the best all-around units in the league. Josh Jacobs found some success on the ground last week, but that’s probably a one-week outlier performance. This defense is still legit, and it’s going to make running the ball a difficult task.
Through six weeks of action, Chicago actually ranks a surprising 15th in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. This bodes well for Murray, although it should be noted that fantasy points per game isn’t adjusted to level of competition. For this reason, it’s better to use a stat like DVOA to get a better understanding of how a defense performs relative to the expected competition.
According to Football Outsiders, Chicago has the eighth-best run defense and sixth-best passing defense in the NFL. This is still one of the elite units in the league, and this projects as a low-scoring affair. Murray’s going to have a full workload, but he won’t move the ball that efficiently or receive many scoring opportunities. You can still start Murray and expect low-end RB2 production, but don’t expect him to put together a league-winning performance.
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
