Six weeks on NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 7 spreads. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 7 Spreads, Game Picks, and Over/Under
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
The Kansas City Chiefs are riding a two-game losing streak while the Denver Broncos are riding a two-game winning streak. Momentum appears to favor the Broncos, but the Chiefs are set to bounce back and right the ship on Thursday Night Football. Joe Flacco is playing better than many suspected he could, but he’s not ready to go blow-for-blow with Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes hasn’t been his same dominant self over the past two or three weeks, but he’s still a top-two quarterback in the NFL. Now that he has Tyreek Hill back, this offense should go back to being the unstoppable juggernaut that we’re all used to.
Pick: Chiefs win, cover spread
Over/Under: 50 [Pick: Under]
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The Oakland Raiders are off to an impressive 3-2 start and are actually playing at a level that matches their record. Derek Carr isn’t playing quite as well as he did in 2016, but he’s still better than he was in 2017 and most of 2018. The defense, meanwhile, has improved from a bottom-five unit to league-average. The Raiders can keep it close, but they’re not ready to go on the road and beat the Packers. Even in a down year, Aaron Rodgers is still a good quarterback, and he’s playing with his best defense since 2010. This should be a fun game to watch, but one that the Packers ultimately win.
Pick: Packers win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 46.5 [Pick: Under]
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
Bet on this game now before the line changes. The Los Angeles Rams are coming off a disappointing game where Jared Goff didn’t even reach 100 passing yards. The offense, by and large, hasn’t looked right all season. Fortunately, the Atlanta Falcons are the perfect fix for the Rams’ struggling offense. Atlanta is a bottom-five defense and Matt Ryan hasn’t been able to singlehandedly save this dumpster fire of a team. The Rams should move the ball at will and the defense should get just enough stops to earn a comfortable victory.
Pick: Rams win, cover spread
Over/Under: 53 [Pick: Over]
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) at Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins are so bad that they only beat the Miami Dolphins by one point. Bill Callahan believes in an outdated offensive philosophy revolving around body blows and running Adrian Peterson up the gut as many times as humanly possible. That might have been enough to beat Miami, but it won’t be enough to take down the mighty San Francisco 49ers. Peterson won’t average five yards-per-carry in this one, and Case Keenum isn’t good enough to pull off an upset when he’ll only be throwing on third and long situations.
Pick: 49ers win, cover spread
Over/Under: 42.5 [Pick: Under]
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
The Houston Texans are somehow the underdogs in this one. The Indianapolis Colts have played well, and they have homefield advantage. However, Houston is fresh off a surprise win over the Kansas City Chiefs, Deshaun Watson is playing at a top-five level, and the defense is a fringe top-10 unit. Jacoby Brissett is a solid quarterback, but if the Colts are going to win, they’ll need to execute a similar gameplan to Week 5 against the Chiefs. It’s hard to pull off that trick twice, so go with the Texans in this one.
Pick: Texans win, cover spread
Over/Under: 48.5 [Pick: Over]
Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Detroit Lions
The Minnesota Vikings appear to have figured out their offense. After using Dalvin Cook as their only offensive weapon in the first four weeks, Mike Zimmer finally found a way to get Kirk Cousins and the passing game clicking. Adam Thielen is coming off two consecutive strong games while Stefon Diggs just had arguably the best game of his career. When this team is firing on all cylinders, they’re hard to stop. The Detroit Lions have a solid roster, and they should keep this one close. However, a one-point spread is just a little too low.
Pick: Vikings win, cover spread
Over/Under: 44 [Pick: Under]
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
Why is this only a three-point spread? The Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t elite on either side of the ball, but they should be able to comfortably take care of business against this Cincinnati Bengals unit. Andy Dalton is the sum of the parts around him, and he has basically nothing to work with this year. The offensive line might be the worst in the league and Tyler Boyd is the only healthy playmaker of note on the roster. The Bengals complement a subpar offense with perhaps the worst non-Miami defense in the league. Gardner Minshew and company should have no problem moving the ball, and the defense should keep Dalton in check.
Pick: Jaguars win, cover spread
Over/Under: 44 [Pick: Under]
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3)
Daniel Jones came back to Earth after an impressive debut, but he gets to face off against the worst defense he’s seen in his young career. Even with Patrick Peterson back in the mix, Arizona still boasts one of the worst defenses in the league. Jones should move the ball easily enough, but Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals should be able to match Jones on a blow-for-blow basis. New York’s defense is just as bad as Arizona’s, and the Cardinals have demonstrated an ability to put up points against bad defenses. This one’s going to go down to the wire, but the Cardinals should be able to pull off the upset.
Pick: Cardinals win, cover spread
Over/Under: 49.5 [Pick: Over]
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans [EVEN]
This game isn’t going to be fun to watch. Philip Rivers hasn’t looked like himself all year, and the Chargers are one of the most injury-riddled teams in the league. The offensive line is a mess, the defense isn’t playing up to the sum of its parts, and Keenan Allen has cooled off after a hot start. The Titans, meanwhile, benched Marcus Mariota in Week 6 and could move forward with Ryan Tannehill in the ultimate lateral move. This one is going to be ugly, but go with the Chragers in this one. Tannehill hasn’t played well since 2015, and the Chargers should get a boost from a healthy Hunter Henry.
Pick: Chargers win
Over/Under: 40.5 [Pick: Over]
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-16.5)
The Dolphins have to face a real team again, so pick Buffalo. It’s really that simple.
Pick: Bills win, cover spread
Over/Under: 39.5 [Under]
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-4)
The Baltimore Ravens defense is an active liability, and Lamar Jackson has cooled off from his hot start. The same cannot be said for Russell Wilson, who is the odds-on favorite to win MVP at this point of the season. While Seattle’s current defense is a far cry from the Legion of Boom, it should do enough to slow Jackson and the Ravens. This would be a blowout if it weren’t for Brian Schottenheimer’s obsessive insistence on running the ball as much as humanly possible. This will be a close one, but Seattle should prevail.
Pick: Seahawks win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 50.5 [Pick: Under]
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-4)
Teddy Bridgewater is no Drew Brees, but he’s good enough to captain this talented roster. The Saints have yet to lose with Bridgewater at the helm, and that shouldn’t change in Week 7. The Chicago Bears are going to roll out Chase Daniel again, which is bad news for everyone involved. This is going to be another low-scoring affair, but the Saints know how to win these types of games with Bridgewater.
Pick: Saints win, cover spread
Over/Under: 39 [Pick: Under]
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Two of the most disappointing teams in the league face off on Sunday Night Football. After a 3-0 start, the Cowboys dropped three straight and went away from their early innovation back to their stale, bland, and uninspired play-calling. The Eagles, meanwhile, can’t stay healthy on offense and can’t cover anyone on defense. Home field advantage should be enough for the Cowboys to emerge victoriously, but this one is going to down to the final seconds.
Pick: Cowboys win, fail to cover spread
Over/Under: 48 [Pick: Over]
New England Patriots (-10) at New York Jets
Sam Darnold makes the Jets a better team, but let’s not act like this squad is ready to take on the New England Patriots. New England’s defense is on a historical pace and is actually scoring more points than they allow. The offense has struggled to play well for a full 60-minute game, but I’m going to bet on Tom Brady and company figuring it out as the season progresses. This might be close early, but the Patriots should pull away in this matchup.
Pick: Patriots win, cover spread
Over/Under: 42.5 [Pick: Over]
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