Sunday represents a chance for the Chicago Bears to make up ground in the division as the Minnesota Vikings come to town. If the offense can be remotely as effective as it was Week 3 they can do just that.
The Bears missed out on their chance to control the division first when they lost to the Green Bay Packers in the opener. A win Sunday could potentially put them in second in the NFC North. To get it they will have to face a Vikings team that is operating differently than last season. After passing nearly 63 percent of the time in 2018, that number is down to just under 38 percent in 2019.
Chicago Bears Can Make Up Ground with Win Sunday
Put it on the Quarterback
The Bears defense is the best one the Vikings will have faced so far this season. The only comparison is the Packer defense that actually ranks higher in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA metric. The Bears still rank higher in their DAVE metric which projects season-long outlooks based on preseason projections and performance so far.
A major key for the Bears will be to shut down a revitalized rushing attack keyed by a healthy Dalvin Cook and revamped offensive line. Cook, the league’s leading rusher through three weeks, is averaging 6.6 yards per carry and 125 yards per game. That is a far cry from the 20 carries for 51 yards he totaled in the Vikings two losses to the Bears last season.
Fortunately for Chicago, they are fifth in rushing yards allowed and third in rushing defense efficiency. Cook is by far the best back they have faced so far and his dual-threat ability could be problematic. Washington Redskins running back Chris Thompson had success out of the backfield on Monday Night Football against the Bears.
The biggest factor could be the health of Bears defensive lineman Akiem Hicks. He left late in Monday night’s contest with a knee injury and is listed as a game-time decision. Head coach Matt Nagy also said he expects him to be ok, a good of a sign as any at the moment. If the Bears shut down the run, they could force Cousins to do his best Case Keenum impersonation.
Rinse and Repeat Offense
They might not even want to rinse to be perfectly honest. Last week’s offensive explosion was a sight for sore Bears fan eyes. Mitchell Trubisky finally put points on the board and did so in bunches. In the two games against Minnesota last season, Trubisky completed over 66 percent of his passes for 328 yards one touchdown and two interceptions.
He was also injured in the first meeting and missed the two following games. That is where Nagy needs to repeat. After a whopping total of 12 non-quarterback carries in Week 1, Chicago had 28 and 19 such carries against the Denver Broncos and Redskins, respectively. Minnesota is allowing the 13th-most rushing yards in 2019.
They are 11th against the pass so while they are better there than against the ground attack, there are still plays to be made. But Trubisky and Nagy will need to be leery of a Vikings front that got to Matt Ryan and Derek Carr four times apiece (and Aaron Rodgers twice). Pass protection was an issue in Week 1 and again in the first half Week 3.
Nagy seemed to find his groove calling plays in the last game. He has run the ball more, an obvious adjustment. He also seemed to change how Trubisky read the field. It looked like Allen Robinson was moved down in the progression order. That would normally be a negative, but knowing the connection Robinson and Trubisky have it made sense to have the quarterback look elsewhere before relying on his favorite target
Bears Can Make Up Ground
Prior to last season, the Vikings had beaten the Bears three-straight times. Prior to last season, Kirk Cousins was a perfect 2-0 against them. Chicago won both games last season; the second meeting fairly handily. But Trubisky didn’t play particularly well in either. He will need to be closer to Mitch in Washington than Mitch facing Green Bay or in Denver for the Bears to make up ground in the NFC North.
PREDICTION: After happening upon their formula for success last week, the Bears follow it to another victory against a very similarly constructed opponent. Bears 28 Vikings 17
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