Michael Thomas and Julio Jones are two of the best wide receivers in fantasy football, and both players are going off the board at the end of the first round. These two are among the best in the game, and both should have fantastic seasons. However, when factoring in upside and probable projections, you should make Julio Jones your preferred draft target.
Fantasy Football: Draft Michael Thomas Over Julio Jones
False Reliability Narratives
Early-round drafting is all about minimizing risk while maximizing upside. Outside of DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams, it’s hard to find a safer player with a higher upside than Julio Jones. Last year, Jones recorded 113 receptions for a league-leading 1,677 yards and eight touchdowns. Nobody denies that Jones has the ability to singlehandedly win you a fantasy week, but some worry about his perceived inconsistencies. However, a closer look at the numbers shows that Jones has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in fantasy over the past two seasons.
Last year, Jones recorded at least 10 fantasy points (PPR scoring) in 15 of his 16 games. Michael Thomas, meanwhile, only hit that threshold 12 times. In fairness, one of Thomas’ “bust” performances came in a meaningless Week 17 matchup where Drew Brees didn’t play. However, the fact remains that Jones had a better floor and higher ceiling than Thomas in 2018, and that should continue moving forward.
Jones’ weekly reliability wasn’t a one-year fluke. Back in 2017, Jones hit the 10-point threshold in 13 of his 16 games. He managed to do this with Steve Sarkisian as his offensive coordinator, which truly speaks to his greatness. Anyone who believes Jones can’t give you consistent weekly performances is simply stuck in 2014. Recent history tells us that you can put Jones in your lineup each and every week without having to worry about a bust performance.
Some worry about injuries with Julio Jones, but they really shouldn’t. No player is completely safe from injuries, but Jones doesn’t carry any more risk than the average player. While he does have a history of foot problems, said ailments haven’t kept him off the field. Jones has played a full 16-game season in each of the past two seasons and only has one season where he failed to play in 13 games.
Julio Jones 2019 Projection
Now that we’ve established Jones can be consistent in fantasy football, let’s take a look at his overall projection. Last year, Jones finished as the WR4 in PPR formats while recording 113 receptions for a league-leading 1,677 yards and nine touchdowns. This high yardage total is nothing new for Jones, as the Falcons superstar led the league in yards per game in three of the past four seasons.
There is every reason to believe that Julio Jones will have similar success in 2019. Atlanta is going to throw the ball early and often, and Jones is going to see the majority of the targets. Calvin Ridley could take a jump in Year Two, but he’s never going to be better than Jones. Matt Ryan is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and Atlanta’s going to have one of the NFL’s most pass-happy attacks. This means a lot of targets for Jones, which means a lot of fantasy points.
Adding to the positive projections is Atlanta’s schedule. It’s no secret that passing attacks are more effective in domes when teams don’t have to play in the elements. Fortunately for Atlanta, the Falcons play 13 of their 16 games in domes. This should give him an extra boost on the season-long rankings, and he could end 2019 as the WR1.
Michael Thomas 2019 Projection
Michael Thomas is going to be good, but he won’t be as good as Julio Jones. Last year, Thomas recorded 125 receptions for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns while finishing as the WR6 in PPR scoring. These numbers look fantastic on the surface, but they could take a dip in 2019.
Thomas ended the year with a ridiculous 85.0% catch rate. Michael Thomas is a fantastic player, but this catch rate is simply unsustainable. When looking at his target rate, Thomas actually saw two fewer targets in 2018 than he did in 2017. In 2017, Thomas recorded 104 receptions for 1,245 yards and five touchdowns. This numbers still make him a WR1, but he’s well behind Julio. If he sees a similar amount of targets, his final stat line will probably come closer to his 2017 numbers than 2018.
Additionally, the Saints are trying to take some of the workload away from Drew Brees. Now entering his age-40 season, head coach Sean Payton is hoping for the running game to play a bigger role in New Orleans’ quest for a championship. Brees’ passing attempts have dropped in each of the previous three seasons, and that trend could continue in Brees’ age-40 season.
At the end of the day, Julio Jones offers similar consistency and a higher ceiling than Michael Thomas. Jones should see more yards and targets, and Thomas will likely see some regression in efficiency this year. Both players are going to have great seasons, but Jones should be your top choice at the end of the first.
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