After suffering an ACL injury in 2018, Washington Redskins running back Derrius Guice appears ready to get back on the field. Guice was a top talent in college, yet the knee injury has fantasy football owners worried about his production. Latavius Murray isn’t as talented as Guice, but his situation and opportunity make him a safer pick than Guice. These two are going with consecutive picks, so make sure you grab Murray instead of Guice.
Fantasy Football: Draft Latavius Murray Over Derrius Guice
The Case for Latavius Murray
Latavius Murray isn’t going to start, but he’ll be a key piece of one of the most valuable backfields in the NFL. Head coach Sean Payton loves utilizing his running backs, and Murray is going to essentially take over the Mark Ingram role in the offense. Last year, Ingram was the RB27 on a points-per-game basis, making him a capable streamer even though he was splitting snaps with Alvin Kamara. In 2017, Ingram finished as the RB6 in standard-scoring formats.
Even with Murray out of the way, Payton said that he’s still going to use a committee approach for the backfield. Payton doesn’t believe Kamara can handle a full workload, so you should expect similar results out of Murray in 2019. While Murray isn’t quite as good in the passing game as Ingram, he’s an absolute monster in the red zone. Murray has never had fewer than six touchdowns since his rookie season and has 53 career rushing touchdowns from inside the red zone. The Saints are going to score early and often, so Murray should have plenty of touchdown opportunities.
Additionally, Murray is going to be one of the most valuable handcuffs in all of fantasy football. Should Kamara stay healthy, you can comfortably stream Murray in any format. Should something happen to Kamara, Murray becomes an RB1 with league-winning potential. The Saints don’t have a known commodity behind Murray, so he should see the vast majority of the work if Kamara goes down. Considering Murray’s going off the board late in the sixth round, he’s a great pickup in any format.
The Case Against Derrius Guice
Derrius Guice was a great talent coming out of college, but nobody knows how he’ll look on the NFL stage. Guice tore his ACL back in 2018 and had a long, grueling rehab with multiple setbacks. Nobody knows if Guice can consistently find his old explosiveness, as he’s only had 11 carries in the preseason. He’s looked comfortable in that small sample, but you need to see it in a meaningful game before you truly know if he’s fully recovered.
Even if he can regain his old explosiveness, Jay Gruden probably won’t give him a full workload. Thanks to his knee injury, Guice will probably be slowly worked back into the offense. Adrian Peterson is still in town, and he’s coming off a surprising 1,000-yard season. Peterson simply refuses to age and could earn starter snaps over Guice to begin the year. Even if Guice is the starter, you can expect a shared workload for the majority of the season.
Even if Guice gets a full workload, he’s taking carries in one of the worst offenses in football. When looking around the league, it’s hard to find a team with less offensive talent than the Washington Redskins. Dwayne Haskins isn’t ready to start, so Case Keenum is going to lead the offense. Paul Richardson is the best wide receiver on the team, and the offensive line will be one of the worst if Trent Williams continues to hold out. There are no playmakers on the offense, and Guice isn’t good enough to carry this roster like a 2012 Adrian Peterson. Considering Chris Thompson will probably see the majority of the passing work, this is a backfield you should try to avoid in fantasy. Guice might be more talented than Murray, but Murray has a significantly better situation.
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