The Twitterverse exploded when the Houston Texans traded for disgruntled Cleveland Browns running back Duke Johnson. Houston gave up a third-round pick for his services, and all of a sudden Johnson looked like a viable fantasy football option. Upon the initial trade, I wrote an article telling people not to fall in love with Duke Johnson. It looks like people took that advice too far.
Duke Johnson isn’t going to be an RB1 by any means, but he’s currently being drafted later than Lamar Miller. That’s completely unjustifiable, as Houston has more invested in Johnson than Miller and Johnson has a better skill set. If you’re looking at a Texans running back, make sure to take Duke Johnson over Lamar Miller
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Draft Duke Johnson Over Lamar Miller in Fantasy Football
Talent Level and Fantasy Value
Duke Johnson is simply more talented than Lamar Miller. While Miller has experience being a workhorse back, Johnson profiles as his equal as a runner. Over the past three seasons, Johnson has carried the ball 195 times for 907 yards and five touchdowns, good for 4.7 yards-per-carry. Miller, meanwhile, has averaged 4.1 yards-per-carry in his three years with Houston. It’s obviously harder to sustain a high yards-per-carry with an increased workload, so that can explain some of the disparity between the two players. That said, Johnson has shown the ability to be a competent runner between the tackles.
Johnson’s a capable runner, but he’ll generate most of his fantasy value in the passing game. Receptions are significantly more valuable than carries for running backs, and that’s especially true in PPR scoring formats. Duke Johnson is one of the NFL’s best receiving backs from both a talent perspective and an efficiency standpoint. According to Warren Sharp of Sharp Football, Johnson ranked second in yards-per-play (5.8), third in explosive play rate, and seventh in success rate (52%) among running backs on early-down targets.
He’s a genuine threat out of the backfield, which is more than we can say about Lamar Miller. Since joining the Texans, Miller has never eclipsed 36 receptions, 327 yards, or three receiving touchdowns in a single season. Even that year was an outlier, as Miller never recorded more than 188 yards or one touchdown in his other two years in Houston.
Duke Johnson’s Opportunity
Duke Johnson might have the better skill set, but opportunity is king in the world of fantasy football. If Lamar Miller continues to see a majority of the workload, then Johnson won’t have fantasy relevance in 2019. Fortunately, all signs point towards Johnson seeing a large chunk of the workload in the upcoming season.
After deciding to part ways with D’Onta Foreman, the Texans sent a third-round pick to the Browns in exchange for Johnson’s services. This type of investment is significant when running backs are getting more and more devalued by the day. Houston wouldn’t have given up this type of draft capital if they weren’t planning on giving him a sizable role in the offense.
This isn’t the first time the team has tried to replace Lamar Miller. Back in 2017, Houston used a third-round pick on the aforementioned D’Onta Foreman. That obviously didn’t work out, in large part due to Foreman’s Achilles injury and subpar work ethic. However, the fact remains that the Texans are consistently using noteworthy assets in an attempt to limit Lamar Miller’s role in the offense. If everything goes to plan, this should be a committee approach, and Duke Johnson might actually see a higher percentage of the snaps.
Duke Johnson Vs Lamar Miller Average Draft Position
As of this posting, Fantasy Football Calculator has Duke Johnson going off the board with the 119th pick in half-point scoring formats. By comparison, Lamar Miller is being selected with the 63rd overall pick. This is absolutely ridiculous for a number of reasons, and smart fantasy football owners will know to pass on Miller for Johnson.
Duke Johnson probably won’t be an RB2 at the end of the season. Even though he has a great skill set and a promising opportunity, there are a few things working against him. As mentioned in an earlier article, Houston’s offensive line is one of the NFL’s worst and won’t create many running lanes. In a similar vein, Bill O’Brien doesn’t have the best track record at generating targets for running backs. Duke Johnson is going to be a strong flex play for the majority of the season, while Lamar Miller will be nothing but a benchwarmer. Take Johnson in the sixth or seventh and let someone else make the mistake of grabbing Miller early.
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