The tight end position is easily the hardest position to nail in fantasy football. There are three elite players in Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle, a handful of average players, and a whole lot of nothing after that. Due to the lack of depth at the position, fantasy football owners are taking the elite three early in their fantasy football drafts.
Travis Kelce is easily the top option, but there is some debate about the TE2 spot. As of this posting, Fantasy Football Calculator has Ertz and Kittle going back-to-back in half-point scoring formats. While both players will have great seasons, George Kittle should be your first target.
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Fantasy Football: Draft George Kittle Over Zach Ertz
The Case for George Kittle
George Kittle’s 2018 season was nothing short of historic. Appearing in all 16 games, Kittle recorded 88 receptions for 1,377 yards and five touchdowns. He broke the all-time receiving yardage record for a tight end, and his success wasn’t due to just one or two big games. Kittle only had four games where he failed to record 70 yards, and that type of consistency is nearly impossible to find from a tight end.
The good news is that this success appears to be completely sustainable. Kittle played with three quarterbacks in 2018 and never suffered a drop off in performance. Given Jimmy Garoppolo’s sketchy injury history, this consistency throughout the depth chart is absolutely invaluable. Some players like T.Y. Hilton see their fantasy stock plummet without their quarterback, but Kittle is immune to such risk.
Additionally, he’s still the clear-cut top option in San Francisco’s passing game. As of this posting, the 49ers don’t have a player currently ready to challenge Kittle for the top role in the offense. Dante Pettis looked poised to have a breakout season, but he’s had a rough camp and might not even start. Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd both have some potential, but both players are rookies, and rookie wide receivers notoriously need a year or two before they’re ready to legitimately contribute.
George Kittle might not break the tight end yardage record again, but he should increase his touchdown rate. Kittle recorded just five touchdowns on his 136 targets, and that number is going to go up just by dumb luck alone. Kittle might not be a Rob Gronkowski-level red zone threat, but he has the potential to be a 10-touchdown guy. Even if the yardage goes down, his increase in touchdowns should make up for it.
The Case Against Zach Ertz
Obviously, Zach Ertz was fantastic in 2018. The Philadelphia Eagles’ tight end had the best year of his career, recording 116 receptions for 1,163 yards and eight touchdowns. This was a fantastic season by just about every measure and solidified him as an elite fantasy tight end moving forward. He’s going to be good in 2019, but don’t expect the same results this season.
Regression is coming, and it’s going to hit Zach Ertz hard. Prior to 2018, Ertz never exceeded 112 targets in a single season. Last year, he got 156. This is an unsustainably-high target share, and Ertz won’t get as many looks in 2019. As previously mentioned, Kittle is a lock for a large target percentage thanks to his status as the teams’ unquestioned top receiver.
That isn’t the case for Ertz, as Philadelphia has an abundance of riches on offense. Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside form arguably the best top-to-bottom depth chart in the league and will each get their fair share of targets. As if that wasn’t enough, the Eagles also drafted a pass-catching running back in Miles Sanders and have Dallas Goedert entering his second season in the league. Ertz will still get his share of targets, but he won’t come close to matching his career-high of 156.
The combination of Jeffery and Arcega-Whiteside could negatively affect Ertz’ fantasy value. Both players excel at winning jump balls and outmuscling their defenders, which means they should be a formidable red zone duo. This very easily could take red zone targets away from Ertz, which is obviously bad news for his fantasy value.
It’s hard to tear Ertz apart, as he will be the third-best fantasy tight end by a wide margin. However, Kittle is the unquestioned top option in his passing attack, should get more touchdowns, and is probably the better player in a vacuum. If you’re thinking about a tight end late in the third round, make Kittle your guy.
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